Forest are going through a bit of a down period which can probably be expected considering how good their form had been up to that point. Very few will have expected them to be where they are in the league at this point stage but, given that they are there, they will be desperate to do anything they can to hold onto it. Fans are already dreaming of a new European adventure next year.
Despite three losses in their last five league games they can still take heart that they have also drawn against Arsenal and battered Brighton 7-0 during that period, as well as reaching the quarter finals of the FA Cup. Star striker Chris Wood has continued scoring and Anthony Elanga, Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi have remained dangerous in behind.
What has changed is that they haven’t been as solid in defence. They have conceded 11 goals in those last 5 games whereas it took them 11 games prior to that to concede the same number. Whether this is down to fatigue, is just a blip or is down to teams beginning to work them out better remains to be seen.
Like Forest, City have been using a good cup run to distract themselves from patchy league form. They have recently recorded very good wins against Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs, but have also been well-beaten by Arsenal and Liverpool in the same period. This just goes to show the power shift that has happened this season.
To be fair to Pep Guardiola, he looked at the way his City team had been playing and decided that change was needed rather than just sticking to his guns. Bedding in quite a few new players in mid-season is a risky strategy to take but there wasn’t much that could have got worse and some of the new signings, particularly Marmoush and Gonzalez, have settled in very quickly. The team now look like they will comfortably secure a top 4 slot.
It is also good news that Rodri has been pictured in training again. When he returns to the team, Pep can start putting together what may be some form of his starting eleven for next season which will benefit him in getting the current defending champions off to a good start in regaining the crown which they will surely relinquish this year.
Verdict
Our algorithm is leaning towards a City win here, giving them a 54% chance of victory compared to just a 20% likelihood for their hosts. This would seem to make sense based on the recent history of the teams but also on recent form.
Forest will be hoping that their home advantage will provide them with more of an opportunity, as it did recently against Arsenal, but their defence will need to find their solid edge again to get something out of this game.
Other Possible Bets
Almost incredibly in modern football, City have gone three league games without having a player booked. They are conceding under 10 fouls a game and you can get them at 5/1 to not see yellow again here.
Although City have improved a bit defensively in recent matches, most teams have really struggled to contain Chris Wood. Forest will be happy to sit in and attack on the counter which has worked well for them so far and you can get 6/1 for the big Kiwi to score first or 2/1 any time.
