So, we’re over halfway through the Six Nations now. Who’s where? Who’s still in with a chance? Let’s have a look and see …
Week 3 Results
Ireland and France were predicted to win comfortably and although they both won, their paths were somewhat different. Ireland came good in the end, although Wales gave them a real scare for a while.
France however, had no such worries. They blew Italy away in an incredible display, scoring 11 tries and winning by just shy of 50 points.
England and Scotland played perhaps the match of the round, with England narrowly edging out the Scots in a tense encounter in Twickenham that went right down to the wire. Finn Russell missed a kick that would have given the Scots their first ever 5 match winning streak over the English, but in truth the Scots should have won the game before then. They had plenty of opportunities, and the English kicked their penalties and did what was necessary to take the win.
Updated Tournament Chances
So how does the tournament look now?
🇮🇪 Ireland are starting to take a real grip on the tournament, and after round 3 now have 2 in 3 chance of winning overall, with a near 60% chance of the Grand Slam.
🏴 England’s win over France in Allianz has been the main contributing factor to these increased Irish chances so far, with that match taking a real chunk out of the French chances, and giving it nearly all to the Irish. Sadly for the English, given they have already lost to the Irish, this unexpected victory didn’t improve their chances of the title too much. However, they are now odds on favourites for second place given they still have Italy and Wales to come.
🇫🇷 France are more likely to take 1st or 3rd now than 2nd now, but if they win both their remaining matches they have a reasonable chance of the title. But if they lose one then they are likely to finish 3rd.
🏴 For Scotland it looks like another 4th place. This was always the most likely position for the Scots given the away fixture in Twickenham, but a good win over Wales in Murrayfield may at least give them something to play for on Super Saturday.
🇮🇹 Italy are likely to take that 5th place finish for the second year in a row. Sadly for them, with England and Ireland still to come, they are unlikely to be able to finish much higher.
🏴 Wales are our wooden spoon favourites. However, a much improved performance against Ireland at the weekend may have given them some hope that they can still spring an upset or two!
What do the bookies say?
The bookies are pretty close to what the Algorithm says, although are still a little more bullish on France. Around a 2 in 3 chance of an Irish victory, although they also give France a fairly reasonable chance.
This is perhaps due to the fact that the markets are giving France a pretty high chance of winning in Dublin. As can be seen below the bookies have that game at a near 50:50, while the Algo thinks it is closer to 70:30 in favour of Ireland. Based on these percentages and odds, Ireland are well worth a bet. They’ve only lost 4 times in their last 50 or so matches at the Aviva so whilst it is certainly possibly the French can win, they’ll be up against it.
The Grand Slam
Again, with similar logic to the above, Ireland now look like a good bet for the Grand Slam as can be seen below, although it’s fairly close. However, if you took the ‘No Grand Slam’ bet pre tournament then this might be a good chance to hedge that bet!
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below.
