And here we are. Super Saturday again!
Who needs what to win? Let’s take a look below …
Results
One of the upsets that we’d usually ‘expect’ occurred last week, but perhaps it was a little heavier than we might have thought! The French put in a mammoth performance in Dublin, inflicting just the 6th Irish defeat at home in the last 10 years – and certainly the heaviest – with a 15 point win.
Updated Tournament Chances
This has firmly put the French in the driving seat for the title, with their victory over the Irish giving them an 85% chance of lifting the title this weekend.
The large shift from last weekend, when the Irish had around a 65% chance of the title, is largely because of the French 4 try bonus point along with the Irish failing to get even a losing bonus point.
Ireland can reach a maximum of 19 points with a 4 try bonus point win over Italy, which means that the French need just a win over Scotland to put themselves beyond Irish reach (and English too realistically) on 20 points.
The Irish bonus point woes go further when you remember they allowed the English to get 2 losing bonus points in their match. This has lifted the English above the Irish in the current standings, and gives the English the advantage going into the final weekend, and will likely condemn the Irish to 3rd place. Every point matters! And points mean prizes …
What do the bookies say?
The bookies are pretty close to what the Algorithm says, with the only value currently looking like the English where odds of 11 are currently available. It is a bit of a long shot though, and requires Scotland to do them a favour …
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below.
Super Saturday Predictions
Super Saturday looks like it could be a brilliant set of matches, with the scheduling and order lining up perfectly. Third, second and first will know what they need to do in order to win leading into their match with each able to lay down a gauntlet for the next to follow.
If all goes to plan, then Ireland 🇮🇪 will beat Italy 🇮🇹 with a bonus point and a large points difference lifting them to 19 match points and likely overcoming the English points difference – currently in favour of the English by just 7.
England 🏴 will then need to beat Wales 🏴 with a bonus point to lift themselves to 20 match points and cleanly above the Irish again. If they fail to get a bonus point then the battle with the Irish will come down to points difference.
France 🇫🇷 will then require just a win over Scotland 🏴 to take the title – which they are clearly strong favourites for – but they will still have to go out and do it … 😬
