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Value Betting

Just what is going on here?

Hello! Welcome – so you’re interested in our Value Betting Analysis services, or want to find out more about how it works. Well, you’ve come to the right place.

Quick Summary

In short, in case you haven’t got any idea what’s going on (we’ve all been there …) here’s a quick rundown:

We’ve built a machine learning algorithm that predicts the outcome of matches and tournaments in sport worldwide;
BASIC: We compare these predictions to the bookmakers odds to look for value; 🔥
PREMIUM: We build on the Value Analysis and use the Kelly Criterion to make specific recommendations for how much and where to place your bet. 📈

LEARN ABOUT OUR PREMIUM KELLY BETTING STRATEGY

Basic Analysis and Value Betting

Value Betting

Value betting is the ability to identify an edge against a bookmaker. If a bet is priced incorrectly, then it offers value. Below we talk through value betting, why it’s a great approach for successful betting and how Sports4Cast helps you do just that. 🤑

Value is a common concept also used in financial investing and the same approach can be used for sports betting – if a bet’s probability of occurring is less than it should be, then there is an opportunity for a value bet 🔥. Don’t worry if that sounds complicated! We’ll talk through it all below with a worked example and it should all become apparent.

Successful bettors and traders understand the difference between the chances of winning a bet and how they compare to the odds available. To be a successful bettor you need to identify value bets and bet on them regardless of how likely or unlikely it is to happen.

Placing a value bet is not as simple as looking for odds on the favourites. You should never bet just on who you ‘think’ is going to win the match – instead you should look for matches in which you think the bookmakers have got the odds wrong, or ‘mispriced’ the match. These are opportunities.

Yes, the favourites is more likely to win than not, but that doesn’t mean they always offer value. The key to long-term successful betting is understanding the probability of an outcome accurately and identifying where the market is out of line.

Probability is the likelihood of an event happening – displayed as a percentage. Betting involves assessing the probability of that event happening – from 0% (impossible) to 100% (certain). Bookmakers are inherently trying to measure that probability and translate it into odds. 🔢

The opportunity for value betting occurs when the odds available are not a true reflection of the probability of the outcome occurring.

Worked Example

Imagine a match where each side has an exactly equal chance of winning – a true 50:50 (ignoring the draw for now). The odds being offered here should be 2.0.

If you bet on this match 100 times (and each side did actually win 50 times each) then you would remain on £0 at the end, neither making profit nor a loss, as you would win £1 fifty times – winning £50 total – and lose £1 the other fifty times – losing £50.

However, let’s say instead the odds offered were actually 3.0 rather than 2.0. This time every time you won you would make £2 instead of £1, and over the course of the 100 matches you would win £2 fifty times – winning £100 and only lose £1 the other fifty times – losing £50. In this situation you would end up £50 in profit at the end. This is a value bet. ✅

Bookies Odds

However, the bookies never offer ‘fair’ odds. The bookies always ensure that the odds are in their favour by adding in their profit margin to both sides of the bet. This is why in all matches and outcomes, their odds never add up to 100% (you can see this across our site). In the above example of the 50:50 match, the odds they would offer would likely be 1.90, instead of 2.0. Therefore over the course of the 100 matches, you would end up down £5. This is not a value bet. ❌

So if bookmaker’s odds are inherently unfair, how can we ever turn a profit?

Estimate Your Own Odds

Like analysts investing in the stock markets, bettors should assessing your own probabilities for an event using all information available to them. By then converting these to odds, you can compare them to the bookmakers odds and notice if a match is undervalued or overvalued.

Thinking in Probabilities

The aim of value betting as we now know is to assess the likelihood of an event more accurately than bookmakers. To do this it is vital you think in probability and assess both teams chances of winning – not just looking to back favourites.

Sports4Cast Betting Analysis

At Sports4Cast we do just that. We have probabilities for thousands of matches and events happening across the world. We then pull in odds for all these matches and events. And as part of our Betting Analysis Services, we compared the two of them to identify any mispricings and value bets. You can see that entire process in the image below 👇

Assess the probabilities (F4C % column)
Convert to odds (Value Threshold column)
Look at bookmakers odds (Best Odds column)
Identify value (Colour coding – green / red / yellow)

This allows you to easily scour the markets every day and quickly and easily see where value exists.

Each match is assessed based on the odds we have found and whether they are above or below the Value Threshold. The best odds are published and colour coded to show whether these odds are value or not.

GREEN

A green bet is a bet that has been identified as value, and the side in question has a reasonable chance of winning. These are recommended matches to consider betting on.

YELLOW

A yellow bet is a bet that has technically been identified as value, but the side in question has a very small chance of winning, or the league is especially risky.

The reason for this is that occasionally value bets are identified by the Algorithm, but the side in question has a tiny chance of winning, with the bookies pricing them with even less chance. This is still a value bet, technically, but the chances of it coming off are so long that you would need to cover a lot of them in order to end up up – something not everyone may wish to do, hence these bets are tagged as yellow.

Depending on your risk appetite you may or may not wish to bet on these matches.

RED

A red bet is a bet that has no value. The bookies have this match priced similarly to The Algorithm and therefore there is no value in betting on it. Avoid these.

Going Further

However, our analysis is not infallible. We do sometimes get it wrong (unbelievable I know!). Therefore you should also assess the outcomes and probabilities, and add your own knowledge on top to assess whether a match is truly value or not, and therefore whether it is worth a bet.

Below shows an example of what the value analysis looks like for a couple of upcoming football matches. This is performed over thousands of matches globally every week. 👇

So - What exactly do I do?

When to check?

We generally check the website on Thursday evening. By this stage most of the weekend matches will have been priced by the bookies and most of the tips will be up. We generally place bets on the matches on Thursday evenings if available, but there may be one or two missing that we need to recheck on Friday or Saturday.

However, the more often you check, the more likely you will find better prices, so it’s really up to you how often you check.

What to do?

We check the betting area, specifically using the ‘Show Value Bets’ button in the table. This filter shows all the value bets that exist right now, so it’s easy to see what matches to look at. We look through all the matches that have been identified as value and pick the best looking ones from there using our own judgement to make the final selections.

We also have Oddschecker (or any other price comparison website) open in another tab to check where the best price is as the odds can - and indeed will! - change so the identified opportunities may not exist if and when you look. We scrape relatively regularly, but it depends on how up to date our sources are. This is where the “Value Thresholds” should be used and you should look for odds over the values suggested for each team.

What to watch out for?

Watch out for the threshold. This is the tipping point at which we calculate value to exist. Above that, and you should consider betting. Below that, definitely not. So watch out for that threshold and any movements around that.

Try not to worry!

It can feel very irritating when you ‘miss’ a bet and lose out on some potential profits. But try not to think too much about this and end up chasing other bets. In the long run, it won’t matter too much and in some cases you may actually miss out betting on matches that lose! So it will all come out in the wash. You aren’t required to wager every time, so try and stay calm and emotionless about the money you are putting down.

Other FAQs

Why don't you just keep quiet and do this yourself?

We do use these to bet ourselves, and quite successfully. However, we see no reason we can't also sell these tips to others as well!

Also, some of our accounts are beginning to be capped on their activity. We're unsure at this stage whether it is because we are successful, or if it is just a blanket policy across certain leagues, but either way, the opportunities are limited doing this solo.

Do you guarantee these tips / advice / that I will make money?

No, obviously not. Ultimately, this can be thought of a little like investing in financial markets under the advice of an experienced investor. We have a strategy and take 'advice' from the Algorithm, which we think gives us an edge over the rest of the market. Indeed, at the moment, this appears to be true.

However, this may not continue, and we can place no guarantees on future profits. Similar to financial advice ("the value of your investment may go down as well as up") - and despite being a predictions site! - we don't actually know what will happen in the future. We think it will continue, and see no reason why our strategy will stop working, but we just can't guarantee that for sure.

Please gamble responsibly. If you are doing this to make a quick profit, or looking for guaranteed winners, this is probably not the thing for you. Don't gamble what you are not prepared to lose, and don't come crying to us if your bet doesn't come off - we cannot guarantee any returns. After all, this is sport - and that's why we love it!

I’ve seen a few of the predictions and tips, and they look really dodgy. What’s up with that?

This is a good question. And we always say, if you disagree with the prediction and/or the tip - then don't bet!

The Algorithm looks at a wide variety of things before a match in order to determine the likely outcome, but it doesn't take into account everything, and it's entirely possible that it may be wrong. If you think the prediction is out, and therefore the tip, you shouldn’t bet.

Always use your intuition on top of the recommendations to decide your course of action. Humans and machines working and thinking together very often produce better results than either operating alone!

Anything else?

That’s probably all for now, if you’ve any other questions - drop us a message and we’ll get back to you as soon as we can. Good luck!