Kelly Betting

So - What exactly do I do?

When to check?

We generally check the website on Thursday evening. By this stage most of the weekend matches will have been priced by the bookies and most of the tips will be up. We generally place bets on the matches on Thursday evenings if available, but there may be one or two missing that we need to recheck on Friday or Saturday. 

However, the more often you check, the more likely you will find better prices, so it’s really up to you how often you check.

What to do?

We check the betting area, specifically using the ‘Show Recommendations’ button in the table. This filter shows all the value bets that have specific Kelly percentage recommendations that exist right now, so it’s easy to see what matches to look at.

We also have Oddschecker (or any other price comparison website) open in another tab to check where the best price is as the odds can - and indeed will! - change so the identified opportunities may not exist if and when you look. We scrape relatively regularly, but it depends on how up to date our sources are. This is where the “Value Thresholds” should be used and you should look for odds over the values suggested for each team.

Try not to worry!

It can feel very irritating when you ‘miss’ a bet and lose out on some potential profits. But try not to think too much about this and end up chasing other bets. In the long run, it won’t matter too much and in some cases you may actually miss out betting on matches that lose! So it will all come out in the wash. You aren’t required to wager every time, so try and stay calm and emotionless about the money you are putting down.

Other FAQs

Why don't you just keep quiet and do this yourself? 

We do use these to bet ourselves, and quite successfully. However, we see no reason we can't also sell these tips to others as well!

Also, some of our accounts are beginning to be capped on their activity. We're unsure at this stage whether it is because we are successful, or if it is just a blanket policy across certain leagues, but either way, the opportunities are limited doing this solo.

Do you guarantee these tips / advice / that I will make money? 

No, obviously not. Ultimately, this can be thought of a little like investing in financial markets under the advice of an experienced investor. We have a strategy and take 'advice' from the Algorithm, which we think gives us an edge over the rest of the market. Indeed, at the moment, this appears to be true.

However, this may not continue, and we can place no guarantees on future profits. Similar to financial advice ("the value of your investment may go down as well as up") - and despite being a predictions site! - we don't actually know what will happen in the future. We think it will continue, and see no reason why our strategy will stop working, but we just can't guarantee that for sure.

Please gamble responsibly. If you are doing this to make a quick profit, or looking for guaranteed winners, this is probably not the thing for you. Don't gamble what you are not prepared to lose, and don't come crying to us if your bet doesn't come off - we cannot guarantee any returns. After all, this is sport - and that's why we love it!

I’ve seen a few of the predictions and tips, and they look really dodgy. What’s up with that? 

This is a good question. And we always say, if you disagree with the prediction and/or the tip - then don't bet! 

The Algorithm looks at a wide variety of things before a match in order to determine the likely outcome, but it doesn't take into account everything, and it's entirely possible that it may be wrong. If you think the prediction is out, and therefore the tip, you shouldn’t bet. 

Anything else?

That’s probably all for now, if you’ve any other questions - drop us a message and we’ll get back to you as soon as we can. Good luck!

• hello@sports4cast.com