Despite the nominal advantage of three home games, the underlying probabilities still point firmly towards another last-place finish.
Welcome to our Preview Series of the Men’s Six Nations 2026. Over the coming days, we’ll break down each team’s chances and identify the key fixtures that will shape their campaigns, as we assess where every side stands heading into what promises to be another compelling championship.
We begin with Wales, working our way up towards the most likely title contenders. That ordering alone says a great deal about the current state of Welsh rugby. Once the benchmark of consistency in this tournament, Wales now enter the Six Nations in the doldrums. In general terms, Wales will be happy with some signs of life, and some green shoots to build upon for next years World Cup. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
Tournament Chances
Wales are in disarray. Behind the scenes there is a potential seismic reorganisation as Ospreys and Cardiff could be unified into one club. This has created all sorts of rancour and argument throughout Welsh regional rugby. This has been reflected by what has been happening on the pitch. Wales are on a run which has seen them slump to 11th in the World Rankings, and in real danger of being overtaken by Japan. Captain and star player, Jac Morgan, is injured and ruled out for the entire tournament to put a further dampener on Welsh hopes.
When we look at the algo and its predictions for the tournament, this view is reinforced and makes for pretty bad reading. Based on 10,000 simulations, Wales are given just an 8% chance of avoiding the bottom two, with a 61% probability of finishing last. A mid-table finish is highly unlikely, and any scenario beyond that would require multiple outcomes breaking their way.
Recent Form
Wales’ last ten matches paint a stark picture. There have been heavy home defeats against South Africa (0–73), New Zealand (26–52), Argentina (28–52) and England (14–68), alongside Six Nations losses to Ireland, Scotland and Italy in 2025. The only wins in that period came against Japan, one at home and one away. More concerning than the results themselves is the consistency of the margins, particularly at home, where Wales have traditionally been a tough nut to crack.
2026 Six Nations Fixtures and Predictions
In theory, this should be a slightly more favourable year for Wales, with three home fixtures and only two away. Those home matches come against France, Scotland and Italy, while the away trips are to England and Ireland. In practice, however, the schedule offers very limited relief. The two away games are effectively non-starters, with Wales given just a 2% chance of winning in England and in Ireland.
That places heavy emphasis on the home fixtures, but even there the outlook is bleak. The first home game against France offers little encouragement, with Wales rated at only an 8% chance of victory. That leaves Scotland in Cardiff, a side expected to be competitive even if they do not always convert potential into results, and Italy on the final weekend in what could amount to a wooden spoon decider. Italy hold a slight edge in that matchup, though it is projected to be the most competitive of Wales’ fixtures.
Taken together with recent form, it is difficult to construct a realistic path away from the bottom of the table. Despite the nominal advantage of three home games, the underlying probabilities still point firmly towards another last-place finish.
Any Causes for Optimism?
Louis Rees-Zammit?
