So, week one of the Six Nations is done and dusted. Who won and lost? Who’s given their title chances a boost? What does it all mean? Let’s have a look and see …
Results
The Algorithm predicted 3 comfortable home wins in the opening weekend, and 3 (relatively?) home wins we got. France won by far more than the model predicted, Scotland were almost bang on what was expected and Ireland a few under – although perhaps a consolation try or two flattered the visitors there.

Not too bad an opening weekend for the Algorithm, but perhaps picking those three winners wasn’t a groundbreaking choice. All three of them gained the four try bonus point but, perhaps crucially, England gained that losing bonus point in Ireland. How critical will that be at the end of the tournament? Only time will tell, but bonus points have decided finishing positions before so gathering them when you can is often vital.
Some hypothetical simulations of the results either way suggest that that final try has improved England’s chances of finishing 1st or 2nd by 10% – definitely something tangible and worthwhile that teams should be aiming for.
Updated Tournament Chances
How have these results affect the chances? Below shows the before and after of our season simulations.


Not a huge change in there, but then the results were largely expected and the percentages already heavily in favour of the winners. All that has happened is (for example) the few simulations where Wales beat France have been removed. There weren’t many of those, so the French chances haven’t moved much. Ireland and Scotland saw a bigger increase as there were less chances of them beating England and Italy respectively.
Ireland are still our favourites for the tournament as they have the French game at home, and France now have 3 away matches – including Twickenham and the Aviva – to come. A tough run for them, although they did look very good …
What do the bookies say?
The bookies have moved heavier onto France and Ireland, but with France still the favourites for the title. I think this is because the markets haven’t accurately priced in France’s away matches into their schedule and tournament chances – only 4 sides have won in Dublin over the last 10 years – but in fairness a 6% difference in chances is not huge. They clearly have it as a two horse race, which is largely as the Algorithm sees it, just with the top two horses switched.

Interestingly, despite the Scottish win, which mathematically increases their chances of winning the tournament, the odds on them have gotten longer. Pre tournament they were sitting between 7 and 9 roughly speaking, but after week 1 they are now sitting at 14. I can understand the rationale in some respects, perhaps they didn’t look as dominant as expected, but fundamentally they won a match, removed the potential for a loss, and therefore increased their chances of winning the tournament. Although – as a Scot! – I would never recommend betting on them, this looks like a value bet right now and is one of the opportunities this analysis helps spot.
The Grand Slam
The Grand Slam chances have also not moved hugely since pre tournament, although interestingly as can be seen below, the markets have France as favourites for the title, but Ireland for the Grand Slam.

It still looks like ‘No Grand Slam’ is the best bet, and the odds on that have improved slightly since pre tournament so it looks more valuable that it did last week.
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below.
Week 2 Predictions
Week 2 has looked like a tasty affair from a long way out, and nothing has changed. Plenty of jeopardy in there for all sides (not great for the Algo!) and lots of talking points.

First up is Italy Wales, and what is being billed up as the wooden spoon decider. The Algorithm is backing the Italians to get the job done at home this round, although they haven’t beaten Wales in Rome since 2007. They’ve won in their past two visits to Cardiff, but not in Rome. Is this the weekend they get over the line? Can Wales finally get the job done and break that 13 match losing run … ?! It’s going to be a massive match.
Next up is England France. Le Crunch. Last time the French visited Twickenham they put 50 on the English, but last year in France the English were far better and nearly turned them over. How will it go this year? France looked very good against Wales, and given many are saying they didn’t get out of 2nd or 3rd gear, they may have more to give. But England looked decent against Ireland too, and but for a few individual errors may have been a lot closer. And given they are at home this weekend, the Algorithm is giving them a reasonable chance. It should be a cracker.
Finally, we have Scotland Ireland on Sunday. Ireland have really had Scotland’s number in recent years, and have beaten them 10 times in a row. But Scotland are good at Murrayfield, and haven’t lost to anybody but the best sides there. Ireland are very much one of the best sides however, and the Algorithm is backing them to get the job done again. However, it is suggesting that perhaps it might closer than you think and gives the Scots a reasonable chance of (finally) getting that win over the Irish.
This weekend could be tournament defining for all of the sides involved. A win for Italy or Wales likely ensures them an-above-the-bottom-finish and saves their blushes. France and Ireland can afford a loss in their matches if they want to win the title, but they will make their lives much more difficult if they do so. And Scotland and England can really throw the cat among the pigeons with a victory. A win for either of them would elevate them into a group of 3 with France and Ireland as title contenders. A tantalising prospect.
Match Opportunities
The bookies roughly have things the same as the Algorithm. Italy and Wales are almost exactly the same as the predictions, and there looks to be little value for your money there. However there are a few good prices out there on England and Scotland (😬😬😬) and the analysis suggests that these might be worth a look. Rather you than me though … !

Check back throughout the tournament for all the latest info, to see how teams chances change as results come in, and to see the best opportunities and prices available at the bookies. Good luck!