Italy take on Wales in the opening fixture of week 2 and it is a massive match. Being billed as the wooden spoon match already, there is even more riding on it this time round. Wales are on a recording losing run having lost the past 13 matches and, with matches against Ireland (H), Scotland (A) and England (H), they’ll be hard pushed to find a win after this weekend.
But Italy are also under pressure. They are on the up, and are starting to record some good wins in the Six Nations, but will want to keep that trajectory and not slide back into perennial wooden spoon winners. They are also likely to struggle to find a win after this weekend with France (H), England (A) and Ireland (H) to come.
Below shows the predictions from the Rugby4Cast’s Algorithm for the second weekend of the Six Nations. Looks tight, no … ?! Bad for predictions, but great for viewing.

Broadly speaking, the predictions model works off a proprietary rankings system (which you can see on the various events pages), but it also looks at other things like rest periods, home advantage and scoring patterns in historical games – both in head to head matches and overall – to work out an expected score for each team based on location and current ranking.
More accurately speaking, this means that each predicted score is actually a metric to describe the relative historical strength of the two teams, based on their performances over previous years. However, we think it is more fun to think of them as predictions. At the very least, it certainly serves to provoke the trolls lurking online. You know who you are … !
You can check out the rest predictions and the betting analysis below.
Welsh Recent Woes
The Welsh are on a record recent run, and not in a good way. 13 losses in a row is the worst in their history, and sadly for the Welsh it looks like to continue. The Algorithm has it close, but has Italy to take the win this weekend at home. After that it doesn’t get any easier, so it wouldn’t be unexpected to see that run extend out to 17 if they don’t win this weekend. It could be a tough championship for the Welsh.

Italy in Rome
However, Italy haven’t beaten Wales in Rome since 2007. They have won memorably in their previous two visits to Cardiff, but not in Rome. Is this the year that they get over the line?

It’s going to be tough for both sides. The Welsh will know this is their best chance of a win, and certainly won’t hand it to the Italians. The Italians also don’t deal well with wearing the favourites tag. How will they cope with that pressure? It’s a different mindset going into a match viewing it as a ‘free hit’ than being expected to win. Wales might have more experience in that regard in dealing with the pressure.
What do the bookies say?
The bookies have it almost exactly the same as the Algorithm, only a few percentage points out either side. As such there looks to be little value in this match with the odds being offered on both Italy and France fairly poor.

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