Welcome to the Six Nations Week 2 preview, 13 February. The opening weekend was a tremendous spectacle of action and a couple of interesting results which will already define the championship. It started off with quite the bang as France were superlative in the first half in absolutely trouncing Ireland, and the end scoreline does not reflect the actually dominance that France was able to achieve whenever they wanted to. This puts a right cat amongst the pigeons, and the championship has already taken a decisive turn.
Also in Rome, Italy destroyed any chance that Scotland had of it being a positive tournament, and it really looks like it’s back to the drawing board for Scotland. Meanwhile, Wales got smashed by England, as expected.
What Happened in Week 1?
France v Ireland
Week 1 kicked off in Paris. Before the tournament, people had been talking about Ireland’s demise, and statistically, according to the model, this demise was somewhat exaggerated. Therefore, it appeared there were several good opportunities in backing Ireland, as they were very underpriced. However, this didn’t take into account, quite simply, how brilliant France would be.
Despite a fairly average Autumn International series, France came out absolutely firing. They looked like they have bags of talent all over the pitch. And in Louis Bielle-Biarrey, they have an absolute game-changer and world-class winger — as good as Cheslin Kolbe at his best (no finer complement exists), and probably good enough to turn matches on his own. He gives France the X-factor to possibly not only go all the way this Six Nations, but go all the way at the World Cup.
So before kickoff, France-Ireland was predicted to be a fairly close affair, with France having the edge. We predicted a scoreline of around 23-18, and France absolutely dominated that. They won by 17 more points than expected, which at this level, amongst those top-tier nations, is a staggering amount, and it really put into perspective that Ireland are looking really, really average.
One can say, was it because France were great, or was it because Ireland were hopeless? As always, it’s a mixture of the two. France were excellent, and Ireland were absolutely awful. That should really give rise to concern, because it didn’t look like they had the players available to turn the match around.
Even Lions stalwarts such as Tadhg Beirne, man of the series, just looked anonymous. Jamison Gibson-Park couldn’t change the momentum, and at fly-half they looked like they had a boy lost at sea.
So for Ireland, it’s going to be a massive kick up the backside. This weekend they are at home to Italy, and we’re still predicting a clear heavy victory in favour of Ireland, even after what happened last weekend.
Italy v Scotland
But the truly significant game was in Rome, where Italy beat Scotland. Italy won 18-15. We had predicted a 30-20 victory for Scotland, so Italy winning by three is a real turn-up for the books.
For Scotland, this is incredibly disappointing. Although we said in the preview they were probably nailed on for fourth, now even fourth is not so straight forward. What could have been a promising Six Nations, with the chance of taking scalps off the big boys and possibly sneaking into second place, has now turned into a scrap where they could be fighting for the wooden spoon, possibly with Wales.
This weekend is massive for Scotland: their big one. They have an excellent record against England in recent history, especially at home. We give them a 34% chance of getting a result, so we’re only leaning slightly towards England, and we’re predicting it should be a fairly close game.
However, our model probably doesn’t take into account the manner of the most recent performances, so Scotland’s pretty abject display in Rome may not be fully reflected. That means the model could be slightly over-exaggerating Scotland’s chances.
England v Wales
England, meanwhile, looked pretty good in beating Wales. But there’s not much value in taking too much away from a match like that, because of course you’re going to look good in beating Wales.
Who’s Going to Win Now?
France have taken a real stranglehold on the tournament already. With such a good win against one of their nearest challengers, their chances have gone from 13% to 34% for the Grand Slam, and their overall chances of victory now over 50%. England were also winners in the chances table as they moved up slightly from 10% to 12% BUT on closer inspection, their chances of overall victory have actually diminished slightly in light of French strength.
Wales look nailed on for the wooden spoon, up from 60% to 72%. Italy and Scotland will have a real ding-dong to see who gets fourth.
Week Two Fixtures
Ireland get a chance to get some confidence as they are at home against Italy. Italy will be going into this one absolutely flying, following their victory against Scotland in Rome. However, the data suggests Ireland should have far too much for the Italians. But does it do enough to take into account the mental state of each team? The model is leaning heavily towards a comfortable Irish victory.
Following on from that, we have Scotland v England. As we stated in our preview series, Scotland were going to be a really important team for the big three of Ireland, France, and England, as statistically they were likely to win one and lose one in their matches against the bigger opposition. And it was the result against Scotland which would be rather determinative.
First up in this potentially defining fixture against the Scots are England. They have a tougher task in going to Murrayfield, as their form against Scotland in their last 10 meetings has been quite awful. A lucky win last 6 nations has done nothing to break the mental hold Scotland seem to have on England, especially at Murrayfield. However, on the very recent form, it looks like we are leaning England to get a result.
Then over in Cardiff, we finish off with Wales against France. As we see it, Wales were pretty abject against England, and so France should have a clear victory here. We’re predicting a 38-14 margin, with a 91% chance of success.
So that’s it for the weekend. We’ve got Ireland beating Italy, but could it actually be a bit closer considering Ireland’s decline and Italy’s resurgence? Scotland and England is a heavyweight clash at Murrayfield, and Wales-France looks like a one-sided event in Cardiff.
How The Bookies See It – Overall Winner
The R4C prediction for France is a lot closer aligned for this week. The Bookies are still overconfident on their overall chances by a few percentage points. England, likewise are overvalued. This always tends to be the way with England, as punters can’t help themselves. Ireland were the team with the most mismatched prices prior to week one. It has now got greater. If you like an outsider, feel Ireland will roll up their sleeves and get back to winning ways, England will beat France, then there is still a chance. If you like your longshots, Ireland still have a 12% chance (small but not insignificant), to win the tournament, but you can find amazingly high prices.
How The Bookies See It – Grand Slam
The Grand Slam odds are similarly overpriced for France. The best value remains a No Grand Slam bet, which is incorrectly priced by the bookies. Look for odds over 2.00. Odds of 4.04 reflect a magnificent opportunity.
Rugby4Cast’s Top 6 Nations Tip For This Weekend
In spite of, or possibly because of, Scotland’s defeat away in Rome, they are great value for beating England. They have an excellent recent record against England and should be much closer than what last week suggests. They are still a long shot, but a value threshold of 3.05 with 4.00 being offered is not to be sniffed at.
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