Scotland’s relationship with probability, particularly at Murrayfield, has never been straightforward
The third stop in our Six Nations 2026 preview series is Scotland, a beguiling side that offers so much promise but regularly fails to deliver consistently over a long period. Scotland sit firmly in the quite good camp. Comfortably better than Italy and Wales, and capable of giving anyone a game on their day. Their problem is being able to beat the big three of England, Ireland and France all in the same championship.
Tournament Chances
Scotland enter this Six Nations in an uncomfortable position that will feel familiar to anyone who has followed them closely over the past decade. Strong enough to unsettle the best sides in Europe, yet, overwhelmingly likely to finish fourth once again.
Across 10,000 simulations, Scotland land in fourth place 46 per cent of the time with only a 3.4% chance of overall victory. It is a striking statistic, not because it suggests failure, but because it captures the difficulty that Scotland faces in breaking into the top three. They are not far off the leading pack but they are trapped behind it.
Recent Form
Scotland have had a mixed bag of results over their past 10 games. Some comfortable big wins against minor nations like Tonga and USA, but some really disappointing defeats against Argentina at home and Fiji away. The 6 nations last year was a mixed bag as always, with the highlight being a narrow victory away against England.
2026 Six Nations Fixtures and Predictions
The model expects Scotland to win two matches: away to Italy and away to Wales. They have England and France at home which could go either way and then finish with a tough ask away in Ireland. At home to England they are given a 37 per cent chance, against France at Murrayfield 40 per cent. Once it is added all up the outcome suggests two wins, three losses, and another mid-table finish.
Yet Scotland’s relationship with probability, particularly at Murrayfield, has never been straightforward.
If there is one fixture where numbers struggle to capture reality, it is Scotland against England in Edinburgh. Over the last ten Six Nations meetings, Scotland have repeatedly got the better of England, both home and away. The psychological imbalance that once defined the rivalry has long since disappeared. Even last season’s narrow defeat at Twickenham left a sense that Scotland were unfortunate not to come away with more, undone by fine margins rather than inferiority.
This year’s projected score line: 18–23 reflects that tension. It is a game that could tip either way. But England arrive in a very different place to previous campaigns. Their autumn performances showed a side growing in confidence and control, closing the gap to the established elite and climbing back to fourth in the world rankings. They will come to Murrayfield expecting to win, not hoping to get a result.
That single fixture may define Scotland’s entire tournament. If they lose it, the road narrows sharply. Ireland away has been Scotland’s great stumbling block, with nine Irish wins in the last ten meetings and little evidence that the balance has shifted. France at home offers some hope but France remain the most ruthless side in the competition when errors creep in.
Elsewhere, Scotland’s record is stronger but still offers little margin for error. They have dominated Italy historically, winning nine of the last ten encounters, yet last year’s defeat in Rome served as a reminder that this is no longer a free fixture. Wales, once a recurring obstacle, have swung Scotland’s way in recent seasons, but even that game is rarely comfortable.
There is, however, a wider significance to Scotland’s campaign. While the model sees them falling short of a title challenge, it also positions them as potential kingmakers. France must travel to Murrayfield. Ireland face difficult away trips to both England and France. None of the favourites can afford a slip against Scotland. Even without lifting the trophy, Scotland may yet decide who does.
Any Causes for Optimism?
And so the familiar question returns. Another year of a golden generation. Another Six Nations where Scotland appear capable of beating anyone on their day. Another scenario where they could still finish fourth.
For Scotland to escape that fate, one thing is non-negotiable: they must beat England at home. Without that, the ceiling is brutally low. With it, momentum shifts, pressure moves elsewhere, and Scotland’s tournament takes on a different shape.
They finally have strength in depth in key positions and some truly world class players. However, in previous years there was serious talk that it was their year. This time, that chatter has died down as England have improved and France and Ireland remain strong. But, could that lack of expectation give them a freedom to unleash? Could Finn Russell weave enough magic to lead them to victory over the Auld enemy, come up against a France team on an off day? Even with a loss to Ireland factored in, 4 wins could well be enough to take the trophy.
