Welcome to the Weekend Preview 7 November. Last weekend saw the return of international rugby with the Autumn Internationals and a pause for domestic action. England were victorious against Australia and New Zealand saw off Ireland in the battle of the heavyweights. What’s in store for us this week?
Weekend Preview 7 November: Autumn Internationals
Autumn Internationals – Round One Recap
The opening weekend of the Autumn Internationals delivered few surprises but plenty of statement wins. England eased past Australia 25–7 at Twickenham, while South Africa demolished Japan 61–7 in London. Scotland were ruthless in Edinburgh, crushing the USA 85–0, and over in Chicago, New Zealand overpowered Ireland 26–13 — a result that, by Tier One standards, was something of a thrashing and a reminder of the All Blacks’ class when they hit full stride, and possibly Ireland really are on the slide.
Autumn Internationals – Round Two
Ireland v Japan – Dublin
Ireland return home looking to regroup after their heavy defeat to New Zealand. Our model gives them a 95% chance of victory, and they should have no trouble dispatching a Japanese side who will struggle with Ireland’s power game. Expect a comfortable home win — the ideal bounce-back after a humbling week in Chicago.
Scotland v New Zealand – Edinburgh
Murrayfield hosts one of the standout fixtures of the weekend. The question: can Scotland prove they belong among the world’s elite? Our model gives them a 22% chance, with New Zealand at 75%. If Scotland can maintain tempo and accuracy, they could make it interesting, but the All Blacks’ athleticism and set-piece discipline should see them through.
England v Fiji – Twickenham
England host Fiji and are expected to win comfortably. The Fijians will offer flair and physicality, but England’s structure and control under Borthwick should prove too much.
Italy v Australia – Florence
A tighter one than many expect. Our numbers favour Australia at 65% to Italy’s 32%. The Wallabies’ superior set-piece should see them home, but Italy have been quietly improving and could push them close.
France v South Africa – Paris
The game of the weekend. South Africa, the number-one-ranked side in the world, are tipped to edge this — 59% to France’s 38% — with our projected final score 25–21 to the Springboks. But it’s on a knife-edge: home advantage, French flair, and a few decisive moments could easily turn it. Don’t be surprised if France nick it late.
Wales v Argentina – Cardiff
Wales’ slump continues; they’ve dropped down the world rankings after a run of poor results. Argentina, by contrast, are trending upwards and are 80% favourites to win, with Wales just 17%. The Pumas’ attacking width and defensive line speed could overwhelm a Welsh side short on confidence.
The Betting Outlook
As we move into the second week of the Autumn Internationals, the betting markets have largely settled — and, for the most part, our model and the bookmakers are in broad agreement. The prices across the board are tight, with few obvious outliers. Still, one or two fixtures stand out on closer inspection.
The clearest area of potential value comes from Italy v Australia in Florence. Our model gives Italy a 29% chance of pulling off the upset, compared to the bookies’ 20% estimate. That’s enough to create a small but genuine edge for those willing to take a risk:
- Value threshold: 3.73
- Current odds: 4.5 available
It’s not a high-probability play, but with home advantage and Australia’s tendency to drift in mid-tier fixtures, there’s some appeal here. Beyond that, though, most of the markets are well calibrated — and in some cases, perhaps too short to justify involvement.
England v Fiji is a good example. England are heavy favourites — and rightly so — but the market might be overconfident. We give England an 89% chance of victory, whereas the bookies price them closer to 96%. That implies a value threshold of 1.21, compared to odds of just 1.05 currently available. While England should win nine times out of ten, that tenth match — where Fiji’s unpredictability shines through — makes the risk-to-reward ratio unappealing. Best avoided.
The weekend’s headline fixture, France v South Africa, looks correctly priced across the board. The market has South Africa at 56%, matching our model almost exactly (59%). France are a touch overvalued — 40% chance by our numbers versus 48% implied by the odds — so any serious punter should be wary of overpaying for Les Bleus’ home advantage.
Elsewhere, Ireland v Japan, Scotland v New Zealand, and Wales v Argentina all sit comfortably within their expected ranges. In the Cardiff matchup, both sides are actually slightly overpriced, making it another market best left alone.
World Rankings Report
While World Rugby’s official rankings grab the headlines, here at Rugby4Cast we run our own proprietary Elo-based model, which we believe offers a truer reflection of form and performance.
The current top four remain the same — but the gaps are widening:
For much of the past two years, the top four have been a class apart. However, there are a couple of things which stand out. South Africa and New Zealand are starting to pull away from Ireland and France, so it will be fascinating to see if France can halt that momentum this weekend. Also, England are beginning to close the gap — now only two Elo points behind France, meaning that if they met on neutral ground, we’d expect France to win by just two points.
Below them sits Argentina (119.8), roughly a converted try behind England, marking a clear second tier. Scotland, Australia, and Argentina are closely grouped between sixth and eighth, while Wales have now fallen to 11th, a long way off the pace.
The top of world rugby remains elite and exclusive, but England are edging back into contention. The key question heading into the next few weeks:
- Can England bridge the gap and join the “Big Four”?
- Will South Africa and New Zealand pull further away at the summit?
One thing is certain — the next few weeks of autumn rugby will tell us a lot about the shape of the world game heading into 2026.
A reminder that there’s no domestic rugby this weekend, with both the Gallagher Premiership and United Rugby Championship taking a break for the Autumn Internationals.
As always, you can find full data, value picks, and match-by-match predictions at sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
