Welcome to the Weekend Preview for 24 September. The Rugby Championship is back for its culmination over the next two weeks. The final of the Women’s World Cup is on Saturday and the domestic rugby season begins in the UK and beyond. All in all, it is a packed weekend for rugby! Check out our weekend preview to stay on top of it all.
The Rugby Championship
The Rugby Championship is finely balanced. All four teams have now won twice and lost twice, meaning the table is separated only by bonus points. That reflects both the strength of the competition and the fine margins at play.
Two weeks ago South Africa gained revenge on New Zealand with a resounding 43–10 win, collecting a bonus point in the process. It was a result that shook the title picture, though perhaps it simply restored the balance predicted before the tournament began. Meanwhile, Argentina held off a fierce Australian fightback to secure the win, despite the Wallabies coming close to snatching it late on.
This weekend
In Auckland, New Zealand host Australia and are overwhelming favourites, with our model giving them an 87% chance of victory against just 10% for the Wallabies. In Pretoria, South Africa enjoy similar dominance, rated at an 88% chance of beating Argentina, who also stand at 10%. The expectation is for both heavyweights to record comfortable wins, setting up a grand finale in the final weekend.
The Rugby Championship Outright Chances
In the final weekend, New Zealand must travel to Perth, where Australia’s prospects of victory rise to 25%, while South Africa head to London to face Argentina, who improve only slightly to 18%. That difference is decisive: South Africa are more likely to prevail in London than New Zealand are in Perth, making the Springboks the favourites for the Championship with a 61% chance of success compared to 33% for the All Blacks. However, with the impovement in Argentina and Australia, do not be suprised if there are some more unexpected twists and turns in the Championship.
From a betting perspective, there is limited value in this weekend’s individual matches. New Zealand’s 87% chance compares with bookmakers’ odds of around 85%, so anything above 1.22 represents value, with 1.23 available. South Africa, however, are priced shorter than our numbers suggest, with the market giving them a 91% chance compared to our 88%, offering little upside. The real opportunity lies in the outright market. Our model’s 61% projection for South Africa exceeds the bookmakers’ implied probability of 56%, meaning anything above 1.8 is worth considering; 1.91 can be found. By contrast, the market overrates New Zealand at 42% compared to our 34%, and there is little case for backing Australia or Argentina.
Women’s World Cup Final Preview
The Women’s World Cup reaches its climax on Saturday. England, the heavy favourites from the outset, have comfortably made the final. They overcame France 35–17 in the semi-final, albeit it was a a smaller margin than predicted — ten points fewer on this occasion. That has been a recurring theme for England throughout the tournament: winning consistently, but not by as many points as the model expected. Still, they have reached the final.
Their opponents are Canada, ranked second in the world, yet still some-what distant from England. Our model gives England a 74% chance of lifting the trophy, with Canada at 23%. Canada arrive in fine form, having upset New Zealand in the semi-final. Canada have regularly exceeded their expected margins during the tournament. That consistency suggests the final could be closer than the headline numbers imply. Add in the the natural unpredicitability of a major final, and it could be a belter.
From a betting perspective, though, there is no real value. The bookmakers rate England at 76% and Canada at 29%, leaving little margin to exploit. England remain firm favourites, Canada have a genuine one-in-four chance, and with the nerves and intensity of a World Cup final, anything can happen. But from a betting standpoint, this is one to watch rather than to wager on.
The Gallagher Prem Preview
The 2025–26 Gallagher Prem kicks off this week under a new name and logo. The question is: who can topple Bath? Last season’s treble winners finally ended a 29-year wait for the league title and arrive with the deepest squad in the competition. Our model makes Bath clear favourites at 48%, far ahead of the chasing pack. With Finn Russell running the game and new signings Henry Arundell and Santi Carreras adding even more firepower, Bath look well placed to repeat. The only question is whether their focus drifts towards the European Champions Cup, the one prize that still eludes them.
Behind Bath, Sale Sharks appear the most credible challengers. Semi-finalists in each of the past three seasons, they have a settled squad, a core of England internationals, and now sit at an 18% chance of lifting the trophy. If the Curry brothers stay fit and the new additions bed in quickly, Sale have the tools to take the final step. The bookmakers undervalue them at just 10%, so they may be the best outright value bet of the field.
Leicester, last year’s beaten finalists, come next at 13%. With Geoff Parling stepping in as yet another new head coach, the Tigers remain an unknown quantity. There is plenty of young English talent ready to take on leadership roles, but much will depend on how quickly new signings like James O’Connor can settle. They look fairly priced in the market, but perhaps lack the depth to sustain a title challenge.
Saracens, meanwhile, are rated at 11% by our model — a sharp contrast to the bookmakers, who make them second favourites at 23%. Owen Farrell’s high-profile return has dominated headlines, but this still feels like a side in transition, with consistency the major question. On that basis, Saracens look overpriced, and punters may wish to steer clear.
Bristol’s headline arrival is Louis Rees-Zammit, fresh from his brief NFL sojourn, and he adds genuine stardust. With Gabriel Ibitoye on the other wing, the Bears boast a back three to thrill. Yet squad depth remains an issue, and our model has them at just 4%, suggesting they may struggle to sustain a title run. Northampton, Champions Cup finalists last year, also lack depth in the league and sit at 2%. The bookmakers remain strangely optimistic, but we see little value there.
At the other end, Newcastle have received a massive boost following their takeover by Red Bull Sport. The investment should transform the club’s finances and long-term prospects, but this season is still likely to be about consolidation. Exeter and Gloucester are in transition, with major squad reshuffles, while Harlequins continue to search for the consistency that deserted them last year.
Gallagher Prem Outright Betting
From a betting perspective, the outright market holds two clear options: Bath, who remain the class of the field, and Sale, who offer genuine value against their market price. Steer clear of Saracens and Northampton, who are flattered by the odds.
The season begins on Thursday night, with Sale at home to Gloucester. Our model tips Sale to open with a win. The best of the weekend’s betting value may lie in Exeter away at Northampton, where we rate the Chiefs at a 34% chance compared to shorter market odds. Leicester away at Bristol also has potential, but only if odds climb beyond 3.14.
All told, the Gallagher Prem looks set for another enthralling season. Bath remain the benchmark, but the pack is closing. Bonus points, squad depth, and a touch of fortune could yet tilt the title race in unexpected directions.
The United Rugby Championship Preview
The United Rugby Championship also begins this week. This brings together clubs from Ireland, Wales, Scotland, Italy, and South Africa. Last season’s final was a one-sided affair, with Leinster sweeping past the Bulls 32–7. The question this year is whether anyone can realistically stop them. Our model suggests probably not: Leinster are given a 53% chance of retaining the title, with the Bulls second on 14%. Munster (10%), Glasgow (9%), and the Stormers (6%) round out the other possible contenders. That Leinster number is far below what the bookies think, so Leinster are a team to steer clear of if making a bet.
The opening weekend serves up some familiar heavyweight clashes. The Stormers host Leinster in what could be the pick of the round. Elsewhere, Glasgow are at home to the Sharks. Edinburgh should travel well to Zebre, while Scarlets v Munster is too close to call and looks to be the best option for a bet this weekend with Scarlets being considerably underpriced in the market.
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below for all rugby tournaments https://sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast/
