The first block of The Rugby Championship fixtures is complete, and the tournament already feels transformed. South Africa and New Zealand were tipped to dominate, yet Australia and Argentina have both claimed statement victories. It is shaping up to be a quite epic tournament where every match is a real blood and thunder contest.
Australia stunned the Springboks in Johannesburg, overturning a 22–0 deficit to win 38–22 in one of the most remarkable comebacks seen in Ellis Park. South Africa struck back in Cape Town to level the mini-series. However, crucially, they failed to collect a single bonus point across either match. That shortfall may define their campaign.
New Zealand, meanwhile, won convincingly in Córdoba but then fell in Buenos Aires. Argentina’s 30–24 victory was their first ever home win against the All Blacks. So what does that mean for the Championship chances?
Despite losing to Argentina, after the first block of fixtures, we give New Zealand a 65% chance of winning the tournament. This is due mainly to the fact that South Africa have to travel to New Zealand, and also South Africa failed to obtain any bonus points in their matches against Australia. New Zealand meanwhile claimed two bonus points against Argentina. Australia’s chances have increased slightly, but we still have them at only 9% to win the Championship.
Next Fixtures & Predictions
ROUND 3
The tournament continues with Argentina travelling to Australia for back-to-back Tests. The first in Queensland gives the Wallabies a 60% chance of victory, though Argentina at 37% cannot be discounted. It is close enough to go either way. It promises to be a great match, and both teams have their tails up.
The headline fixture, though, comes in Auckland, where New Zealand host South Africa. The All Blacks are rated 66% favourites, but the predicted scoreline of 21–19 shows how fine the margins could be. South Africa will know they must not only compete but realistically they need to obtain more points than New Zealand over the two matches.
The easiest manner to do this, obviously, is with a couple of victories. However, that looks a tall order, so they need to at least win one and obtain more bonus points than New Zealand. There are two ways to get bonus points, score 4+ tries or lose by less than 7. Assuming NZ and SA share the mini-series 1-1, South Africa need to lose by less than 7 and win by more than 7. They also need to ensure they match of better New Zealand’s try bonus points. This is what makes New Zealand such heavy favourites for the championship when compared to South Africa, despite South Africa having a kinder last round of matches.
The Run-In
South Africa host Argentina with an 87% chance of victory, then meet them on neutral ground in London, where the Springboks are favoured at 77%. New Zealand, by contrast, play Australia in Auckland (rated 89% for the hosts) before having to travel to Perth, where the gap narrows to 73%–24% in favour of the All Blacks.
That Perth match could yet be decisive and an improving Wallabies side have a one-in-four chance of helping out South Africa if they failed to do the job themselves against New Zealand.
What the Bookies say
The Bookies and R4C have a pretty similar picture with New Zealand being priced exactly right. However, South Africa seem a bit overpriced according to our model, so stay clear. Tune back in next week for our specific match odds analysis.
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below for all rugby tournaments.
