Thank goodness for the Rugby Championship. The post-Lions withdrawal symptoms have been severe. After a month of midweek fixtures and three enthralling – well, two enthralling – Tests between the British & Irish Lions and Australia, the calendar felt desperately empty. The Wallabies, who began that series like a nervous baby joey, finished it like a fully fledged international rugby team. They thumped the Lions in the finale and leaving the tourists almost relieved to escape with a 2–1 win.
LAST YEAR
So how did the teams get on in 2024? South Africa were runaway winners. They had five wins from six and only slipped up away to Argentina – a reminder that Los Pumas can spring a surprise. New Zealand finished second but also fell to Argentina at home, alongside two narrow defeats in South Africa. Argentina’s campaign was a rollercoaster. A historic first away win over the All Blacks, a home victory against the Springboks, and a 60-point demolition of Australia, offset by home defeat to the Wallabies and clear losses in the return fixtures against SA and NZ. Australia managed one win – away to Argentina – and pushed New Zealand close, but also endured heavy defeats, finishing with five losses from six.
THIS YEAR
The Rugby Championship is really a quite curious tournament. Incredibly unbalanced, really a collection of mini-series with a league table bolted on at the end. More World Test Championship than a standard league. Home advantage always matters, but nowhere more than in southern hemisphere rugby, where travel and fatigue are part of the contest. That reality is baked into our supercomputer’s view of the competition. On the balance of all the games, which side is most likely to make their home games count?
One might assume New Zealand are favourites. They have both clashes against South Africa at home, but those matches are expected to be tight. The All Blacks’ other assignments – two trips to Argentina and a split Bledisloe in Auckland and Perth – have more jeopardy than the equivalent matches for SA. The Springboks, even with an away series in New Zealand, have four fixtures either at home or effectively ‘home’ in London against Argentina and Australia, each carrying a 90%+ win probability. That greater edge in likely victories explains why they top the projections despite the All Blacks’ having the edge in the series against South Africa.
FIXTURES
But the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Argentina beat the Lions in Dublin earlier this year while understrength. They will arrive believing they can follow up their ground-breaking win over the All Blacks in New Zealand in 2024. However, their schedule is unforgiving. The All Blacks twice at home, then away to Australia and South Africa – means that despite improvement, they face a difficult task to mount a title challenge.
Australia’s path is equally jagged. Opening away in South Africa, hosting Argentina, then trading blows across the Tasman with NZ. And yet there’s a flicker of menace about Joe Schmidt’s team after that late-series surge against the Lions. Will Skelton is a totem up front, while rugby league convert Joseph Sua’ali’i has already shown flashes of the athleticism and creative ability that could make him a game-breaker. If the Wallabies stitch their set-piece together quickly, they become awkward company for anyone.
New Zealand, for all the talk of transition under Scott Robertson, still carry the firepower to win it all. Home advantage against South Africa and a strong core of experienced match-winners keep them firmly in the frame. However, they must prove they can avoid the stumbles that cost them last year’s title. The Springboks, meanwhile, don’t need to look for themselves in the mirror. They know exactly who they are. Siya Kolisi still sets the emotional temperature. Eben Etzebeth patrols the air. And the next wave – not least Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu – gives Rassie Erasmus options at 10 that weren’t always there. With four fixtures in environments they dominate and a recent four-match streak over New Zealand, the holders carry an aura that numbers merely confirm.
On paper, then, the trophy is a tug-of-war between the two superpowers, with South Africa’s cluster of near-bankers tilting the scales. In practice, the margins are thinner. New Zealand are slight favourites in both home Tests with the Boks. Argentina are stubborn hosts. Australia have rediscovered a snarl. For those still feeling the absence of the Lions, the Rugby Championship is here with a new hit of rugby to keep us going, and it promises to be an absolute belter.
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below.
