Manchester City are currently going through an unprecedented run of bad form having lost their last 3 games in all competitions (2 in the Premier League and 1 in the Champions League). All of those games have been away from home, but even in games that they have won lately they have been less than convincing, only beating Southampton at home with a single goal (although they did keep a rare clean sheet) and relying on John Stones scoring in the 95th minute to snatch a 2-1 win at Wolves. So what exactly is going wrong for Pep Guardiola’s side?

Injuries have obviously played their part as Ballon D’Or winner Rodri is a huge miss. The Spaniard really is the central cog that seems to make City tick. They have also been without the services of Kevin De Bruyne and their defence has looked different in virtually every game. You would expect a club of City’s pedigree to have ample backup in every position though, even if they are not exactly like for like.

A look at the data tells us more as well. City are scoring less than their xG suggests they should (2 goals per game compared to 2.18 expected) and are conceding more than their xGA would suggest (1.18 compared to 0.96). This would seem to show that they are less deadly in front of goal than they should be and that their defence, perhaps down to changes, isn’t as strong as it once was. They are also only conceding just under 7 fouls per game which is very low and although this means they are facing less set plays, it also shows that they may be suffering from a lack of bite and fight at the moment.

It will also be difficult for City this weekend as it is currently hard to tell which Spurs team is going to show up. In their past five league matches, Ange Postecoglu’s team have looked fantastic in 4-1 demolitions of both Aston Villa and West Ham, but have also lost to Crystal Palace, Ipswich and Brighton, the latter after being two goals ahead. This inconsistent form will certainly be a worry for fans.

One plus point has been the emerging partnership between their front players with Brennan Johnson and Dominic Solanke really finding their feet in the first team, Son finding his way back from injury and James Maddison starting to tick and pull the strings again. Dejan Kulusevski has also been in fine form in midfield. Postecoglu now needs to find a way to get the best out of all of his creative players on a regular basis.

Spurs have actually scored the most goals in the league (23) and the 13 they have conceded is the same as City and Chelsea who sit in second and third respectively. What seems to be happening is that they are losing by the odd goal here and there where other teams have been able to see out results and this has led to their current position. However, in a very congested league table, they are still only 3 points off third place and a statement win here could certainly be a catalyst for better things to come.

Verdict

Backing Manchester City

Our algorithm is massively backing a home win here, giving City a 71% likelihood of victory with Spurs only having a 9% chance.

This is down to the fact that City are at home but are also going to be hurting after recent results and will be desperate to get back on track. It really does seem unthinkable that they will lose a fourth game in a row. There won’t be much value in solely backing a City win though.