France are more likely to win the Grand Slam, yet Ireland are more likely to win the tournament. How does that work?
The fourth stop in our Six Nations 2026 preview series is Ireland. A powerhouse international side on the slide. Many are predicting a fall-off for this campaign, a team losing steam, on its last legs. Are they right? Can Ireland restore the magic and win the Championship?
Tournament Chances
“Does Anyone Believe Ireland Can Win?” scream the headlines of many 6 Nations previews. Simply put: We do. The model thinks that talk of a demise are greatly exaggerated. Ireland come into the competition with a very healthy 38% chance of tournament victory and a 10% chance of winning the Grand Slam. Ireland are actually rated as (slight) favourites to win the tournament, as in a strange statistical quirk, France are more likely to win the Grand Slam, yet Ireland are more likely to win the tournament. How does that work? Read one dear reader, read on.
Recent Form
Ireland’s recent form of 7 wins and 3 losses is respectable, but not elite. Significantly, last autumn, Ireland lost to a weak New Zealand and South Africa. They also comfortably beat Australia and Japan, but that was the bare minimum. Their last 6 nations was characterised by a heavy loss at home to France. All this points to a team which was fighting at the top of the World Rankings only a little while ago, but has now fallen into third, a mile back from South Africa at the top, and right alongside France and England.
2026 Six Nations Fixtures and Predictions
So, what’s going on with the model for Ireland? Are they really favourites to win the tournament? Ireland have three matches at home and two away. That is always a good start. Ireland face Italy, Wales and Scotland at home, the weaker teams outside of the big three. In each of those matches, they are heavily favoured to take the victory. This does mean that they face France and England away from home.
Surely that means that they should not be favourites? Well, in a nutshell, France, Ireland and England are actually ranked very close together these days. Therefore, all the matches between these three heavyweights are incredibly close to call, even with home advantage. For example, England v Ireland is predicted to finish 19–18 in favour of England, which essentially means it is a toss-up. Either side can take the victory. Thus, these matches cancel each other out probability-wise. It is statistically probable that each side wins one and loses one. Commentators who are calling the opening match of the tournament between Ireland v France as the potential tournament decider are way off the mark.
This means that the real deal-maker in this year’s tournament is the match against Scotland. It is this which tilts the tables in Ireland’s favour. Ireland face Scotland at home with an 84% chance of victory. However, England and France both have to go to Murrayfield. In England’s case, this is a cause for concern, as their recent record against Scotland is terrible. France do have more of a chance, but it is still mightily close, with France only having a 58% chance of success. All this means that France are more likely to win the Grand Slam than Ireland, but overall, Ireland are more likely to win the tournament.
