There’s real value at the very top of the European Champions Cup market — and it lies with Toulouse
Welcome to the European Champions Cup Preview for 2025/26. After the fantastic clashes of the Autumn Internationals came to an end, we returned briefly to domestic fodder with the Premiership and URC resuming last week. But it was only a short interlude — this week we dive straight into the first round of the European Champions Cup, with the Premiership and URC once again on pause. (Another reason, perhaps, why the domestic calendar struggles for rhythm compared to other sports?)
European Champions Cup Preview 2025-26
How the pool stage works
Welcome to the pool stages which begin this weekend. To get us all excited, let’s remind ourselves how the pool stage works:
The 2025–26 Investec European Rugby Champions Cup brings together 24 of the best teams from across England, France, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and South Africa. Teams are split into four pools of six, each containing two clubs from each league. They’ll face the four teams not from their own league, twice at home and twice away, in a modified round-robin stage.
The top four sides in each pool move on to the Round of 16, with the top two earning home advantage — a massive factor. The teams finishing fifth drop into the Challenge Cup knockouts, while the sixth-placed teams are eliminated. So all in all, you have to be good going not to make the last 16, but the jeopardy is all about who gets those important home draws.
Rugby4Cast Predictions
Last year, Bordeaux smashed all comers in a campaign to remember. They topped their group, winning four from four, before going on to beat Ulster, Munster, and Toulouse. This took them to the final, where they faced Henry Pollock and co (aka. Northampton) who had sprung a massive surprise by defeating pre-tournament favourites Leinster in the semi-final. However, it was one performance too many, and they were overpowered in the final, albeit after losing two key backline players to injury within the first five minutes.
So, what does the algorithm say this year?
Bordeaux are a long shot to repeat their triumph
The R4C algorithm has spoken — and it sees a two-horse race emerging. Toulouse lead the way with a 33% chance of lifting the trophy, reaching the semi-finals in two-thirds of our simulations. Leinster are close behind at 29%, overwhelming favourites to top their pool and once again looking like Europe’s most complete side.
Behind them, La Rochelle (6%) and Bordeaux remain the best of the rest, reflecting the superiority of French domestic rugby. Toulon (4%), and Saracens (4%) form the main chasing pack. Clubs such as Clermont, Northampton, and Munster sit in the 2–3 percent range — outsiders, but dangerous enough to make a deep run.
Further down, Bulls, Stormers, and Edinburgh have only a sliver of title hope yet strong odds to reach the last 16, while Bayonne and Scarlets look destined for an early exit.
In short: it’s Toulouse and Leinster’s tournament to lose — but several hungry contenders are lurking, ready to crash the Bilbao party if the favourites slip.
Pool 1: Toulouse the team to beat
In Pool 1, Toulouse look formidable. The French champions are favourites not only to win the pool but to go deep into the tournament, carrying all the hallmarks of a side that knows how to handle European pressure. Saracens should have enough power and experience to join them in the top two, with Clermont likely to be dangerous on home soil and Sale pushing for the final qualification spot. Glasgow and the Sharks will compete hard but appear outmatched across four rounds. Expect Toulouse to dominate and Saracens to follow closely behind.
Pool 2: Toulon on the rise?
Pool 2 could be the most competitive of all. Toulon’s resurgence under Pierre Mignoni sees them enter as favourites to top the group, while Munster’s consistency in Europe keeps them in the mix for a home Round of 16 tie. Bath have more than enough pedigree and attacking depth to overcome either of those two. Edinburgh remain a difficult side to beat but may struggle to convert performances into results. Gloucester and Castres round out the group, both needing something special to stay alive beyond January.
Pool 3: Leinster to power through
Pool 3 looks very straightforward at first glance, but it’s filled with potential pitfalls. Leinster, so often imperious in the early rounds, are heavy favourites to win all four of their matches. La Rochelle, twice European champions in recent years, should secure second place without much difficulty. Leicester’s physical edge may be enough for third, with Harlequins capable of an upset on their day but likely to fall short. Stormers and Bayonne will need near-perfect campaigns to stay in contention, though the Cape Town side could yet influence who goes through with their home fixtures.
Pool 4: Bordeaux to begin their title defence strong
In Pool 4, Bordeaux begin their title defence as strong favourites to progress. Their mix of forward power and fluid backline play makes them a nightmare matchup for anyone, and they should have little trouble finishing top. Northampton’s all-round quality makes them favourites to take second, while Bristol are capable of pushing through as one of the more unpredictable teams in the competition. Pau, back in Europe’s top tier, might sneak results at home but will find the away trips tough, while the Bulls and Scarlets look destined for early exits.
Knockout Stage
Overall Seeding After the Pool Stage
- Toulouse
- Toulon
- Leinster
- Bordeaux
- La Rochelle
- Northampton
- Saracens
- Munster
- Bath
- Clermont
- Leicester
- Bristol
- Edinburgh
- Sale
- Harlequins
- Pau
As the pool stage concludes, our ranks Toulouse, Toulon, Leinster, and Bordeaux as the top four seeds heading into the Round of 16. La Rochelle, Northampton, Saracens, and Munster round out the next tier, each earning home advantage for the opening knockout round. Behind them, Bath, Clermont, Leicester, and Bristol all qualify as third-place teams, with Edinburgh, Sale, Harlequins, and Pau sneaking through to complete the sixteen.
The draw has already been made with 1 playing 16, 2 v 15 etc. in the last 16 and a similar logic for the quarter finals.
The Round of 16 is expected to go largely to form. Toulouse should cruise past Pau, and Toulon will have too much firepower for Harlequins. Leinster look set to dispatch Sale, while Bordeaux should see off Edinburgh in front of their home crowd. La Rochelle are likely to overcome Bristol, Northampton’s clash with Leicester could go either way but the it could be an upset for Leicester, Saracens are tipped to beat Clermont, and Munster should just about edge Bath in one of the closest ties of the round.
The quarter-finals look stacked with heavyweight clashes. Toulouse are projected to meet Munster in a repeat of so many classic European ties, and their greater attacking variety should see them through. Toulon’s home advantage could prove decisive against Saracens in another tight encounter, while Leinster are expected to overpower Leicester or Northampton with their trademark precision. Bordeaux, meanwhile, will fancy their chances at home against La Rochelle, setting up a repeat of last season’s semi-final run.
Semi-Finals and Final
By the semi-finals, the picture narrows to the giants of European rugby. Toulouse meet Bordeaux in an all-French clash that should deliver fireworks, and once again, the reigning Top 14 champions are expected to find a way through. It is this, more than anything else, which kills Bordeaux’s chances of a repeat success. This explains why the model has their chances of overall success at only 6% as it considers their likely run to the final. Any team coming up against Toulouse is not going to fare very well.
In the other semi-final, Leinster face Toulon, and though the French side have improved dramatically, Leinster’s cohesion and consistency under pressure should prove too much. That sets up the dream final once again: Toulouse against Leinster, in Bilbao, a fitting conclusion to what promises to be another thrilling European campaign.
The Betting Outlook
Is there any value in the markets now we are armed with the likely winners and losers?
There’s real value at the very top of the European Champions Cup market — and it lies with Toulouse.
The data gives Toulouse a 32% chance of lifting the trophy, which implies fair odds of 3.1, yet the bookmakers are still offering 3.5. That gap might not look huge, but in a market this sharp, it’s meaningful — the difference between a fair favourite and a genuine value bet. Leinster, the next closest contender, sit at 29% (fair odds of 3.45) and are priced almost exactly in line with expectations, leaving Toulouse as the only side at the top where the model sees a true edge.
It’s a razor-thin race — just three percentage points separate Europe’s two giants — but the model’s view is clear: Toulouse are slightly better placed to navigate the pool stages and secure home advantage deep into the knockout rounds. They’re not runaway favourites, but they are underpriced favourites, a rare find in this competition.
Behind them, the market starts to wobble. Bordeaux at 4.0 are dramatically overvalued compared with a fair price near 16.7, still trading on last season’s glory. Bath’s price of 9.0 is even further from reality, with the model giving them just a 1% chance of winning. Toulon, Bulls, Northampton, and Munster are all similarly too short. In short, the data says the top of the market is spot on for Leinster, overpriced through the middle, and quietly undervalued for one team only — Toulouse.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip This Weekend
As for individual matches, there is one standout option this weekend: Sale v Glasgow on Friday night. Sale are value at 2.16+ with home advantage and odds of 2.75 are available!
We have identified many price mismatches so make sure to sign up to get all the info sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
