Welcome to the Weekend Preview 31 October. It’s that time of year again — the Autumn Internationals are back, and we get to see how the Southern Hemisphere sides stack up against the Northern Hemisphere. Saturday sees England, South Africa, Scotland, and Ireland all in action in what promises to be a great opening weekend of test rugby.
Weekend Preview 31 October: Autumn Internationals
England v Australia – Twickenham
The weekend kicks off with England hosting Australia in a classic north vs south showdown. Our model gives England an 81% chance of victory, compared to Australia’s 16%. Australia come into this off the back of an improved Rugby Championship campaign — a mixed bag featuring a statement win away in South Africa, but disappointment in the Bledisloe Cup. They’ve grown in confidence since the Lions tour and could make life difficult for England if their backline clicks.
England, meanwhile, have looked much sharper under Steve Borthwick, and this match will be a useful barometer of their progress. Twickenham should expect a dominant home performance, but don’t completely rule out a Wallaby surge.
South Africa v Japan – London
The Rugby Championship winners, South Africa, meet Japan at the Olympic Stadium. The numbers are brutal: 95% South Africa, 2% Japan. There’s little to suggest an upset here. Japan will look to build on a spirited performance against Australia, but even a much-changed Springbok side should win comfortably. Expect power up front, precision at the breakdown, and maybe a few squad players getting valuable minutes.
Scotland v USA – Murrayfield
Up in Edinburgh, Scotland are overwhelming favourites at 95%, with the USA at 3%. The Americans are improving but remain a tier below, and Scotland should take this one with ease. Expect Gregor Townsend to rotate heavily and give younger players a chance to impress.
Ireland v New Zealand – Chicago
The headline act of the weekend takes place under the lights in Chicago. Our model rates New Zealand at 51% and Ireland at 45%, making this one almost too close to call. New Zealand narrowly missed out on the Rugby Championship title on bonus points but were excellent at times, beating Argentina, Australia and South Africa. Hoerver, they were rolled over at home in a record defeat to the Springboks. The All Blacks remain a force — fast, clinical, and dangerous when underestimated.
For Ireland, this is a chance to reassert themselves after a quieter year. Once dominant in the Northern Hemisphere alongside France, they’ve looked less assured recently. The Lions tour hinted at some stagnation, though Tadhg Beirne’s Player of the Series performance was a bright spot. Expect a fierce battle — clearly the best match of the weekend.
The Betting Outlook
For most fixtures this weekend, our model and the bookmakers are broadly aligned — the favourites are strong, and upsets look unlikely. However, the real talking point comes from Chicago, where Ireland take on New Zealand.
The bookies make New Zealand clear favourites, giving them around a 71% chance of victory, implying that Ireland are significant underdogs. Our model disagrees. We rate New Zealand at 55% and Ireland at 41%, meaning the Irish have a much better shot than the odds suggest.
That difference opens up a real value opportunity: Ireland fair odds threshold: 2.59+
Current market odds: around 3.00, meaning there’s genuine value on the Irish side.
If you believe Ireland’s physicality and set-piece consistency can frustrate the All Blacks — and that their form dip may be overstated — this might be the bet to watch.
Across the rest of the weekend, the model and bookmakers are nearly in lockstep. England, South Africa, and Scotland are all overwhelming favourites, leaving little room for betting value. England’s 81% win probability translates cleanly with the bookies’ pricing, and the same applies for South Africa and Scotland.
So while the favourites should all deliver, Ireland v New Zealand stands out — not just as the match of the weekend, but the only real pocket of potential value in the Autumn Tests.
Gallagher Premiership & URC Update
There’s no domestic rugby this weekend, with both the Gallagher Premiership and United Rugby Championship taking a break for the Autumn Internationals.
The URC and the Gallagher Prem will return on 28 November. That means all eyes are firmly on test rugby over the next few weeks — no club fixtures, no domestic drama, just the best of north versus south as the Autumn Internationals take centre stage. French rugby does continue though…
As always, you can find full data, value picks, and match-by-match predictions at sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
