Welcome to the Weekend Preview for 19 September. The Rugby Championship has a pause before it reaches its finale, so it´s a perfect time to review the action so far, and the Women’s World Cup gets serious with the semi-finals. Check out our weekend preview of the action and our analysis of the Rugby Championship.
Rugby Championship Review
The Rugby Championship had another surprising weekend, which has left the competition finely balanced. All four teams have now won twice and lost twice, meaning the table is separated only by bonus points. That reflects both the strength of the competition and the fine margins at play.
South Africa gained revenge on New Zealand with a resounding 43–10 win, collecting a bonus point in the process. It was a result that shook the title picture, though perhaps it simply restored the balance predicted before the tournament began. Meanwhile, Argentina held off a fierce Australian fightback to secure the win, despite the Wallabies coming close to snatching it late on.
As we take stock before the final set of fixtures, Argentina face South Africa twice — first in South Africa, then at a neutral venue in London — while New Zealand meet Australia twice, in Auckland and then Perth.
Australia surprisingly lead the table, with South Africa in second, New Zealand third and Argentina fourth. One might assume New Zealand have squandered their chance, having already played both matches against South Africa at home. Yet this was always the risk highlighted in our preview: South Africa’s schedule handed them four fixtures either at home or effectively so, each with a 90% chance of victory. That gave them the greater overall edge despite New Zealand having the home advantage in their head-to-head.
And so, despite the shocks of the first two weeks — South Africa losing to Australia and New Zealand losing to Argentina — the Championship has unfolded much as our model foresaw. South Africa remain the favourites, given their upcoming fixtures against Argentina, while New Zealand must negotiate Australia home and away. Our latest model gives South Africa a 61% chance of winning, New Zealand 33%, Australia 5%, and Argentina 1%.
Australia may top the table, but their run-in is tough. They must match South Africa’s results against Argentina, which looks unlikely given the Springboks’ heavy edge at home and in London. New Zealand must also better South Africa’s outcomes against Argentina, which is no simple task. All of which sets up a thrilling final two weekends to decide one of the most competitive Championships in recent years.
If we look at the odds on the outright winner, which have shifted as the competition has progressed, they now return to the original prediction with South Africa as favourites — and this time they are clearer favourites than before. Our model gives them a 61% chance of success, with New Zealand at 33%, Australia at 5% and Argentina at just 1%. The bookmakers, however, see it differently: South Africa at 55% and New Zealand at 43%. That creates a small window of value on the Springboks — anything over 1.8 is worth considering, and the best available price is 1.91.
Women’s World Cup Semi Finals
The Women’s World Cup has reached the semi-finals, where real jeopardy enters the equation. The quarter-finals unfolded as expected, with four heavy favourites easing past four underdogs. Scotland, for example, had almost no chance against England according to our model and duly fell 40–8. Yet England’s margin was 19 points fewer than expected, a sign that the gap may be narrowing.
England remain heavy favourites, rated at 87% to overcome France. The French, at around 10%, are outsiders, though semi-finals often add an element of unpredictability. Realistically, England should progress, but the occasion alone raises France’s effective chance of springing a shock to perhaps one in four.
The other semi-final promises far more tension. New Zealand face Canada in what looks like the tightest match of the tournament so far. Our model gives New Zealand a 62% chance and Canada 36%, with a projected scoreline of 26–22 — a razor-thin margin. Canada are ranked second in the world, just four points ahead of New Zealand in third, and their form has tracked closely to expectation. New Zealand’s, by contrast, has been less consistent, with a narrower-than-expected quarter-final win over South Africa. However, New Zealand have a superior head-to-head and higher average points tally which gives them the edge. It all points to a compelling match.
Value Elsewhere in the Market?
Beyond the headline fixtures, there are several opportunities this weekend where our model sees stronger value than the bookmakers.
- Pro D2, Friday PM: Béziers at home to Montois. Our model rates Béziers at 81%, compared with the bookies at 71%. Anything over 1.32 is value; 1.44 is currently available.
- Pro D2, Friday PM: Carcassonne at home to Agen. We give Carcassonne a 74% chance of victory, while the market has them at only 58%. Anything above 1.56 is value; 1.8 can be found.
- NPC, Sunday morning GMT: North Harbour host Northland. Our model puts North Harbour at 54%, versus 44% implied by the odds. Look for prices above 2.03; 2.63 is available.
- NPC, Sunday morning GMT: Waikato away at Tasman. Waikato are at 27%, against just 20% by the market. Not a high-probability pick, but value exists.
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below for all rugby tournaments https://sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast/
