WORLD CUP 2026: Quarter Final Preview
Welcome to the World Cup Quarter Final preview. We had some absolutely fabulous matches in the Round of 16, and some big shocks such as Norway knocking out Brazil, some fairly dullish games such as Switzerland getting through on penalties against Colombia and France battling to a 1-0 victory over Paraguay. However, we also had some fantastic matches with fascinating storylines, not least England, battling against the home support in the Azteca, survived a red card and were able to battle to a 3-2 victory against Mexico. Belgium overcame Trumpian intervention and smashed the USA 4-1. And in the most shocking or exciting game of the round, Argentina recovered from two down with ten minutes to go to win 3-2 against Egypt, not without its own controversial refereeing decisions, to keep the Messi dream alive. Now we roll on to the Quarter Finals and some absolutely fascinating matchups to take a look at.
Knockout Draw
World Cup Quarter Final Preview
Quarter Final 1: France v Morocco
The first quarter final sees France take on Morocco. France are favourites to go through with a 61% chance, with Morocco having a 39% chance, which is closer than possibly one could expect. France’s attack is obviously phenomenal with Mbappe leading the way. However, Morocco overcame Canada comfortably 3-0 and are an excellent team, very well organised, and will carry their own level of threat. However, it will be a big shock if Morocco do manage to get through this game against France.
It is just very difficult to see beyond the attack of France in Mbappe, Dembele, Olise and Barcola, even if Morocco are very well organised and have excellent players themselves, the all round quality of France just suggests they will have too much for them. France’s defence has been pretty good, they haven’t conceded so far in the knockouts, and they have a very solid spine and it is no surprise that they are currently the favourites to win the tournament.
Quarter Final 2: Spain v Belgium
The second quarter final on this side of the draw, which will see the winners face the winners of France Morocco, is Spain against Belgium, two sides that have differing form during this World Cup. Spain, for their part, have got through two challenging knockout games, first very impressively seeing off Austria 3-0 in the Last 32.
Then in the Round of 16 they faced Portugal, and it was a very tactical game without many chances. On paper, Portugal had an excellent, technical side but had been somewhat disappointing this tournament, which led them to actually go on to the other side of the draw and face Spain. Spain, however, were able to rise to the task, and even though Lamine Yamal has not fired yet this tournament, they were able to get the job done with a last minute winner from Mikel Merino. So it does suggest that Spain are actually, without too much fanfare, finding some serious form and are very, very difficult to beat. Spain are yet to concede even at this year’s World Cup.
Belgium, on the other hand, suffered mixed fortunes in the group stages, drawing 1-1 with Egypt, which in hindsight doesn’t look too bad a result as Egypt were minutes away from defeating Argentina. They drew 0-0 with Iran and got through by thrashing New Zealand 5-1. They were then 2-0 down to Senegal going into the final quarter and managed to pluck out a 3-2 victory from nowhere. However, in the last game against the USA, it was dominated in the buildup by the story of Trump influencing FIFA in suspending Florin Balogun’s red card suspension. Belgium were rightly incensed by that and were able to really rise to the occasion, and the USA wilted under the pressure as Belgium thrashed them 4-1. Belgium will be coming into this flying. However, we do suggest that probably Spain have just got too much for Belgium, and this final act for the golden generation. The model actually gives Spain a fairly strong 63% chance of going through against Belgium’s lowly 37%.
Quarter Final 3: Norway v England
This brings us on to the other side of the draw, with the first quarter final being a very, very interesting game in Norway taking on England. Norway, led by Erling Haaland who got both goals, defeated Brazil 2-1, and Brazil’s goal was a last minute penalty. They did very well to deal with Brazil’s threats and were fairly comfortable seeing them off, led by the brilliant Haaland and supported by Odegaard and company. Inspired by their fans, Norway seem to be on a bit of a roll, and we picked them as being a team that could definitely at least get to the quarter final and be a real problem for England.
England, for their part, did fantastically well to defeat Mexico in Mexico 3-2 despite receiving a red card on the hour mark. With Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane performing brilliantly, England can go into this match with some confidence. England are the favourites in the model for this one quite comfortably with a 70% chance of victory, which you’d probably think is slightly overstated, as the model considers the more historical view of the two sides, whereas in the World Cup in this condensed format of fixtures more shock results can happen. So in reality it probably is closer than the model suggests here.
This game does have the hallmarks of being a really good game, and if England can keep Haaland quiet then you’d have to think they would have too much for Norway. However, England have their own problems with injuries at right back, so who can play at right back now remains to be seen. Will Reece James be fit? Will Djed Spence play? It’s all a little bit up in the air. England do know that if push comes to shove, they can just stick Dan Burn on at the back and he’ll clear everything away.
Quarter Final 4: Argentina v Switzerland
And that takes us to the final quarter final, Argentina against Switzerland. Starting off with Switzerland, they got through a very, very dull round of 16 game against Colombia, which had the lowest xG of any knockout game at 0.7. They were very well organised, and we had picked Switzerland as being a potential dark horse team that would be very difficult to beat. However, Colombia were also a promising pick to go far in the tournament, so Switzerland actually did very well to get past them on penalties.
It will be a different kettle of fish against this emotionally charged Argentina side. As previously stated, they were 2-0 down with ten minutes to go against Egypt and, realising that this would be Messi’s last minutes on the world stage, kicked into gear. Messi himself came alive with a brilliant setup for one, scored a brilliant goal himself to level it up. Then, Lautaro Martinez produced an assist which isn’t getting talked up enough, one of the assists of the tournament in the last minute, for Enzo Fernandez to head in the winning goal. Argentina look like they are on a roll, and it looks almost like destiny that they will at least get to the final again. It would be very hard to see how Switzerland will be able to defeat Argentina. The model gives Argentina a 69% chance of going through against 31% for Switzerland. Switzerland will be desperate that Manzambi is fit again after missing out in the round of 16 as he has been their spark in attack. However, he was limping around the stadium, so it is doubtful that he will be fit for the game.
So if the quarter finals pan out as the model suggests, that would give us two epic semi finals in France against Spain and England against Argentina. Currently the model has France coming up as slight favourites against Spain in that semi final with a 51% chance of going through, which really is a coin toss, and Argentina would be favourites against England with a 55% chance, but both excellent games that would be on a knife edge. And in the final itself, the chances between France and Argentina are currently 50/50, so it is impossible to tell.
Updated Outright Chances
Bookies Odds – Outright
If we look at the outright betting for the overall winner, we can see that there is no real value on France, as currently the model and the bookies have it about similar with 22% for the model and 21% with the bookies. Spain have a slight edge, as we give them a 19.7% chance of victory compared to the bookies at 16.5%, so look for anything over 6.0 and you can get odds of 7.00 at the moment, which would be value. Similarly with England, who are usually overpriced, they are currently where the bookies give them a 14.3% chance whereas the model gives them an 18.3% chance of victory, so look for odds over 6.4 and you can find odds of 7.5 available. However, it is Argentina once again that remains undervalued in the markets, with the bookies giving them a 13.7% chance as the fourth favourites whereas the model gives them a 23% chance of victory, so look for anything over 5.1 and there are odds of 8.00 available.
Quarter Final Value
In terms of the quarter final matches themselves, the only value available in the market is surprisingly on England to beat Norway. The value threshold is 1.81 and odds of 1.9 are available. The bookies give England a 53% chance of victory whereas the model gives them a 58% chance of winning in ninety minutes, so a small edge there for England. Do note that this is on victory over ninety minutes, so double check with any bet whether it settles on ninety minutes or includes extra time.
And that’s it for the preview of the quarter finals. This World Cup might have a slight sour taste because of FIFA’s role and one of the host nation’s antics, but the football has been out of this world, and we have a fascinating golden boot race in the mix as well to add to it all. So it promises to be a brilliant end to the World Cup. The disappointing thing is we now only have seven meaningful matches to go before the end of it all.
Make sure you head to https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/world-cup-football-predictions/ where you can play around with all the permutations as the tournament progresses, seeing all of the possible options and how that impacts the knockout stages and the potential chances of victory for each team. It is a really powerful little tool and by far the best wall chart out there.
