WORLD CUP 2026 PREVIEW PART 2 – Dark Horses and Hosts
Welcome to the Football4Cast World Cup 2026 Preview Part 2. The World Cup is just around the corner. Last week in Part 1 we looked at the favourites and their routes to the final. This week we’re going to have a look at some dark horses and also take a look at the Hosts: Mexico, USA and Canada. Can any of them make a splash? The World Cup always throws up surprises so who are the teams that could spring a surprise this year?
Team Chances
As we said, we looked at the main favourites in the first part of our preview. This time we will look at some dark horses who might be able to spring a surprise and take a look at the hosts. From the graphic above which shows the 20 countries with the largest chances of winning the tournament, from France and Spain being tied on 11% each (it could be more for either of them but they are on course to meet in the semi finals), to Morocco with a 0.5% chance according to our model. Considering that they are one of the favourites from Africa and some people’s dark horses we will dig a little into that in more detail below.
As it is tournament football, what is crucial is the draw. This affects the probability of advancing greatly as each side will have different probabilities depending on each opponent, which when totalled up will give an overall probability which will naturally change as the tournament unfolds and shock horror each team does not finish exactly as predicted in the group stage.
But to start with we will look at the highest ranked dark horses, which from a review of pre tournament commentary seem to be grouped around Norway, Japan, Morocco as we have said, Ecuador, and Turkey. It is worth noting that the highest ranked dark horse has just a 3% win probability which sounds miniscule, but when France have an 11% chance as the top ranked team it is not so bad. It is mainly a reflection on just how wide open this tournament is this year and what a fascinating event it will be because of that.
TURKEY
So the highest ranked dark horse is Turkey with a 3% chance of success. Turkey have a very talented team which has rightly been identified with star players such as Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz, young and full of attacking verve and potential. They are in a group with Paraguay, hosts USA and Australia which goes a long way as to why they could make a decent run in the tournament. That is one of the weakest groups in the World Cup, mainly because as hosts, USA take the spot of a top seed. Accordingly Turkey have a strong 71% chance of topping the group which as a dark horse is very large. It is worth noting that another group with a host instead of a top seed is group B with Canada, and Switzerland have a 73% chance of qualifying top which is great news for them and makes them well set to reach the Round of 16 at least.
Back to Turkey, they are strongly backed to win each of their group games, 4-1 against Australia, 2-0 against Paraguay and 3-0 against USA. Topping their group would not be too ideal however, as that would put them on the side of the draw that includes France and Spain. They would get a good draw in the Last 32 which would be a third placed team which is very hard to predict. They would be favourites to go through however, where they would most likely meet Belgium as winners of group G in the Round of 16. That would promise to be a close game but Belgium are marginal favourites. Upset Belgium and they would have a quarter final against Spain and then a semi final against France, so whilst Turkey may be one of the better dark horse teams around, it doesn’t look good for a 2002 semi final run for them.
NORWAY
Another fascinating team will be Norway who are led by the best striker in the world Erling Haaland, and have Martin Odegaard to provide creativity. An underdog team with a few leading talents to do well need a solid support cast around them, and Norway have that with many Premier League players in the squad which does appear very solid.
So in the instance that Haaland catches fire which would be phenomenal to see, in probably the best kit at the World Cup, then it could get very interesting. Norway are in a very difficult group which plays to their disadvantage somewhat, but it is not that bad as first thought. They start off against Iraq which might be tricky but are favourites to get a good win. Those three points will be crucial as that alone might be enough to get a third placed spot, and one point more would definitely do it. They then face Senegal, themselves a very interesting side and one who could do quite well. A draw here would not be too bad a result, leaving them with a game against France knowing they had qualified and a possible opportunity to rest some star names. In any event, Norway are predicted to finish second in the group with a 55% chance and only a 5% chance of finishing bottom.
If they were to finish second, they would come against second place in Group E which could well be Ecuador or Ivory Coast. Ecuador are a team that some fancy and with good reason after a fantastic qualifying tournament and a miserly defensive record. However, Norway would be marginal favourites in that clash to go through, and they are on the decent side of the draw, avoiding France and Spain, Argentina and Portugal. They would come up against Brazil, most likely, where their tournament is scheduled to end at the R16.
But, and it’s a big but, as underdogs and dark horses there must be a shock result or two in there, and there is nothing to suggest that it could not be Norway against Brazil. Brazil are favourites, and have a team stacked with talent. Their talent and the draw has Brazil as one of the favourites for the tournament. But it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Brazil are not at their fluent best, they haven’t worked out a way to balance their midfield with so many attacking stars, and lo and behold Norway hold firm before Haaland grabs a winner.
In that instance they would then come up against England in the quarter finals where they would again be underdogs but with a 32% chance of winning, which is more than against Brazil. England are specialists in failure at World Cups, so a brave man would bet on them to win a World Cup quarter final, no matter the opponent. A Norway England quarter final is far from a sure thing for England.
Which leaves Norway into the semi finals against Argentina or Portugal, top sides no doubt, but not of the level of other favourites for the tournament. Portugal playing with a handbrake in Cristiano and Argentina relying on a 39 year old MLS player. It could happen. Of all the dark horses, Norway are probably the easiest to make a case for. It would certainly be a story if they did.
OTHERS
Of the others of note, Austria are a well organised team with some good players and some have identified them to make an impact. Simply put, they are likely to finish second in their group behind Argentina and ahead of Algeria and Jordan. If they do, they would then face Spain, where it is most likely their tournament comes to an end in the Last 32, which goes to show a good side can get a bad draw and come to a premature end. Whereas a couple of easier games, a bit of momentum and it can all be so different.
Similarly Colombia who could be fancied, with Luis Diaz and co, are due to finish second in their group behind Portugal, and would then face Croatia in the Last 32 as second placed finishers in their group behind England, and that would be close, but a similar problem to Austria, they would then come up against Spain in the Round of 16.
Due to the draw, a real dark horse who could go far would have to come from the lower right quadrant of the draw. The top seeds on that side are Argentina and Portugal, due to meet in the quarter finals, but who have their weaknesses. The possible dark horses who are due to head that way are Uruguay, due to face Argentina in the Last 32, a tasty south American clash in which anything could happen. Then there is Paraguay v Egypt in a Last 32 clash which could go either way, could Salah turn it on for Egypt, Marmoush perhaps? The winner of that faces the winner of Argentina v Uruguay so a real shot of making the quarter finals.
The other quarter finalist will most likely be one of Portugal or Switzerland, due to qualify top of their weak group. So do not be surprised if we get a Swiss semi finalist or even an Egyptian one. That would be a surprise story but one that makes most sense at this stage of the tournament. Switzerland would be our dark horses because of that.
Hosts
A quick note on the hosts for the sake of brevity. Mexico will be electric and their home support might propel them slightly further than their squad, which is not packed with top talent, should get to. They are due to have a decent group stage as it is quite easy with Czechia, South Korea and South Africa. They are favourites to top the group but it is wide open, they only have a 45% chance of doing so, the lowest of all predicted group winners.
That would give them a game against a third placed team in the Last 32 and they would be on the England Brazil quadrant of the draw, and they would face England in the Round of 16 which would be a struggle for them, so a R16 exit looks most likely for Mexico.
USA: Everyone’s favourite hosts…. they also have a slightly easier group than most with Turkey, Paraguay and Australia. However, the strength of their team, or lack thereof, has them finishing in third place where it is very difficult to predict who they would come up against, it would be a first placed team from a group so in that scenario even if they get through as one of the best placed third placed finishers, they would exit at the Round of 32. If they do finish second, that would put them up against Egypt on the good quadrant of the draw however. A R16 match against Argentina would be a dignified exit for the hosts.
That leaves the weakest hosts, Canada, a surprise second placed finish would see them up against Czechia in the Last 32 and then Netherlands in the R16.
World Cup Wall Chart
Make sure you head to https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/world-cup-football-predictions/ where you can play around with all the permutations as the tournament progresses, seeing all of the possible options as you can easily choose who comes where in each group and how that impacts the knockout stages and the potential chances of victory for each team. It is a really powerful little tool and by far the best wall chart out there.
That’s enough for the Previews article. Stay tuned for more content analysis as the tournament unfolds as it promises to be a marathon affair full of twists and turns. Check in on the website to see how each match affects the probabilities moving forward. Enjoy.
