Welcome to the Weekend Preview 11 June. Whilst the Football World Cup kicks off and has the eyes of the world upon it, Rugby has its own spectacle as The Prem and Super Rugby reach their semi final stage, in what promises to be four cracking games.
The Prem Semi-Final Preview
Semi Final 1: Leicester Tigers v Northampton Saints
The first Prem semi final is on Friday night and sees Leicester Tigers head to Franklin Gardens to take on Northampton Saints. The Saints finished top of the table, five points clear of Bath in second. Leicester had been third for a long time and headed into the final weekend playing away at Bath in what was a playoff for a home semi final. Leicester lost, and in so doing dropped to fourth, below Exeter who had their own eliminator to reach the playoffs at all as they beat Saracens at home and ended up in third.
However, in a curious twist, Leicester may be somewhat pleased with the outcome of the final round of matches even if they did lose. If they had ended up in third they would have had to head to the Rec and face Bath again. Instead, on paper they have the harder task in facing the top ranked side away from home. However, it may be exactly what Leicester needed. Heading to Bath again after losing there the week before would have been a big mental challenge. However, Bath won by just two points, which was 5 points fewer than expected, which shows that Leicester actually did alright. Prior to the last two weeks of the season, Leicester were the form team in the Prem with six wins in 7. Losing at home to Exeter was a damaging result, but running Bath so close last weekend shows they have bounced back to a degree. They will have to return to their top form if they want to upset Northampton, but it is far from cut and dried for the Saints.
The Saints have been at the top for a very long time and prior to last weekend had 8 wins in 9. Except that one loss was a 41-17 thrashing by Leicester but at Leicester. Last weekend they lost surprisingly to Harlequins, one of the poorest sides in the competition, but away from home and with top spot already secured it does not mean much.
Overall Northampton are slight favourites, their home form is rock solid with 10 wins out of the last 10 with an average score of 50-28. However the spectre of that loss to Leicester could give Leicester the edge and it is predicted to be very tight with a slight Northampton victory of 26-24 but that close it could clearly go either way. Leicester also have the slight upper hand 3-2 in their last five going back to April 2024.
Semi Final 2: Bath v Exeter Chiefs
The other semi final sees second placed Bath at home to third placed Exeter, which promises to be not quite as close as the other semi final. Or does it….
Bath have been our favourites to win the Prem title since the start of the season and nothing has changed. The model has Bath with a 40% chance of winning overall with Leicester actually being their nearest challenger with 26%, not Northampton as one might expect. However, it is clear that there has been a drop off in Bath’s form, especially considering the European Cup semi final defeat against Bordeaux which clearly showed the difference in class between the best of Britain and their French counterparts. Since then they have lost to their semi final opponents Exeter, badly (but in Exeter), beat Newcastle easily (as everyone does), lost to Bristol and in an important return to form narrowly beat Leicester. But that win, as we noted above, was 5 points fewer than predicted, showing they are not performing at the level expected of them.
Exeter themselves are a chameleon team. A 5-5 record in their last 10 in the Prem, and a 4-1-5 record away from home which isn’t bad. Their recent results include the win at home to Saracens who were on the up with a playoff place on the line, a win away at Leicester, a loss away at Harlequins, that aforementioned win at home against Bath and a loss to Ulster away from home. It’s a real mixed bag, but shows that if they turn up they can mix it with anyone, and they already have Bath’s number.
The model is predicting a Bath win at 79% but that looks a little on the heavy side. It may well be a lot closer but one would still predict Bath to edge it.
Super Rugby Semi Final Preview
Semi Final 1: Chiefs v Crusaders
The first semi final is between the Chiefs and Crusaders in what promises to be a really good match and a repeat of last year’s final when the Crusaders upset the Chiefs 16-12. By the time you read this they will probably be kicking off so be quick or watch a repeat without finding out the score.
The Chiefs go into this with home advantage which makes them favourites. We give them a 74% chance of victory with a winning margin of 10 points. Seems fairly straightforward. However, the Chiefs had a bruising encounter against the Reds in the quarter finals, and although the scoreline was quite comfortable in the end it was a tough game, and could have swung the Reds’ way. The Chiefs were not at their fluent best and will need to improve this time out.
Meanwhile the Crusaders were excellent in steamrollering the Blues 52-31, and whilst that defence looks leaky, they won by 8 more points than predicted. The Chiefs’ form is rock solid however with 9 wins in their last 10, except that one loss being against the Crusaders three rounds ago. So Crusaders will be full of confidence knowing they can get a result against the Chiefs. The Chiefs will be desperate to make the final again and this time actually win it after three final defeats in a row. Two of those final defeats were to the Crusaders so mental scars abound for the Chiefs. They should probably have too much for the Crusaders and watch out for Isaac Hitchinson at full back for the Chiefs who is a potential star and was brilliant against the Reds in really tough conditions.
Semi Final 2: Hurricanes v Blues
The second semi final is a strange one. The Canes have been top of the table all year and our pick to win the tournament all year, and they walked past the Brumbies in the quarter final. The Blues lost pretty badly to the Crusaders but due to the nature of the Super Rugby tournament, they make the semi final anyway as the highest ranked quarter final loser. Or qualifying final as they call it over there.
The Canes won both of the matches between them in the regular season and are heavy favourites to win again. We have them with a 79% chance of victory with a 20 point winning margin. Anything other than a Hurricanes’ victory would be a massive shock.
Over their last 10 at home the Canes are 10 and 0 so that’s not great reading for the Blues, meanwhile the Blues have lost their last three away. Beauden Barrett returns at 15 for the Blues, in a rejigged back line, so it’s a bit of hit and hope territory for them. Still, both teams are pretty decent so the Blues could cause an upset. Probably wouldn’t bet on it though.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Not so many matches, but what there are will be excellent fare. Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities @ Rugby4Cast
