WORLD CUP 2026: Round of 16 Preview
Welcome to the World Cup Round of 16 preview. We’ve had some brilliant games and excellent action as we head into the Round of 16, and the Last 32 provided plenty of excitement and controversy. Read on as we preview all the action and have a look at the betting markets and find some interesting value.
Knockout Draw
Semi Final Quadrant 1: Canada v Morocco and Paraguay v France
The round of sixteen kicks off today with Canada playing Morocco. Morocco overcame the Netherlands on penalties in the Last 32 and are definitely the strongest of the African nations who remain, between them and Egypt, as all the others have fallen by the wayside. Canada overcame South Africa 1-0, a fairly easy draw for Canada, but great considering the home nation is doing well this World Cup. However, it looks like their run will come to an end against Morocco, and we have Morocco as fairly comfortable favourites with a 68% chance of going through with Canada at 32%. Then later on today we have Paraguay facing France. Paraguay produced one of the shocks of the round in the Last 32, defeating Germany. However, it looks like their run will come to an end against France, who looked imperious against Sweden with Mbappe in brilliant form, along with Olise, Barcola, Dembele, Doue and company.
France have a fairly good draw going forward, as in the quarter finals they are due to face Morocco, and the winners of that will probably play Spain in the semi final. We have France as the favourites now to win the tournament with a 21% chance of lifting the trophy.
Semi Final Quadrant 2: Portugal v Spain and USA v Belgium
On the other side of the draw, or rather the other quadrant, Portugal play against Spain. Portugal can consider themselves very, very lucky to have got through their Last 32 game against Croatia, with some suspect technology coming to the aid in providing an offside decision, meaning Croatia did not get that last minute equaliser and take it to extra time. Cristiano, with all eyes on him, is in fairly average form and came off before Portugal got the winner. Spain, meanwhile, looked very comfortable in defeating what we previously considered a very dangerous Austrian side, and Spain were very comfortable 3-0 winners and could have been more, so after a fairly slow start to the tournament they look to be finding their rhythm, and they have a 60% chance of going through again, this time against Portugal.
They will face the winners of USA and Belgium. USA, down to ten men, managed to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0, and they will play Belgium who somehow got past Senegal in the last seconds. Belgium we have as slight favourites at 55%, but they are not in good form, it is fair to say, with potential internal disputes between Leandro Trossard and Youri Tielemans. It will be interesting to see if home momentum can take the USA through to the quarter final where they will probably face Spain.
Semi Final Quadrant 3: Brazil v Norway and Mexico v England
On the other half of the draw, in one quadrant we have Brazil, who face Norway. Brazil, who got through their game against Japan in the Last 32 with a last minute winner from Martinelli, have looked okay but not great, whereas Norway will be confident going in following a 2-1 victory over the dangerous Ivory Coast. Whilst we have Brazil here as favourites with a 67% chance of going through, it would not be a surprise if Norway, and especially with Haaland in the form that he is in, were able to get a result.
They will play the winners of a very enticing match between Mexico at home in the Azteca against England, and you probably would have read a lot that has been written about playing at altitude and the advantage Mexico will have. This game really is a bit on a knife edge, as we have England as slight favourites at 57%, but it definitely falls into the category of could go either way, so do not be surprised if Mexico can get the victory, with England having needed Harry Kane to rescue them in the Last 32 game against Dr Congo.
The winners of those matches will play each other, so according to the model it will be a Brazil England quarter final.
Semi Final Quadrant 4: Argentina v Egypt and Colombia v Switzerland
In the final quadrant, Argentina, who suffered a real scare against the marvellous Cape Verde, going through 3-2 after extra time, are heavy favourites against Egypt, who got through their Last 32 game against Australia on penalties and have not looked fluent, so we have Argentina as heavy favourites at 77% to go through against Egypt.
Colombia against Switzerland promises to be a very good game, as Switzerland have been quietly excellent, getting past Algeria 2-0 in the Last 32, whilst Colombia only won 1-0 against Ghana but were clearly the superior team and looked pretty good value, so that Colombia against Switzerland game is a bit of a knife edge. We have Colombia at 54% and Switzerland on 46%, but Colombia, with vociferous support in the stadiums, will be looking to get through to the quarter finals where they will face Argentina.
On this side of the bracket, the winners of that quarter final, which could be Argentina or Colombia, will face the winners of the Brazil, England, Norway or Mexico section, which will make for a very exciting semi final, and that completes the draw as it stands.
Updated Outright Chances
Now looking at the overall chances of winning the tournament as per the model, as we previously mentioned, we have France as favourites, followed by Argentina with a 19% chance, and if you look at their probability of reaching the final, those two teams have by far the highest likelihood, France on 35% and Argentina on 33%. The win probability drops because that match is pretty much 50/50 as it stands, so those two teams are the clear favourites to reach the final. Following them are Spain, who have a very good chance of reaching the semi final together with England, surprisingly, and both of them, Spain and England, have a 20% and 21% chance respectively of progressing to the final, with a 12% and 11% chance respectively of winning it. Brazil are on a 17% chance of getting to the final, with Morocco on a 15% chance.
Bookies Odds – Outright
Now if we turn to the betting markets, we’ll have a look at whether there is any value in the outright winner. Currently France and the bookies have it pretty much similar, with our model on 20.9% against 20.5% with the bookies. Spain are slightly overvalued at the bookies, who have them at a 16.5% chance, whereas we give them only 11.8%, and similarly England are overvalued as the third favourites at 14.3% with the bookies against 11% with us. Argentina is where the value is, as the bookies only give them a 13.7% chance of winning whereas we give them 18.5%, so the value threshold on Argentina is 6.4 and above and you can find odds of 8.00, which makes that the clear value bet at the moment for winning the tournament. Portugal have a lowly 4.7% chance according to the model against 8.6% with the bookies, and Brazil have a slight edge in that we give them an 8.2% chance of overall success against odds of 7.2, but of the favourites the value is clearly with Argentina. Of the outsiders, the best outside bet currently is with Morocco, as we give them a 6.7% chance of winning the tournament whereas the bookies have them at only 3.2%, so look for odds over 17.7 and you can get odds of 46.00 on Morocco, which is your bag if you’re looking for a real outsider bet.
Round of Sixteen Value
If we look at the bets for the round of sixteen itself, the best value currently is with, surprisingly, Mexico against England, as the odds on England to win give them an implied probability of 40% whereas we consider they have a 47% chance of victory, so the value threshold on England in that game is 2.25 and there are odds of 2.51 available, which of the matches currently makes that the standout pick as the others tend to seem fairly well valued.
So that’s all for the round of 16 preview, in what promises to be a brilliant round of action as the World Cup really heats up and, whisper it quietly, potentially becomes one of the all time great World Cups. Hopefully we get some more surprises and some great performances, whilst the Golden Boot race is also fascinating with Mbappe, Messi, Haaland and possibly Kane providing a real spectacle.
Make sure you head to https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/world-cup-football-predictions/ where you can play around with all the permutations as the tournament progresses, seeing all of the possible options and how that impacts the knockout stages and the potential chances of victory for each team. It is a really powerful little tool and by far the best wall chart out there.
