Welcome to the Weekend Preview 3 July. The domestic season came to an end everywhere with Northampton overcoming Exeter in a gripping final. Leinster steamrollered the Bulls, the Hurricanes were imperious against the Chiefs, and Toulouse defeated Montpellier. Now, international rugby is back with the inaugural Nations Championship as the NH teams head to the south to test themselves as we are little over a year out from the next World Cup in Australia. Let’s take a look at all the action.
2026 Nations Championship
The 2026 Nations Championship is the inaugural edition of a brand new international rugby union competition featuring twelve men’s teams. The sides are divided into two pools of six and play a full round robin against the teams in the opposing pool across the mid year and end of year windows, with the top teams in each pool advancing to a final in London. Running concurrently is a second competition known as the World Rugby Nations Cup. Whilst promotion and relegation between the two competitions is intended for the future, there will be none in this first edition, so think of it for now as two separate tiers running in parallel rather than a single interconnected system.
New Zealand v France
Next weekend we have some fabulous matchups to get us kicked off. France v New Zealand is probably the biggest headliner, with New Zealand entering into a new phase under a new coach in Dave Rennie following the dismissal of Scott Robertson after a poor record of 7 wins in their last 10 and a poor defeat to England. Ardie Savea is the new captain, which is fair enough as he is an absolute monster, and they will need him to be at his best to lead New Zealand into a bit of rebuilding work to get the aura back heading into the World Cup.
France head to the Southern Hemisphere without some big stars, with some players having already played their allotted minutes for the season, including Louis Bielle Biarrey. However, there are still considerably more first team players heading on the trip than last year, which was something of a scandal when France sent a young second string side to New Zealand on tour.
New Zealand have the slight edge in this matchup, but it will be a great contest. France will be keen to show that their strength in the Six Nations can translate into an elusive World Cup win next year. It will also be fascinating to see how New Zealand play under Dave Rennie, who likes to play an attractive brand of rugby. As the Hurricanes just crushed all before them in Super Rugby, he could do worse than to just field them all and see how they go.
South Africa v England
England head to South Africa in a daunting matchup that promises to be quite revealing, but probably more so for England. South Africa are in fine form and remain such a formidable prospect. They have a tantalising three match series against the All Blacks later on in the summer, so they will want to warm up well with matches against England, Scotland and Wales. Their team is quite ridiculous. In our rankings South Africa are a whopping 8 points clear of New Zealand in second place. For context, 8 points separates New Zealand in second and Argentina in sixth, so the size of their superiority is clear.
They won a clean sweep of their autumn tour in the Northern Hemisphere, and in their last 5 against England have won 4. We have the Boks at a very high 77% chance of victory with England at just 22%. This match will most likely end in a Bok victory, so what will be interesting is to see how England measure up against a top side. England had a poor Six Nations with defeats to France, Italy, Ireland and Scotland. However, going into the tournament there was real talk of hope as they had cut the gap to the top sides. With Maro Itoje missing, it still is an interesting lineup from England. Fin Smith at 10 is in fine form, George Furbank returns at 15, and the experiment of Freeman at 13 continues. They have a decent pack with Curry and Earls, Pollock on the bench, and Ollie Chessum adding bulk as well. It just remains to be seen whether they can put a performance together against a top side.
To counter those shoots of positivity, South Africa bring an absolute monster pack with bucket loads of experience in The Ox, Malcolm Marx, Etzebeth, Kolisi and Du Toit, and then in the backs they have Kriel and De Allende in the centres and Cheslin Kolbe on the wing. Quite simply it is very hard to see how they will be stopped, but it will be a great test for England.
Australia v Ireland
Ireland head to Australia to face Joe Schmidt, now in charge of the Wallabies but who was a key component in building Ireland into the force they have been in recent memory. There was a lot of talk about Irish decline prior to the Six Nations and a heavy loss to France in the opening match seemed to confirm this, but they were able to recuperate and won all of their remaining fixtures, only just losing out to France to win the tournament. Leinster, with a strong national team core, then went on to make the final of the European Cup and win the URC to suggest that talk of Irish decline is a little premature.
They take a strong team to Australia with Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Josh van der Flier, Jamison Gibson Park, Garry Ringrose and Hugo Keenan, with Bundee Aki and Tadhg Beirne starting on the bench. Ireland have also won their last five against Australia, and we have them as favourites to win this matchup in Sydney with a 75% winning chance. It should be interesting though as Australia are desperate to put a team together that is capable of challenging in their home World Cup next year. They did go into their autumn tour last year with optimism following some decent results in the Rugby Championship, and a good showing in the second and third tests against the Lions. But they hit the buffers with a really poor tour of the NH.
Are there reasons to be optimistic for the Wallabies? Well, Joe Schmidt should be a bonus, but last year’s Northern Hemisphere tour was pretty damaging as they suffered bad defeats to England, Italy, Ireland and France. He is a very wise rugby coach and world class though, so they should trust in him after previous coaching debacles. Australia also have some fine players, with Bell, Alaalatoa and Valentini in the pack, whilst Ikitau and Suaalii in the centres is as good as anyone, and they have a lot of decent options on the wing. Dylan Pietsch could be one to look out for. However, Australia struggle with depth and at 10 they have turned to Carter Gordon, who has had a decent Super Rugby season, but it remains to be seen whether he is international class. On a good day they can give anyone a game, but that will be hard going to win anything of note. Australia are a good watch though so this game should be worth tuning in to.
The Rest
In other matches this weekend, Argentina host Scotland who will be without Finn Russell, so it will be interesting to see how they get on. Argentina are infuriating, capable of beating the All Blacks in New Zealand one day, or South Africa in South Africa, but also capable of falling apart. This is the time for them to put a really strong body of work together if they want to be contenders for next year’s World Cup, because they have talent in abundance and play great rugby, they just need to put it together more often. Japan host Italy in what should be a close match as Italy seek to continue their growth but will come up against a stubborn Japanese side, whilst Fiji also host Wales in a real battle where Wales need a good performance as they are in the doldrums.
Betting Outlook
Turning to where the value lies across the weekend, the standout play is Ireland to beat Australia in Sydney, which the model rates as our strongest recommendation of the round with the price of 1.60 being the value threshold and 1.79 is available. We rate Ireland at 66% chance to win whilst the bookies have them at 52%. Fiji at home to Wales is another one worth a look, with value at 1.71+ and flagged as a solid bet given how poorly Wales are travelling at the moment. Beyond those two the margins are slimmer, though there is some appeal in backing Japan with value at 2.93+. France also have a slightly higher chance of victory than the bookies are allowing for.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities @ Rugby4Cast
