Welcome to the Weekend Preview 10 July. We had a great start to the 2026 Nations Championship with some real humdingers. Ireland survived a rejuvenated Australia who missed a last minute penalty to win. New Zealand got a good win at home against France, in a real heavyweight contest. South Africa did the business against England as expected, although there were some promising signs for England despite the early onslaught which saw the Boks go 17-0 up in about 5 minutes.
Scotland then were mightily impressive in defeating a poor Argentina 47-38. Wales beat Fiji away… in Cardiff, but still a good result, and Japan got a strong home win against Italy. We now have another weekend of bumper action with some interesting matches, probably not on the same scale as last weekend. Read on as we preview all of the action.
2026 Nations Championship Results Week 1
2026 Nations Championship Preview Week 2
Overall, it’s not quite as impressive a slate as last weekend which had some real heavyweight clashes. The two standout matches are probably France against Australia and South Africa hosting Scotland. The others are a little bit b-list.
Australia v France
Australia will be looking to get a victory against a big team after going so close against Ireland. That match will give the Aussies plenty of confidence, although we seem to write that about them far too often. They are close, but can’t quite seem to make that step up and get regular victories against the big boys. The Lions tour, despite losing, looked to point to a brighter future, but as the defeats pile up, that is 8 in their last 10, the positivity will run out fast. With a home World Cup on the horizon, all of the rugby community will want Australia to go in with confidence and a team capable of capturing the public’s imagination. A strong Australia is good for rugby as a whole. The last time these two met in November, Australia were decent for a while, then France steamrollered them. We would be hesitant to suggest that the same will not happen again.
France themselves are not quite the team that they were, there has been a little drop off. They were pretty decent against the All Blacks last weekend, and that’s understating it. They almost won in New Zealand which is no mean feat. Without a couple of their major stars they are missing a bit of that potential game winning pizazz, but they should have too much for Australia once again. We have France as the clear favourites with a 73% chance of victory with a predicted scoreline of 30-21. Australia might take some solace in that they have won their last 5 encounters against France in Brisbane where they play on Saturday. Australia are definitely growing as a squad though, so don’t be surprised if they upset the odds, in what should be a good game.
South Africa v Scotland
The other standout game is not one that we necessarily predict to be a close one. The truth of the matter is that South Africa are streets ahead of everyone else in rugby right now. Their strength in depth is ridiculous, they have talent all across the backline and one of the most lethal finishers in Cheslin Kolbe. That step last weekend to send Caden Murley for a sandwich in the car park off a standing start was mesmeric. Therefore we fully expect South Africa to pick up another victory this weekend. They have won their last 9 in a row against the Scots, have won 9 in their last 10 and have a 91% chance of winning according to the model. Why bother tuning in you might say?
Well, first, to watch the Boks is a rugby education right now, and a sight to behold. However, on the other side of the coin is a Scotland side in an interesting place. Some big victories against England and France in the Six Nations mixed in with some shockers like losing to Italy. They have started the summer thrashing Argentina in Argentina which is not an easy task. So they are coming into this with a bit of form. Half their side is South African so they shouldn’t feel too out of place, and they have Finn Russell back at ten. They have a strong backline, capable of doing damage against anyone. The question is whether their pack can stand up to the Boks. The answer is probably no, but you never know.
The Rest
In the other matches this weekend, New Zealand gets the ball rolling against Italy with a 93% chance of victory. Italy will be disappointed with the result against Japan, so will be keen to come out and give a better account of themselves. New Zealand were far from perfect against France but they “got the job done” in common Football World Cup parlance.
Japan take on Ireland which will be a challenge for the Irish as Japan will be coming in with plenty of confidence following their victory against Italy, although Ireland won’t be short of that themselves after seeing off Australia, despite needing Donaldson to shank a tough penalty in the 81st minute to get the win. We give Ireland an 89% chance of victory.
England will head to Liverpool to play Fiji, both sides in uncomfortable foreign conditions. Fiji will be keen to show up a bit better than they did in losing to Wales last weekend, and England will have to lick their wounds and sort themselves out after getting a beating in South Africa. England did show some serious courage in not buckling after going 17-0 down and getting to within 3 points at half time. That was about as good as it got though as South Africa ran out 45-21 winners.
Finally, Argentina take on Wales, desperately needing a win to restore some pride following that really poor defeat to Scotland last weekend. Wales have won two matches in a row for the first time in a very long time, and will be keen to keep the ball rolling. Argentina will have to show that the match against Scotland was a hiccup and not that they have slipped considerably in the rankings.
2026 Nations Championship Tournament Chances
South Africa are way out in front with a whopping 53% chance of overall tournament victory. New Zealand are the next best with 18% which just shows the difference between South Africa and the rest. Ireland and France have 11% and 10% chances respectively as those with outside chances of victory.
Betting Outlook
Unsurprisingly, the majority of matches are fairly accurately priced with the bookies and the R4C model aligning up fairly closely. The only match with any kind of discrepancy is Fiji v England, with Fiji being undervalued at the bookies. The bookies give Fiji an implied probability of 8% whilst the model gives them a much healthier 24%. Be warned, this is still clearly a longer shot, although this kind of mispricing is bread and butter for the model. But another word of caution, the match is down as a home fixture for Fiji, which will tilt the scales in their favour when in fact it is in Liverpool and more like a home fixture for England, although that is debatable. However, the Fiji advantage for being at home is non existent, and so it is one to be careful with.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities @ Rugby4Cast
