Welcome to the Weekend Preview 1 May. It’s European Champions Cup Semi-Final time and one of the best weekends on the domestic rugby calendar with two great semi-finals lined up. We preview both games in depth and preview the European Challenge Cup semi-finals as well.
European Champions Cup Preview
The Overall Picture
Before we look at the individual games, here is where the tournament chances stand heading into this weekend.
Leinster are the model’s favourites to lift the trophy in Bilbao on 45%, with Bordeaux just behind them on 39%. Toulon and Bath are both on 8%. So the model is saying this is essentially a two-horse race, and that the two most likely finalists should get through these semi-finals unscathed. Leinster vs Bordeaux final is the most likely outcome, and one that was predicted by us and many others before the season started.
Leinster vs RC Toulon
Leinster are the heavy favourites in the first semi-final as we predict a 34-15 win for the Irish team. Leinster have been our pick to reach the final for a long time and mainly because of the strength of the draw. Toulon are not the Toulon of old when they had Jonny managing things from 10 and Nonu and co outside him. Toulon are firmly mid-table in the Top 14, sitting in 8th place. Only a month ago they were thrashed at home by Stade Francais. In the Last 16 they did well to overcome the Stormers by a point at home to reach the quarter-final where they stunned Glasgow by winning away 22-19. They are led by the fantastic Charles Ollivon and have Baptiste Serin at scrum-half, who would have many more French caps if it were not for a certain Dupont. However they have a terrible defensive record in the Top 14, only the three bottom sides have conceded more points, and you cannot get away from their league placing.
Leinster on the other hand are sensing that this is a perfect moment to get to the Champions Cup Final again. An easy path to the final has opened up as they beat a poor Sale side in the quarter-final and comfortably beat Edinburgh in a home Last 16 clash. Leinster are not the force of old either, but they are still on track for a playoff spot and winning the league, and favourites to make the Champions Cup Final. That must be respected. They did lose away at Benetton last weekend to underline that they are not indestructible, but it will be a very tough ask for this Toulon team to get a result in Dublin.
The head-to-head record is also worth flagging. Toulon lead it four wins to nil, and the average across their last ten meetings reads 15-25 to Toulon. That is ancient history in terms of the relative strengths of these squads, but it does at least tell you that Toulon should have no innate psychological trauma at this fixture.
Looking at the markets, the bookies have Leinster at 76% implied probability at odds of 1.29, while our model gives them 89%. Odds of 1.38+ are great value for Leinster.. Toulon are available at around 4.33, but we would not chase that. The model is clear here.
Bordeaux v Bath
This one is tasty. The reigning champions, Bordeaux are heavy favourites to reach the final again. They are at home, and got to the semi-final by dispatching rivals Toulouse in a great game that was fairly comfortable in the end. They have not been properly tested as yet in the Champions Cup, and are coming into this match off the back of two domestic defeats, away at La Rochelle and at home to Montpellier. But when they are firing they are nigh on unstoppable, and in Louis Bielle-Biarrey they have the most electric back since Cheslin Kolbe at his 2019 peak.
They are up against Bath, who are on a mission to become the number one side in domestic rugby in the northern hemisphere. They are on track for a rematch against Northampton in the Prem playoff final, and beat Northampton in an epic match in the quarter-final. They also have the best ten in the game in Finn Russell pulling the strings, and when it comes together they will be able to beat anybody. We think this will be a brilliant match, and although Bath are underdogs, they could really pull off a surprise. Bath’s form has been sensational. Nine wins from their last ten across all competitions. Johann van Graan has built something genuinely special in Bath and this is their first semi-final in 20 years.
The market has Bordeaux at 80% implied probability at odds of 1.22, while our model has them at 76%. That is actually a case where the bookies are slightly overestimating Bordeaux, Our model gives Bath 22% against an implied market probability of around 18-20%. It is not a wide gap but it is there and one to keep an eye on.
The Challenge Cup Semi Finals
Ulster v Exeter
The Challenge Cup semi-finals also take place this weekend, and the pick of them sees Ulster host Exeter at the Affidea in Belfast. We are leaning Ulster at 68%, with a predicted margin of plus seven, and home advantage is once again the decisive factor, adding 5.4 points to a side that have won eight of their last ten at Belfast and average 32-17 at home across that period. Exeter away from home have been inconsistent at best, winning just four of their last ten on the road, and Ulster’s crowd will make the Affidea a difficult place to visit on a Saturday afternoon.
Exeter have improved a lot this year and this is genuinely a game that could go either way. Ulster edge it at home, but Exeter could well spring a surprise.
The bookies actually have it a lot closer than we do. They think that it is pretty much 50/50, whereas we give Ulster a 68% chance. Probably one to steer clear of, or keep an eye out on those Ulster odds. If they go above 1.93 then it could be a great opportunity.
Montpellier v Dragons
Whilst it’s nice to see a Welsh team this far into a European competition, this one looks to be a rather one-sided contest. Montpellier have won their last ten at home whilst the Dragons have won three out of ten away from home, albeit they are on a three match winning streak away from home. The Dragons did very well to beat Stade Francais and Zebre away from home to get to the semi-final so they have plenty of mental toughness. However, their lowly league position of 14 of 16 betrays their real level. Montpellier on the other hand are having a fine old season and sit third, level on points with second place Pau. They surely will have too much for this Dragons side and the model has them as 90% favourites.
The Bookies have it even more cut and dried with Montpellier having a 96% chance. Whilst there may be a price differential for the Dragons, the starting price is so high that it is not worth the bet.
Super Rugby Round 12 of 16
Standings & Chances
Canes and Chiefs are neck and neck at the top of the table, whilst the Blues look to have a playoff spot sewn up. Crusaders and Brumbies are fighting it out for fourth spot, and the Reds are hanging on to a playoff place, with the Highlanders and Tahs eager to join the party.
Last Weekend’s Results
We got five from five last weekend as it panned out, results wise, as expected. There were home wins across the board as the Crusaders beat the Tahs, the Canes beat the Brumbies comfortably, the Blues were pushed very close by the Reds, and the Highlanders and Chiefs got the job done against Moana and the Drua respectively.
Super Rugby Weekend Predictions
The Canes look like they will keep up their winning ways by beating the Crusaders quite comfortably. The Tahs should also get the job done against the Force, and the Drua could get a rare win against the Highlanders. The Blues should beat Moana comfortably before we have a great game as the Reds face off against the Brumbies, as sixth plays fifth.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast
