It is not inconceivable that Arsenal completely take back the initiative in the title race this weekend and don’t let go until they are crowned Champions.
Weekend Preview 1 May – Arsenal to Regain the Initiative?
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview, 1 May. With just four matches to go we preview a key weekend in the title race and the battle to avoid the drop. We also review Scotland as an epic weekend left the title race wide open.
Premier League Standings
Only two weekends ago, Arsenal lost to Man City and slipped to second as City beat Burnley a few days later. Every pundit and podcaster was lining up to declare the contest over and Man City the Champions as Arsenal’s mental fragility came to the fore. Following last weekend’s action, Arsenal now have a chance to extend their lead to 6 points before Man City kick off on Monday evening. Our model was fairly clear, Arsenal had the easier run-in and were always the favourites.
Now Arsenal are back up to having a 68% chance of winning the title and are on the verge of the Champions League final following a 1-1 draw away against Atletico Madrid. This weekend Arsenal host Fulham whilst Man City have to go to Everton. It is not inconceivable that Arsenal completely take back the initiative in the title race this weekend and don’t let go until they are crowned Champions.
The Relegation Battle: Spurs v West Ham
At the bottom, both Spurs and West Ham got wins in fairly dramatic circumstances as the gap between them was maintained at two points. The model, however, is suggesting that time is running out for Spurs. Those two points could really make the difference. We now have Spurs at 71% to go down with West Ham at just 28%. This weekend West Ham have to travel to Brentford, which could be a real challenge. They then face Arsenal at home, Newcastle away and then Leeds at home on the last day of the season. Arsenal gunning for the title, Newcastle at home, it’s not inconceivable that they manage 3 points from their remaining matches by beating Leeds on the last day.
Meanwhile, Spurs head to Aston Villa, who are comfortable in fifth and the champions league spots with an 8 point gap between them and Brighton. They then face Leeds at home, Chelsea away and host Everton on the final day. One could envisage that Spurs can slip out of this mess by beating Leeds and picking up a win from Villa, Chelsea or Everton. However, if West Ham win one of their remaining fixtures, Spurs must win two. That is what makes Spurs favourites to go down.
This Weekend’s Premier League Fixtures
Aside from the title race and the relegation battle, there are several other interesting matches this weekend in the race for Europe. It’s a bit complicated so stay with us, but probably there could be up to 8 teams in Europe next year.
Champions League places seem to be sewn up and the top 5 will look like this. 5th place qualifies for the Champions League due to the Premier League’s coefficient (relative strength of league).
The team in 6th qualifies for the Europa League (currently Brighton) and the team in 7th would qualify for the Conference League (currently Bournemouth). The FA Cup Winner also qualifies for the Europa League which would be City or Chelsea. But City are already in the Champions League, so if they win, sixth and seventh take the Europa League spots and 8th place would qualify for the Conference League.
If Villa win the Europa League they qualify for the Champions League and then 6th place would take up the coefficient Champions League place but 7th would remain Conference League, although what happens if City wins the FA Cup in that scenario is beyond the scope of this article.
Basically, get in the top 8 and you have a real shot at European football next year.
The gap between 6th and 10th is 2 points and the gap between Brighton in 6th ad Newcastle in 14th is just 8 points. Therefore, the matches this weekend between Newcastle and Brighton takes on a bigger significance, especially as Howe is under pressure at Newcastle and the owners are in town. Sunderland could also do with the win against already relegated Wolves. Bournemouth host Crystal Palace as Bournemouth look to make their place a lot more secure with a victory, and Chelsea host Nottingham Forest on Bank Holiday Monday.
What would normally be a massive match between Liverpool and Manchester United is a bit of a damp squib as both sides look nailed on for Champions League. Man City finish off the weekend needing a victory against Europe chasing Everton. All in all, it should be a great weekend with the majority of matches having a lot riding on them.
Scotland – Drama!
Hearts get a late winner against 9 man Hibs in a crazy derby to maintain their hopes of the league title. Three points clear with 4 games to go, they just might do it. The big loser last weekend was Rangers who were perfectly placed to challenge Hearts but lost to Motherwell 3-2. Celtic saw off Falkirk to keep up the pressure.
Hearts have the edge now, as Rangers have dropped well off after being firm favourites before last weekend. It is so tight that every game sees massive swings in the algo’s odds.
This weekend, the big game is Hearts v Rangers. Defeat would definitely knock out Rangers from the title race and would be a giant leap for Hearts. Celtic must go to Hibs and get a win to keep up the pressure on Hearts.
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