Welcome to the Six Nations Week 3 preview, 20 February. Last weekend, we had quite a shock as Scotland bounced back from their opening-day defeat to Italy in some style, smashing England at Murrayfield. Of the three title favourites, Ireland and England now have one loss each, while France remain unbeaten.
Ireland themselves suffered a massive scare, almost losing to Italy in Dublin. Is this further evidence of Ireland being on the wane, or are Italy simply a lot better than we give them credit for?
We take a look at what all of this means for each country as we review the overall Six Nations title chances. We also preview this weekend’s matches, with England hosting Ireland the pick of the action. There is a break after this round before the tournament finishes with the remaining fixtures played back-to-back over the final two weeks.
What Happened in Week 2?
Scotland v England
England travelled to Scotland fairly confident after a strong run of form. Scotland came into this match on the back of a tame defeat in Rome, almost certainly condemning them to another disappointing tournament once again. We had predicted beforehand that England had a strong chance of victory at around 63%, but that it was certainly not a foregone conclusion. In fact, it was this game that we highlighted in our previews as the reason England had the lowest overall tournament chances of France, Ireland, and England. Scotland were to be the kingmakers, and it just might be so.
What followed had a familiar feel to recent Calcutta Cup fixtures at Murrayfield. Scotland rose to the occasion magnificently, and England wilted. Scotland raced into a very healthy lead before England finally got their act together and began to dominate territory and possession. However, by then the damage was already done. Scotland didn’t need to do anything special in the second half, defend resolutely, take their chances, and the match was theirs.
It was a tremendous performance by Scotland. A performance so good it is actually frustrating. If they had simply been a bit lucky, or had capitalised on an opponent who was miles off it, it would be less annoying. But by blowing away a leading contender, it only leaves the question: why can’t they play like this all the time? They could win the World Cup if they could only do it on a rainy Tuesday night at Stoke.
Ireland v Italy
The match of the weekend. This was predicted to be a bit of a cakewalk for Ireland. Despite Italy’s excellent performance and result against Scotland, Ireland were expected to have far too much firepower for them. Ireland were in need of a pick-me-up following their Parisian pummelling, and Italy at home seemed just what the doctor ordered.
What followed was an excellent to-and-fro contest, and for long periods it looked as though it might be going the way of the Italians. However, Ireland managed to do just enough to turn the match around and were able to win 20–13. This was 15 fewer points than expected, which shows two things: Ireland are miles off the pace, and Italy are a lot better than previous iterations.
Wales v France
This match went exactly as predicted. France walloped Wales 54–12. The only slightly surprising thing is that France won by 18 more points than expected, so they are clearly in form, even if it is hard to draw any meaningful conclusions from such an easy victory against truly average opposition.
Who’s Going to Win Now & How Has It Changed?
The Standings
BEFORE WEEK 2
AFTER WEEK 2
France have really taken a stranglehold on the competition now. Their chances of winning the Grand Slam have risen from 34% to 39% (a result of England losing ground in the international rankings and France improving), and overall they have an 85% chance of winning the tournament. England’s chances of winning have dropped from 26% to just 6%, level with Ireland.
This is also explained by the fact that France have two bonus points, while England only have one and Ireland have none. In the event that France miss out on the Grand Slam, it will almost certainly come down to bonus points, and France have the advantage.
Scotland have given themselves a shot at a second or third placed finish, and Italy, despite improving, are more likely to finish fifth. Wales have the wooden spoon sewn up, so chapeau Wales.
Week Three Fixtures
This weekend sees one very close match in England v Ireland and two games which should be fairly straightforward. Both sides need the win if they are to win the tournament. England have the advantage but its very slight. 64% against 34%, that six point gap being mostly because England are at home. On the eye test. one would probably say Ireland are in a worse vein of form overall, and so England should probably win this one. But just how much will England’s confidence be knocked by that Scotland defeat?
The other matches really aren’t too much to shout about. Scotland should head to Cardiff and put some points past Wales. If they don’t, then *shudder*. Italy should have some confidence to take to Lille, but realistically France should have far too much for them.
How The Bookies See It – Overall Winner
R4C and the bookies are more closely aligned, with both the model and the bookies having France, very heavy favourites. The rest, the differences are marginal. A brave and foolhardy person might take that value on Ireland, they are very under-priced, but their underlying chances are just too small to back.
How The Bookies See It – Grand Slam
Only France can complete the Grand Slam and they are overpriced to do so. A strong option remains the No Winner choice, which is very good value.
Rugby4Cast’s Top 6 Nations Tip For This Weekend
In the big game of the weekend, the algo has picked out Ireland as under-valued, and the market is agreeing as that price is shortening. Value can be found on Ireland at 3.08+.
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