Welcome to the Weekend Preview, 27 February and a rest weekend in the Six Nations. For England, that comes as a mighty relief, as the wheels have come off the chariot in a big way against Ireland. Scotland survived a mighty scare by coming back against a slightly improved Wales, and France dispatched Italy, not without a fight.
So this weekend, we have a bit of a pause, and our attention can head south of the border, where the Super Rugby championship is getting underway.
What Happened in Week 3 of the Six Nations?
England v Ireland
England were overpriced favourites coming into this match. After a chastening defeat against Scotland, they were looking to get their tournament back on track, while Ireland were rebuilding after a beating in the opening match against France and an incredibly close victory against Italy. The bookies had England as heavy favourites and everyone was writing Ireland off. In this match, we identified plenty of value on Ireland, as the model considered they had around a 40% chance of victory and so were very underpriced.
It is important to contextualise what happened to avoid further errors of hyperbole. Ireland were excellent and England were very poor on the day, and Ireland ran out easy and deserved winners. However, it does not suggest that Ireland are back, or that England are heading to the doldrums and Borthwick should lose his job. It isn’t the sexiest take, but Ireland were never as bad as people were suggesting and England were not that good. After the humbling, England are right to be disappointed, but it is not the end of the world. Likewise, it was unwise to write off Ireland so quickly, and they were never as much of underdogs as people were saying pre-game.
Having said that, it was a great result for Ireland and Andy Farrell, and it will give them lots of confidence not only in this series, but moving forward. For England, that is two bad games in a row, and defeats in matches they were favourites to win pre-game. Is something going on in camp? Players did not look interested at times, and tackling was as optional as it is in the U14Cs. England will need to beat Italy well, and then shock France in the final game to restore some pride in this year’s Six Nations campaign.
Wales v Scotland
Wales shocked everyone including their own fans by racing into a lead and looking almost competent. By any measure this was a much improved performance from Wales. However, in what was a bit of slug fest with lots of attacking phases, Wales eventually ran out of steam as Scotland came back strong and won which included some typical Finn Russell brilliance. Scotland have done well to bounce back from an opening defeat to Italy, but in all honesty, this was a match they should be winning and winning well.
France v Italy
This was a classic match of underdog who has been improving recently, plays well but ultimately comes up short as expected. France were just too strong and although Italy really did put un an exceptional fight. France were able to ride it out and win comfortably in the end, with two late tries to put further gloss on the scoreline. Italy can take heart from their performance, but that is two close defeats in a row and they now face England. Could a shock be on the cards?
Who’s Going to Win Now & How Has It Changed?
The Standings
BEFORE WEEK 3
AFTER WEEK 3
The impact of last weekend’s results on the overall picture is that England, naturally, have dropped out of all contention for the championship. France have solidified their grip at the top and now have an 84% chance of winning the tournament. It would require some serious shocks in the final two fixtures for France not to walk away with the trophy.
Ireland’s odds have picked up slightly on the back of their win at Twickenham, improving to 14% from 6%.
How The Bookies See It – Six Nations Overall Winner
As expected, the bookies have France as huge favourites, as does R4C. There is a slight misalignment, as the bookies have France a little shorter than they should be, and they are also not factoring in Ireland as a realistic option for victory.
Ireland are at home to Wales and Scotland, so should be confident of picking up two victories. France have two harder fixtures remaining: away to Scotland and at home to England. So if they slip up in one of those matches, it will probably come down to bonus points — and France do have the edge there.
In all likelihood, France would have to lose both of these matches for Ireland to win. It would not be unheard of, so that Ireland price of 26 is a long shot but contains plenty of value.
How The Bookies See It – Grand Slam
Only France can complete the Grand Slam and they are overpriced to do so. A strong option STILL remains the No Winner choice, which is very good value, even with only two rounds to go.
SUPER RUGBY 2026
Super Rugby has started and we are heading into Round 3 this weekend. Last year the Crusaders shocked the Chiefs in the final, winning in Waikato as the Chiefs lost back-to-back grand finals. Gutting.
This year, again, the Chiefs should be there or thereabouts, and we have them as favourites. The Hurricanes are in second, and unusually, after two rounds the reigning champions are already down as fifth favourites with only an 8% winning chance, quite possibly due to the fact that the Brumbies put 50 points on them in Canterbury.
The Brumbies look like the best challengers from Australia and have started on fire, also putting 50 past a weak Force team. The Reds, Tahs and Highlanders are filling up the mid-table, with Moana Pasifika, the Fijian Drua and the Force fighting it out at the lower end of the table.
We will have plenty more coverage of Super Rugby throughout the season, with some more in-depth analysis, so stay tuned.
The big game this weekend is the repeat of kast year’s final as the Chiefs will look to get some revenge on the Crusaders who are fresh from shipping 50 points at home. Could be a cricket score.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip For This Weekend
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