Get a month free trial of our Betting Analysis Tools and discover how to beat the bookies at the Six Nations! 
Get a month free trial of our Betting Analysis Tools and discover how to beat the bookies at the Six Nations! 
Just what is going on here?
Hello! Welcome – so you’re interested in our Kelly Betting Analysis services, or want to find out more about how it works. Well, you’ve come to the right place.
In short, in case you haven’t got any idea what’s going on (we’ve all been there …) here’s a quick rundown:
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a bet relative to your total betting pot. It’s widely used in betting and investing because it helps to maximize returns over time while minimizing the risk 
of ruin. The Kelly Criterion calculates the percentage of your pot to stake on a particular bet based on the probability of success and the odds offered.
The Kelly Criterion is a way to decide how much of your betting pot to wager on each match. It ensures you’re betting proportionally to the perceived value of the opportunity, allowing you to grow your pot over time while reducing the risk of losing it all.
This means you should bet 40% of your pot, which is £40.
Our algorithm combines league-specific data and a version of the Kelly Criterion to make tailored recommendations. The percentage you see in each match recommendation is the optimal stake size for that bet, based on:
For example:
You can see exactly how this looks below with the value bets first being identified, and then the specific Kelly % recommendations.
By following these recommendations and the Kelly Criterion, you can take a smarter, calculated approach to betting, optimising your potential returns while managing your risk effectively.
Below shows a blow by blow account of the stats of our recommendations on a week by week basis. You can see:
You can see that the Algorithm is often recommending a lot of bets each week, and that on average you are laying down around 50% of your pot a week, with this sometimes increasing to nearly your entire pot over a week.
DON'T PANIC! The Algorithm is betting perfectly according to its own advice, which most will not be able to do (although if you are on the website regularly it is possible). And there is also a large universe of matches to be betting on. None of the bets are any better or worse than any of the others, and the same theory applies to all of them. If you follow the advice, and bet on the mispricings identified then you should end up in profit - although clearly this cannot be guaranteed.
So it doesn't matter if you bet on 1 recommendation a week or 50 recommendations a week, the same logic applies. It's just that if you only bet on 1 a week, it may take a little longer for the law of averages to fall in your favour!
The website is updated daily, each morning. It takes a little time for the latest information to percolate around the web, but usually by 10AM GMT everything is up to date for that day. So checking the website at around 11AM each day and placing the recommended bets identified would be the optimum strategy if you are trying to cover everything.
However if you don't have the time to do that, then checking a couple of times a week - but probably especially on a Thursday or Friday ahead of the weekend matches - would be perfectly fine. You might not catch every single bet, but you'll very likely cover enough of them to end up profitable.
Below shows an example of what the Kelly analysis looks like for a couple of upcoming football matches. This is performed over hundreds of matches globally every week. 
When to check?
We generally check the website on Thursday evening. By this stage most of the weekend matches will have been priced by the bookies and most of the tips will be up. We generally place bets on the matches on Thursday evenings if available, but there may be one or two missing that we need to recheck on Friday or Saturday.
However, the more often you check, the more likely you will find better prices, so it’s really up to you how often you check.
What to do?
We check the betting area, specifically using the ‘Show Recommendations’ button in the table. This filter shows all the value bets that have specific Kelly percentage recommendations that exist right now, so it’s easy to see what matches to look at.
We also have Oddschecker (or any other price comparison website) open in another tab to check where the best price is as the odds can - and indeed will! - change so the identified opportunities may not exist if and when you look. We scrape relatively regularly, but it depends on how up to date our sources are. This is where the “Value Thresholds” should be used and you should look for odds over the values suggested for each team.
Try not to worry!
It can feel very irritating when you ‘miss’ a bet and lose out on some potential profits. But try not to think too much about this and end up chasing other bets. In the long run, it won’t matter too much and in some cases you may actually miss out betting on matches that lose! So it will all come out in the wash. You aren’t required to wager every time, so try and stay calm and emotionless about the money you are putting down.
Why don't you just keep quiet and do this yourself?
We do use these to bet ourselves, and quite successfully. However, we see no reason we can't also sell these tips to others as well!
Also, some of our accounts are beginning to be capped on their activity. We're unsure at this stage whether it is because we are successful, or if it is just a blanket policy across certain leagues, but either way, the opportunities are limited doing this solo.
Do you guarantee these tips / advice / that I will make money?
No, obviously not. Ultimately, this can be thought of a little like investing in financial markets under the advice of an experienced investor. We have a strategy and take 'advice' from the Algorithm, which we think gives us an edge over the rest of the market. Indeed, at the moment, this appears to be true.
However, this may not continue, and we can place no guarantees on future profits. Similar to financial advice ("the value of your investment may go down as well as up") - and despite being a predictions site! - we don't actually know what will happen in the future. We think it will continue, and see no reason why our strategy will stop working, but we just can't guarantee that for sure.
Please gamble responsibly. If you are doing this to make a quick profit, or looking for guaranteed winners, this is probably not the thing for you. Don't gamble what you are not prepared to lose, and don't come crying to us if your bet doesn't come off - we cannot guarantee any returns. After all, this is sport - and that's why we love it!
I’ve seen a few of the predictions and tips, and they look really dodgy. What’s up with that?
This is a good question. And we always say, if you disagree with the prediction and/or the tip - then don't bet!
The Algorithm looks at a wide variety of things before a match in order to determine the likely outcome, but it doesn't take into account everything, and it's entirely possible that it may be wrong. If you think the prediction is out, and therefore the tip, you shouldn’t bet.
Always use your intuition on top of the recommendations to decide your course of action. Humans and machines working and thinking together very often produce better results than either operating alone!
Anything else?
That’s probably all for now, if you’ve any other questions - drop us a message and we’ll get back to you as soon as we can. Good luck!
Join our Telegram Groups where recommendations are sent automatically when they are spotted by the system.
Email using the link above to request access.
See below for all the sports and products we provide our betting tips for
FOOTBALL
BASEBALL
LEARN MORE
Our basic analysis spots value around the world
Our premium analysis uses the Kelly to make specific recommendations.
Premium Subscribers can request the output of the Algorithm to play around with the data themselves and test out their own strategies!
Subscribe and get in touch to set this up
Feel free to email in with any comments or suggestions.
Please gamble responsibly. If you are doing this to make a quick profit, or looking for guaranteed winners, this is not the thing for you. Don't gamble what you are not prepared to lose, and don't come crying to us if your bet doesn't come off - we cannot guarantee any returns. After all, this is sport - and that's why we love it!
For our full legal disclaimer see here.
TRUSTED BY
Contact us at hello@sports4cast.com
©2024 Copyright Sports4Cast Ltd, all rights reserved
Sports4Cast Ltd is a registered company of company number 12342596
