Kelly Betting

Kelly Betting

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a bet relative to your total betting pot. It’s widely used in betting and investing because it helps to maximize returns 📈 over time while minimizing the risk 📉 of ruin. The Kelly Criterion calculates the percentage of your pot to stake on a particular bet based on the probability of success and the odds offered.

🤓 How Does It Work?

⚖️ An Example

• Your betting pot is £100.
• The bookmaker offers odds of 3.0 (equivalent to a 2 – to – 1 return).
• You estimate a 60% chance of the bet winning.

This means you should bet 40% of your pot, which is £40. However, a straight up Kelly strategy is known to be very aggressive and therefore we reduce the size of the bet – this “fractional Kelly” approach sacrifices a little long-term profit potential for much steadier, lower-risk performance.

The size of the ‘fractional Kelly’ has been optimised by league, using back-tested results to find the fraction that delivers the best long-term growth without excessive drawdowns. More stable leagues use larger fractions, while volatile ones use smaller.

🔥 How We Use It In Recommendations

Our algorithm combines this league-specific data and a version of the Kelly Criterion to make tailored recommendations. The percentage you see in each match recommendation is the optimal stake size for that bet, based on:

• The odds offered by the bookmaker;
• Our calculated probability of the outcome occurring.

For example:

• If the recommendation says “Bet 2%,” and your pot is £100, you should bet £2.
• If it says “Bet 5%,” and your pot is £500, you should bet £25.

🔤 Gradings

Each bet identified is then assigned a Grade (A, B or C) — a quick way to show its strength based on value, confidence, and model edge.

Grading	Explanation
🔥 A: Strong Recommendations	High-confidence bets backed by strong model value, a clear edge in a profitable league.
⚡️ B: Good Opportunities	Solid bets that meet value criteria but with slightly lower confidence or edge.
🎲 C: Worth a Look	Smaller-edge bets that still show value but may be higher variance or early in market formation.

💡 How to Use Them

• A-Grade bets are the “core” selections – the kind you’d typically prioritise or scale higher.
• B-Grade bets can complement A’s or diversify across leagues and markets.
• C-Grade bets are optional – ideal for tracking, testing or waiting for further confirmation (e.g., shortening odds, late team news).

Grades are calculated automatically based on a combination of factors including:

• model-predicted value (expected edge over the market);
• bet size suggested by fractional Kelly;
• volatility of the league (higher volatility → smaller fraction).

In short, Grades give you a quick read on conviction, letting you focus your bankroll on the strongest opportunities while staying disciplined across different leagues.

You can see exactly how this looks below with the value bets first being identified, gradings and finally the specific Kelly % recommendations. 🔥

💹 Market Movements

You can also see the market movement in here. This shows how the odds have changed from opening to now. This gives you an assessment of how other punters and the markets view the match. It is generally thought that markets that are shortening (i.e reducing in price, dropping odds) are more profitable than lengthening, or drifting markets – as shortening odds often indicate growing confidence or money behind that side.

If you really want to get deeper into market movements, it’s worth paying attention to when the money arrives. Early odds can move sharply on low liquidity, which sometimes exaggerates small signals. As kick-off approaches, however, the markets usually become more liquid and efficient – meaning the movement you see is driven by a larger, more confident pool of bettors. That’s why we display both the complete movement since opening and the last 24 hours – to help you distinguish early noise from genuine late market sentiment.

😇 Best Practice / How to Use

The website is updated every hour to keep the analysis aligned to the latest market odds, so you should always be able to see the latest prices and recommendations on the website.

However if you don’t have the time to check the website every hour(!), then checking a couple of times a week – but probably especially on a Thursday or Friday ahead of the weekend matches – would be perfectly fine. You might not catch every single bet, but you’ll very likely cover enough of them to end up profitable. You can also sign up to our Telegram channel that will send you notifications whenever new bets are identified.

Below shows the last 1,000 football recommendations made by the Algorithm.