Welcome to the Weekend Preview 8 May. After last weekend’s superb European action with some brilliant semi-finals, it’s back to the domestic grind as we enter the final straight of the season. Bath were outgunned by Bordeaux but can gain momentum as they look to go back-to-back in the league. Leinster overcame a tough Toulon side and will be looking to kick on in the URC as the race for playoff places heats up. We preview all of the action, as well as checking in on the Women’s Six Nations and Super Rugby.
The Prem Weekend Preview
Standings & Chances
Northampton top the table as we go into the last four weeks of the season before the playoffs. They are four points clear of Bath, who are comfortable in second. Leicester, in turn, are looking good for third, while Exeter and Bristol are battling it out for the final playoff spot. Saracens are six points further back and need results to go their way if they are to sneak into fourth. The rest are already looking towards next season.
The model now has Northampton as favourites to take the title, moving ahead of Bath for the first time. They have a 40% chance, but it remains incredibly tight, with Bath just three percentage points back on 37%. Those two are the clear front-runners, as Leicester have a 13% chance, while the other playoff contenders have only minimal hopes. Of those chasing teams, the model has Bristol overtaking Exeter to sneak into fourth.
Weekend Predictions
This weekend is a great weekend of close matchups in The Prem, which isn’t always the case. A Friday night lower-table contest kicks us off between Gloucester and Sale which should be incredibly tight with Sale having a slight edge. Leicester and Northampton then face off in the game of the round, Leicester having a slight advantage. Bristol v Saracens is a key match in the battle for fourth and should be an absolute cracker on Saturday afternoon. The model is leaning Bristol, but if Saracens want to get to the playoffs this is a must-win for them.
On Sunday, Harlequins and Newcastle fight to see who is the worst team in The Prem and then Exeter host Bath in a brilliant Sunday afternoon game. Bath will be looking to bounce back from their European Cup disappointment whilst Exeter are gunning for the playoffs. This should be a good watch.
The Prem Top Tip
Top tip in The Prem this weekend is Bristol at home against Saracens. We give Bristol a 71% chance, whilst the bookies make Saracens favourites. Accordingly, there is value in the market, and there is value on Bristol at 1.98+, which is freely available.
URC Weekend Preview
Standings & Chances
The Stormers have gone to the top of the table with just two rounds left to play, but it is very tight at the top. Five points separate the Stormers and Munster in fifth place, with Glasgow, Lions, and Leinster in between. Cardiff and Bulls are two points further back and Ulster are in the last playoff spot in eighth place with a three-point cushion.
Curiously, it is the Bulls, currently down in seventh, who are favourites to take the title according to the model with a 23% chance, so it is pretty tight, with just a 1-in-4 chance for the favourite. Leinster are just behind with 21%, followed by Glasgow and Lions. Realistically, the winner is going to come from one of those four. With eight wins from the last 10, the Bulls are coming to the boil at the right time. With two easy matches coming up to finish the regular season, against Zebre and Benetton, both at home, a home quarter-final beckons. Then last year’s runners-up will be a tough match for anyone in the semi-final, whereas a team like Leinster has to face the Lions this weekend, which could potentially disrupt their push for a home quarter-final. It is all rather tight, and a home quarter-final will be crucial, as well as fighting for the highest ranking possible, which will secure a home semi-final.
Weekend Predictions
Ulster host the Stormers on Friday night in a very close match. Ulster are in eighth and battling to hang onto a playoff spot. Connacht, who are their closest challengers, host Munster in an all-Irish affair which should be a great battle, with Connacht having a slight edge. Elsewhere, Glasgow host Cardiff, Leinster take on the Lions, and the Dragons host Edinburgh.
Women’s Six Nations
Standings & Chances
England and France are leading the way, equal on 14 points. They meet in Paris in the final game of the Championship so if both sides get through this weekend it should be a belter next weekend.
Despite it being tight up to this point, and England having to win away in the final match if they potentially want to win the tournament, England’s superiority in the Women’s game is such that they still have an 83% chance of success compared to the French’s 10%.
Weekend Predictions
England should cruise past Italy, whilst France have more of a job to do away against Scotland. They are heavy favourites, but it will not be a complete walkover. Ireland then host Wales and are favourites to move into third place in the table.
Super Rugby Weekend Preview
Standings & Chances
The Canes are top, two points clear of the Blues, having played one game more. The Chiefs are two points further back, also having played one game less than the Blues. The Crusaders complete an all-Kiwi top four, with the Reds and Brumbies from Australia completing the playoff spots. They have a bit of a gap to the Tahs who lost at home to the Force last weekend in a very disappointing result for their season.
The Canes have more than a 50% chance of winning the title from the Chiefs. It is clearly going to be between these two, the only possible challenger being the Blues, but they have a small 9% chance of victory. Still, one in ten, it could happen.
Last Weekend’s Results
Super Rugby Weekend Predictions
There are several close games this weekend. The Crusaders host the Blues needing a victory to boost their playoff chances. This one could go either way, although Crusaders have a slight advantage. The Chiefs travel to the Reds, the Reds with inconsistent form this season, but will be looking to build on a strong home victory against the Brumbies last weekend.
Super Rugby Overall Winner
Great value to be had on the Canes as they are heavily mispriced in the market. We give them a 51% chance of success compared to the just 35% in the market. Look for odds of 2.4+.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast
