WORLD CUP 2026: KNOCKOUT ROUNDS TAKING SHAPE
Welcome to the Football4Cast World Cup 2026 Weekend Update. We are coming to the end of the group stages in what has been a brilliant and fascinating World Cup to date. Even though the new head to head tiebreaker rules have robbed the final group games a little of their jeopardy and lustre, we are heading into an expanded knockout stage with some fascinating fixtures and players who are really hitting the heights. So even though Scotland are on their way home, the party definitely isn’t over.
Group Standings
At the time of writing, 6 of the 12 groups have been finalised. In Group A Mexico top the group with three wins from three. In a bit of a surprise South Africa finished second and South Korea are in third with three points, which looks like a 58% chance of going through, as it stands in third place. In Group B Switzerland topped the group beating Canada in the final game, who slipped into second. Bosnia are in third with 4 points and a 100% chance of going through, with Qatar going home. In Group C Brazil top the group on goal difference from Morocco with Scotland in third on three points but with an inferior goal difference and will no doubt be heading home bar a miracle. Haiti are on their plane home.
In Group D the USA top the group despite a defeat to Turkey, who crash out at the group stage in a big shock. We had Turkey as possible group winners, but a disappointing tournament ended after only two games as they lost to Australia and Paraguay. Australia finish in second and Paraguay in third with 4 points but should be safe to go through. In Group E Germany top the group from Ivory Coast, who have impressed. Ecuador also look like they will sneak through in third place following a victory against Germany in the final group game. Ecuador, a dark horse, have conceded twice and scored just twice in three games, emphasising that their elite defence will probably not be enough. Curacao are out.
In Group F Netherlands go through top with Japan in second. Sweden are in third and likely to go through with 4 points. Tunisia are heading home with zero points. Group G is wide open heading into the final group game with Egypt, Iran and Belgium and even New Zealand with a chance of qualifying.
Group H is similar but Spain are top and likely to finish there, facing Uruguay who are in trouble with just two points before facing Spain. Cape Verde could pull off a real shock and qualify with a win against Saudi Arabia. In Group I France and Norway face off for top spot whilst Senegal need a big win against Iraq to go through.
In Group J Argentina are top with Messi doing Messi things, and Austria are well set with a winner takes all match against Algeria. In Group K Colombia are looking good with 6 points and facing Portugal, who are back to form, to see who wins the group. Neither side will want to finish second as that puts them on course to play Spain. Congo need a good win to get through in third place.
Finally in Group L England are set to finish top if they beat Panama, with Croatia and Ghana playing to see who finishes second. If Croatia win, Ghana should be okay to qualify in third.
Updated Outright Chances
Bookies Odds
In the market it appears that France are overvalued as it stands, with the bookies giving them a 20.9% chance implied in their odds prices whereas the model gives them just 13.6%, so one to stay clear of. Spain are similarly overvalued, with the bookies giving them a 16.5% chance against the model’s 10.8%. England complete the top three favourites who are all overpriced, at 14.3% with the bookmakers against 9.5% with the model. Argentina are the real undervalued option, with the model making them favourites at a 16.3% chance of victory whilst the bookmakers have them at just 13.7%. Look for value above 7.2 as 8.00 is available. The rest are all overpriced as well until you get down to the USA, Morocco and Mexico for a real outsiders bet, but there is not much in it.
How’s the Knockout Round Shaping Up?
Qualifiers confirmed:
Knockout Round Predictions:
The knockout draw is most easily split into four quadrants based on its structure. The top-left quadrant is very competitive, featuring France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Morocco. France have looked excellent and possess an array of attacking talent that is the envy of the world. They look very strong but have a tricky route to the final. As predicted before the tournament, they have an easy Round of 32 match before facing Germany in the Round of 16, and then most likely Morocco or the Netherlands in the quarter-finals before meeting Spain in the semi-finals. That is a very tough route, and while they will be favourites for each match, they cannot afford an off day at any stage.
The biggest match in the Round of 32 will be the Netherlands vs. Morocco, which is incredibly close to call. Hosts Canada have been rewarded with a Round of 32 tie against South Africa and should progress, but are then likely to see their tournament ended by either the Netherlands or Morocco.
On the other side of the draw, in the top-right quadrant, are the other favourites, Spain, who are likely to meet France in the semi-finals. However, that is by no means certain, as they will face several tough matches along the way. They begin against Austria, which will be no pushover, before taking on the second-placed finisher from the group containing Portugal and Colombia, which should be a very interesting match.
Interestingly, the USA are also in this quadrant and should beat Bosnia in the Round of 32. They will then face the winner of Group G, either Egypt or Belgium, neither of whom has impressed. As a result, they have a great chance of reaching the quarter-finals, which would be a fantastic achievement at their home World Cup.
On the other side of the draw, one quadrant is headlined by Brazil and England, who are, at first glance, on course to meet in the quarter-finals. However, Brazil will first have to navigate a tough Japan side in the Round of 32, which will be no picnic, before potentially facing either Ivory Coast or Norway in the Round of 16. A Brazil vs. Norway clash could be a cracker, although Ivory Coast have also been impressive.
England will face a third-placed team if they beat Panama, which should be achievable, although it is by no means certain, as many third-placed teams have shown they are difficult to beat. Senegal would be one opponent to watch out for. Then, in the Round of 16, England will probably meet Mexico, who should progress from their tie against another third-placed team. Mexico, playing at home, will be a very tough test.
As things stand, the model has England facing Brazil in the quarter-finals, with England having a 57% chance according to the model.
They will then meet the team that emerges from the bottom-right quadrant. As things stand, the standout team there is Argentina, who have an excellent route to the semi-finals. They begin against Cape Verde, whose fairytale story is likely to come to an abrupt end. Argentina would then face either Australia or the winner of Egypt vs. Belgium, neither of whom has looked particularly threatening.
After that, they should meet the winner from the group containing Colombia and Portugal. While Colombia have looked impressive, Argentina will be strong favourites to progress. This sets up the possibility of a mouth-watering Argentina vs. England semi-final.
The model has Argentina reaching the final, but the final itself is too close to call, with a 50–50 prediction between France and Argentina. Whatever happens, the knockout stage promises to be spectacular, with plenty of brilliant matches.
Make sure you head to https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/world-cup-football-predictions/ where you can play around with all the permutations as the tournament progresses, seeing all of the possible options as you can easily choose who comes where in each group and how that impacts the knockout stages and the potential chances of victory for each team. It is a really powerful little tool and by far the best wall chart out there.
