WORLD CUP 2026 END OF ROUND 1 REVIEW
Welcome to the Football4Cast World Cup 2026 End of Round 1 Review. After the first round of games in the group stages we take a look at those teams who have boosted their chances, those who have dipped and see if there is any big shake up in the knockout round draw as it is this that affects a teams chances of overall victory most.
Group Standings
Group A is shaping up nicely for Mexico, who lead after their 2-0 win over South Africa, with Korea Republic in second after beating Czech Republic 2-1, leaving both the Czechs and South Africa pointless and already under significant pressure to accumulate enough to stay in the third place reckoning.
Group B is remarkably open, with all four sides on just a single point after Switzerland were held 1-1 by Qatar and Canada drew 1-1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina, meaning every team goes into the second round on level terms and with everything still very much to play for.
Group C has Scotland top after their 1-0 win over Haiti, though the model still projects them as most likely to finish third given the quality of Brazil and Morocco in the group. Brazil and Morocco both sit on a point each after their 1-1 draw, with Haiti in real trouble.
Group D is already looking fairly settled, with the USA top after their 4-1 demolition of Paraguay and Australia second following their 2-0 win over Turkey. Turkey and Paraguay in danger of an early exit.
Group E sees Germany top after their 7-1 thrashing of Curacao, with Ivory Coast second after beating Ecuador. Ecuador as a dark horse will have to get a result against Germany to be sure of qualifying, as three points might not be enough.
Group F is intriguing, with Sweden top despite sitting third in the projected finishing order, having hammered Tunisia 5-1. Netherlands are on a single point after their 2-2 draw with Japan, who also have a point, leaving Tunisia most likely to finish bottom.
Group G is wide open after every game ended in a draw, with NZ, Belgium, Iran and Egypt all on a point each. The model projects Belgium to top the group, Egypt second, Iran third and New Zealand fourth, though it will be tight.
Group H: Spain’s shock 0-0 draw with Cape Verde leaves everyone on a point as Uruguay and Saudi Arabia drew as well. The model projects Spain to top the group and Uruguay second, with Saudi Arabia third and Cape Verde fourth, though given how the opening round played out that feels far from certain.
Group I sees France top after their comfortable 3-1 win over Senegal, with Norway second after their impressive 4-1 thrashing of Iraq. Senegal sit third but pointless and will be keen to get off the mark in round two, whilst Iraq are bottom and already facing a very difficult path to the knockouts.
Group J is the most clear cut picture after one round, with Argentina top after their dominant 3-0 win over Algeria and Austria second after beating Jordan 3-1, leaving both Algeria and Jordan scrapping for a third placed spot.
Group K has Colombia top after their 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, with Portugal second on a single point after their disappointing 1-1 draw with DR Congo. Uzbekistan are bottom, but Portugal will be particularly concerned that their opening performance was far below the standard expected of a side with genuine tournament ambitions.
Group L sees England top after their emphatic 4-2 thrashing of Croatia and Ghana second after beating Panama 1-0. Croatia sit third but pointless and already in serious trouble, whilst Panama are likely to finish bottom.
Team Chances PRIOR TO TOURNAMENT
Team Chances AFTER ROUND 1 OF GROUP GAMES
After the first round of group games, there have been some interesting changes in the chances of tournament victory.
Argentina are the standout movers, jumping from 6% to 11% overall after a thoroughly convincing 3-0 dismantling of Algeria, with their Round of 32 qualification probability moving to 100% and their semi final chances improving meaningfully. England also tick upwards from 10% to 13% after a really impressive 4-2 victory over Croatia, a result that also goes a long way to explaining why Croatia are the most dramatic fallers in the table, dropping from 9% to just 3% overall and leaving their tournament in serious jeopardy. France nudge from 11% to 14% after a comfortable 3-1 win over Senegal and continue to look like the team to beat.
Spain are actually one of the more intriguing stories of the round, in that despite being held to a somewhat embarrassing 0-0 draw by Cape Verde, their overall chances have actually increased from 11% to 16%, which reflects the fluid nature of how the knockout draw is shaping up. The model is factoring in that Spain may now face a more favourable route through the rounds, with Portugal, who failed to impress in drawing 1-1 with DR Congo, potentially lining up as a Round of 16 opponent. And even though they are now underdogs if they were to face France in the semi final, their overall chance is higher than France as France have a tougher route to the semi final.
Brazil also stuttered, drawing 1-1 with Morocco, which will have raised a few eyebrows given the pre-tournament expectations. Germany, by contrast, announced themselves emphatically with a 7-1 thrashing of Curacao, though the quality of the opposition rather limits how much one should read into that.
Bookies Odds
In terms of market value, the favourites are largely overpriced and there is limited opportunity there. Portugal look particularly expensive given their unconvincing opening draw with DR Congo, and we would be steering clear. The more interesting value propositions lie slightly further down the table. Germany are currently offering some appeal, with our model giving them a 9.1% chance of overall victory against the bookies’ implied probability of 6.7%, and the Netherlands present a similar case at 8% against 5.6% in the market. If you are feeling adventurous and want a genuine longshot, Belgium are also worth a look, having been surprisingly underpriced by the market given what the model makes of their chances. None of these represent a screaming bet, but if you are looking to get involved in the outright market, those three are possible options.
How’s the Knockout Round Shaping Up?
Fascinating stuff, as pre-tournament predictions have already been scrambled after just one round of fixtures. The big talking point is Portugal, who are on course to finish second in Group K, which would place them in Spain’s quadrant of the draw and set up a likely Round of 16 clash between the two Iberian giants. Morocco meanwhile have a tough Last 32 match against the Netherlands but would be favourites to progress and then enjoy a relatively kind run to the quarters before running into France, who still have a very tough route to the final despite their comfortable opening win.
England’s draw has also suddenly opened up considerably. Brazil were the big challenge looming in the quarters but they will not scare England anywhere near as much after that first round performance, and it is arguably Mexico in the Round of 32, playing in front of their own crowd, that represents the bigger banana skin. That atmosphere was magnificent and it would not be a match to take lightly despite England’s impressive form.
Overall though, you would have to say Argentina have the most favourable route of any of the genuine contenders, with Uruguay, Australia and Colombia the likely opponents standing between them and the semi finals. Messi back to back is very much on the cards, and more than ever before.
Make sure you head to https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/world-cup-football-predictions/ where you can play around with all the permutations as the tournament progresses, seeing all of the possible options as you can easily choose who comes where in each group and how that impacts the knockout stages and the potential chances of victory for each team. It is a really powerful little tool and by far the best wall chart out there.
