Welcome to the Weekend Preview 5 June. It’s an action packed weekend as we have the URC semi finals, the final round of The Prem and the playoffs start in Super Rugby. So without further ado, we’ll get into it, previewing all of the action and look to see what should happen and whether there is any value out there.
URC Semi-Finals Preview
Glasgow blew past Connacht to make the semi finals after finishing the season top of the table. Their reward is a semi final in Edinburgh against the Bulls. The Bulls finished the regular season in fourth but have come into some serious form, having won 9 out of the last 10 in the URC and 5 out of the last 6 away matches. The Bulls thrashed Munster 45-14 last weekend and we picked the Bulls to be second favourites to win the trophy as far back as a couple of months ago. This match promises to be a real belter and it could go either way, although the Bulls have a very slight edge. This is definitely one to watch.
In the other semi final it looks to be a lot easier to pick the winner. Leinster, who got beaten comfortably in the end in the European Cup Final, should have enough to make up for it a little by at least getting to the final, as they are heavy favourites against the Stormers. Leinster bounced back by thrashing the Lions whilst the Stormers dispatched Cardiff. The Stormers finished in third but we have Leinster as heavy favourites for this one with an 84% chance of success.
In terms of the betting market, the Leinster game is fairly accurately priced with Leinster also heavy favourites with the bookmakers, so this is one to miss out on. However, the Bulls are underpriced against Glasgow as the bookmakers have Glasgow as favourites, in contrast to our model. Look out for odds over 2.60, with 2.63 currently available.
The Prem Final Round Preview
We head into the final round of action with Northampton having the top spot locked in. Bath have been in second and comfortable for most of the season but one win in four in the Prem has seen the gap reduced considerably and they are now only 2 points clear of Leicester in third. Exeter are in fourth and facing a battle against a resurgent Saracens side who have a chance to knock Exeter out of the playoffs and claim that fourth spot themselves. They face off in Exeter in the most interesting game of the weekend.
The big match to watch out for this weekend is the aforementioned clash as Saracens head to Exeter with the winners claiming a playoff spot. This is one which could go either way but Exeter are slight favourites, having beaten Leicester last weekend away from home and Bath at home in their last three. An away loss to Harlequins is a blemish which sandwiches those two great wins. Saracens meanwhile are coming into this crunch match having won five on the bounce including a home win against Leicester, although the other wins against Sale, Bristol, Gloucester and Harlequins were to be expected. It should be a real cracker and a tight call.
The other match to stay tuned to is Bath at home to Leicester. Bath are looking to hang on to the all important second spot and secure a home semi final, whilst Leicester have a chance to overtake them. Bath have one win in four in the Prem with losses to Bristol, Exeter and Northampton and a solitary win against basement club Newcastle. Leicester meanwhile have won 3 and lost 2 in their last 5 in the Prem, losing to Exeter last time out and also to Saracens recently, with wins against Sale, Northampton and Newcastle making for a real mixed bag. We have Bath edging this one with a 72% chance of winning but the margin suggests it will be a close game that could go down to the wire. Definitely one to watch.
Both the big games are correctly priced by the bookmakers so this is definitely a round to sit back and enjoy rather than getting involved in. Keep checking the page though as odds get updated closer to the match, as Exeter are slightly underpriced but not enough to come in over the threshold required as yet. One to watch.
Super Rugby Playoff Preview
It is quarter final time in Super Rugby as the season comes to its conclusion and we enter the playoffs. In a surprise to no one, the league was dominated by the New Zealand teams, with the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Crusaders and the Blues occupying the top four spots, with the Reds and Brumbies completing the quarter final lineup. In addition to the relative strength of the teams at the top of the pile, home advantage is a massive factor in Super Rugby and thus the quarter finals are a bit of a non starter really. It has been a very long time since an Australian team went to New Zealand and won a playoff game and it does not look like being any different this weekend. Both the Hurricanes and Chiefs are 90% favourites to dispatch the Brumbies and Reds respectively, as they have been the best teams this year by a wide margin. The Canes are unbeaten at home in their last ten whilst the Brumbies have won just 4 of their last 10 home or away. The Chiefs are slightly more fallible at home, winning 8 of their last 10, whilst the Reds have won 5 of their last 10 home or away. In both cases, fully expect New Zealand victories.
Meanwhile the only match which might produce a good battle sees the Crusaders host the Blues. The Crusaders won the last time they played in Canterbury 36-20 just three rounds ago, which is more or less what we would expect to happen again. The Blues have lost their last three whilst the Crusaders have won 9 of their last 10 at home, and it would be quite an upset if the Blues got up for this one and reached the semi finals.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast
