Welcome to the Weekend Preview 24 April. We have another round of domestic action before the semi-finals of the European Cup next weekend. We preview all of the action across the Northern Hemisphere and we also take a closer look at Super Rugby as it also enters into the final straight with four matches to go. We also round up the action in the Women’s Six Nations so read on for your full guide to the weekend’s action.
The Prem Weekend Preview
Last Weekend Results
Last weekend in the Prem there were a number of one-sided matches. Bristol thrashed Gloucester, Leicester trounced Newcastle, Bath put Harlequins to the sword, but the real thrashing was handed out by Saracens as they beat Sale 85-19. In the only close game of the round, Northampton showed their impressive title credentials as they beat Exeter away 35-28, heating up the race for the final playoff place, as it opens the door for Bristol and Saracens.
Standings & Chances
Whilst Northampton lead the table, it is Bath who lead the way in our model with a 41% chance of taking the title. In all likelihood, both Bath and Northampton should get to the final where it should be a really close encounter a la the European Cup quarter final. Of real interest is the race for the final playoff place. Leicester should have third wrapped up whilst Exeter, Bristol and Saracens battle it out for the final spot. Exeter have the upper hand but both Bristol and Saracens will have been buoyed by victories last weekend.
The Prem Weekend Predictions
After a host of one-sided matches last weekend, this time around there promises to be some really great matchups. However, that does not start on Friday night. Bristol head up to Newcastle and should comfortably take the points which they need for their battle for the playoffs.
Sale visit Harlequins on Saturday in desperate need of a response following the dismal showing against Saracens last weekend. It was a really shocking performance which has raised questions about everyone working at the club. This weekend it will be very important to give an improved showing, and Harlequins is a good fixture to give it a crack, as they look decidedly average themselves. Saracens host Leicester in a really good matchup which could go either way. Saracens will be looking to keep their momentum going and Leicester will want to build for the playoffs. This should be a really good match.
Other games might be good matches, this one certainly will be. A repeat of the European Cup quarter-final, a trial run of the Prem Final, Northampton host Bath at Franklin’s Gardens. Northampton will be slight favourites according to the model, principally due to home advantage, but it will be a great game. Although they are top of the table and will have a home semi-final, it is a bit of a must win for Northampton. If they do not win this weekend, then it will be a real psychological blow ahead of that final in June. They lost at Bath, and need to win at home, to show themselves and the rugby world that they are good enough and can beat Bath. It is developing into an exceptional rivalry, and we are here for it. Pollock and Russell might grab the headlines, but these are brilliant teams going hammer and tongs for domestic supremacy. Sit back and enjoy.
On Sunday, Gloucester host Exeter in what should be another good game, although Exeter are favourites to get the points which they need.
In the big game, Northampton appear to be overvalued by the bookmakers, so there is value on Bath at 3.21 and above.
The URC Weekend Preview Round 16 of 18
Last Weekend’s Results
Standings & Chances
Glasgow suffered a walloping by the Lions in Johannesburg but still sit top of the table. Leinster managed an impressive win away to Ulster to close the gap. Stormers also lost in a surprise against Connacht and Munster got a good away win against Bennetton to sit in 6th although it is very close with just 4 points separating 4th to 9th.
The model has Leinster as overall winners but it is close with the Bulls, who sit in eighth place in the league table. Glasgow’s chances were dented by last weekend’s loss but they are still tied with the Bulls on 22% chance of victory, although they appear to be running out of steam following the European Cup quarter-final defeat and the big loss at Lions. The Stormers, who sit in second at the moment, have a very high chance of making the playoffs but a very slim chance of overall success, based on the likely path to the final. Connacht are a surprise to be fifth favourites despite sitting ninth in the table, ahead of Munster, Ulster and Cardiff, despite those other teams having larger chances of getting into the playoffs. Quirks of the draw.
URC Weekend Predictions
A great slate of action in the URC this weekend as every match should in theory be close. Some matches to watch out for as teams battle to make the playoffs are Stormers hosting Glasgow, Lions hosting Connacht, and Munster hosting Ulster.
Women’s 6 Nations Weekend Preview
Weekend Predictions
England thrashed Scotland last weekend and have an impressive win probability of 98% when they host Wales on Saturday. Wales have a 0% chance of winning. Good luck. Anything can happen in sport! (not). England are miles ahead of the rest, which is nice for them but a blow for the competition. France beat Wales by 31 points last weekend, exactly as predicted by the model, whilst Ireland won by 24 more than expected against Italy.
The other games should be a lot more interesting as Italy v Scotland should be a great battle, and France hosting Ireland promises to be a good match, although France are favourites. Ireland have outperformed their predicted results by a total of 46 points, and even in defeat against England in the opening round they lost by 22 points less than predicted. Meanwhile, France are going exactly as expected.
Last Weekend’s Results
Overall Tournament Chances
Super Rugby
Standings & Last Weekend’s Results
The Chiefs overcame the Hurricanes in a really tight game last weekend to draw level on points at the top of the table. That was a Grade A opportunity identified by the model, as the Hurricanes were overvalued away at the Chiefs. Come the Final, it might well be a very different matter. The Blues are doing well to stay in the hunt as well and are just two points back. The Brumbies had a shock loss at home to the Drua which was disappointing as they were looking the likely Australian challenger. The Reds had a bye so will be looking to overhaul them in the near future. Meanwhile the Crusaders were shocked by the Force, which puts the skids on their campaign somewhat.
Super Rugby Weekend Predictions
The Crusaders will look to get back to winning ways at home to the Tahs, while the Brumbies will not have a chance to put last weekend right as they face the Canes away in Wellington. The Blues should see off the Reds, and the Highlanders and Chiefs should get comfortable wins over Moana and the Drua respectively.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast
