We said last week that the stakes couldn’t be higher for Man City, and it has proven as such, both quantitatively in our Algorithm, but also qualitatively in how it played out on the pitch. Liverpool’s 2 – 0 win over City was a dominant display from the current Premier League leaders over the current Premier League Champions. They took the lead just after 10 minutes into the match, by which point they could already have been two or three ahead. After the first half City had generated just 0.07xG and they looked completely at sea. They improved in the second half – taking their xG to 0.78 – but they couldn’t stop Liverpool.
The Algorithm’s Predictions
The Algorithm has run its simulations of the Premier League based on the latest results and Manchester City have found themselves slipping yet further behind in the title race. After their fourth defeat in a row in the Premier League – and sixth without a win in all tournaments – they are now calculated to have just a 9% chance of taking their fifth Premier League in a row, down from around 20% last week. Liverpool have seen their chances rise to around 80% from 69%, with Arsenal making up the bulk of the remaining percentages.
Simply put, 8 times in 10 Liverpool are likely to lift the Premier League title, with Arsenal and City taking it once each.
For more on the English Premier League, all matches and season forecasts see the dedicated page on Football4Cast below.
The Algorithm v The Bookmakers
Compared to the bookmakers the Algorithm is quite bullish. An average of the major bookmakers shows that they give Liverpool a 64% of winning the title compared to our 80%. They could be yet to fully adjust to Liverpool’s victory, so we will keep an eye on this over the next few days to see if it moves any further, but also, it’s a long season, and City are … well … City. They’ve come from a long way back before to take the title so it’s understandable that people aren’t writing them off fully yet.
However, our Algorithm has been proven wise against the bookmakers over the course of the season (and last), pricing matches more accurately and making profitable recommendations based on its predictions. The below shows the current success so far this year.
Based on this, perhaps the 80% looks like it might be a more accurate reflection of Liverpool’s chances as things currently stand. Indeed Opta are even more bullish, putting Liverpool’s chances at a lofty 85%. Based on these percentages, and the current odds available at 1.63, Liverpool look like they might be worth a bet. If you’d like more information on how this works, and to see other such opportunities in matches and leagues around the world, check out our betting analysis below.
Next Week – Liverpool and City
Liverpool visit Newcastle on Wednesday and then Everton on Saturday in two matches that could prove tricky, especially given the rest period and travel time. They will want all 6 points from these matches to keep their foot on the gas, and the pressure on City. At the moment it looks like both the Algorithm and the bookies see things similarly and there are no opportunities for value out there at the moment. Liverpool are favoured in both, but Newcastle in particular may cause an upset.
Manchester City on the other hand will host Nottingham Forest and then visit Crystal Palace. They are heavily favoured in both, and you’d back them to right the wrongs of recent matches and return to winning ways. 6 points from these two matches is a minimum, and they will hope that Newcastle or Everton can do them a favour.
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