WORLD CUP 2026 PREVIEW PART 1 – The Route To the Final
Welcome to the Football4Cast World Cup 2026 Preview. The World Cup is just around the corner and the best time every four years is nearly upon us, promising to be epic. It is a wide open tournament this year and in FIFA’s infinite wisdom it is now the largest World Cup ever, with 48 teams. It promises to be a bit of a slog as there are 8 matches to win for the victorious side, a little under a fifth of a Premier League season, but more teams means more matches (and more money for FIFA) so we have just got to accept the hand we have been dealt, which is not all bad.
In this edition of the Preview, we run the rule over the favourites and with our fancy new knockout stage planner, have a look at who will actually win the thing. Brazil anybody? Anyway, grab a Bud, Modelo or …. (Canadian beer anybody?)* and sit back and enjoy as we dive into the action and hope to really set fire to that World Cup spirit which not even Infantino’s chicanery can dampen completely. It is here, and it is going to be amazing.
*Don’t drink if you’re not supposed to, obviously
The Favourites – Bookies’ Overview
Spain are the favourites with the bookmakers following their Euro 2024 victory, boasting a team stocked with young talent and led by the wizardry of Lamine Yamal, who has unfortunately suffered an injury a couple of weeks ago which has Spain sweating on his fitness. The bookmakers have Spain at a quite remarkable 18.2% chance of victory, which is very high. France are the second favourites with a 17.9% chance according to the bookmakers. Runners up last time in Qatar and winners in 2018, with a squad that is absolutely stacked on paper, it is no surprise to see them ranked so highly.
Then England are ranked third favourites, which strikes terror into every Englishman after being so used to talking up their team only to see them flounder, usually on penalties, in World Cups. Southgate’s stodgy but relatively successful reign is over and the question now is whether Tommy Tuchel can take them all the way.
Then there are two South American challengers in fourth and fifth respectively in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil should be particularly fascinating under Carlo Ancelotti but might be distracted by the circus surrounding the selection of Neymar, who has not done much over the past year and whose fitness is questionable, although talent across the squad is not in short supply. Meanwhile the holders Argentina have Messi still knocking around as they look to defend their crown, and with a strong squad around him his stardust should give them a healthy chance of going all the way. Portugal round out the top six and the main contenders as per the bookmakers, with statuesque Cristiano up top and a midfield the envy of the world. Can they do it to honour Diogo Jota’s memory, with the squad appearing united around the sentiment of bringing the trophy back to Portugal in his memory.
Those are the favourites as per the bookmakers and we will dive into the contenders in more detail below, checking out their routes to the final which, as we will see, has such an impact on the chances of overall success for each side. It is not enough, as so many podcasts and previews do, to simply talk about players, strengths and weaknesses in isolation. In tournament competition it is the route to the final which tends to make all the difference. Remember England in 2018? Read on as we get stuck into it all in more detail.
The Favourites – Previews
Spain
Overview
Spain have not won a World Cup knockout match since their triumph in 2010. Perennial underachievers through the 80s, 90s and 00s, that all changed as tiki taka weaved its magic and Iniesta and company crowned a glorious generation. Since then it has been a tough watch at the World Cup, knocked out in the groups or in the last 16 on penalties, as they have once again failed to live up to their reputation. However, following their Euro 2024 success where they were comfortably the best team in the competition, they go into the World Cup with renewed confidence.
What does their squad look like? For the first time ever, it does not include any players from Real Madrid. Three excellent goalkeepers in Unai Simón, David Raya and Joan Garcia are battling to be number one, whilst a defence led by Pau Cubarsí of Barcelona and Marc Pubill of Atletico Madrid sits behind a midfield stocked with talent, including Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, the Arsenal duo of Zubimendi and Merino, and the Barcelona trio of Pedri, Gavi and Dani Olmo, making for a complete embarrassment of riches. With this World Cup set to test squad depth like never before, that is a particular strength. Up front they are without Alvaro Morata for the first time in what seems like a century, but they have plenty of fast, tricky attackers led by Lamine Yamal, possibly the best player in the world, who is carrying a slight injury. A lot will depend on whether he can get back to full fitness. Nico Williams of Bilbao is a real talent as well. It is worth noting as well, that Spain are the number 1 international side in the world right now as per S4C’s rankings, so should go into this tournament filled with confidence.
Route to the Final
Spain have got a decent draw and that is what makes it so tempting to have them towards the top of the favourites. In the Round of 32 and Last 16 they are due to face a pair of second placed finishers, first from Group J which suggests Austria, then the winner of Colombia versus Croatia. That is quite promising, but in better news, the way the World Cup has been drawn means there are usually two top teams in each of the four sectors of the draw which produce the four semi finalists. The other likely group winner they will have to overcome in the quarter final is Belgium, which could be tricky but Spain would be favourites for that one.
The big issue for Spain is that in the semi final they are on a collision course with France, who are second favourites. Our model suggests Spain have a 51% chance in that match, which is another way of saying there is no way of telling them apart. This effectively 50/50 battle to make the final is what drives down their percentage chances of overall success considerably in the model, and is what makes their 18.2% success chance offered by the bookmakers far too high. In reality it should be more like 9.7%, which still ranks amongst the highest of any challenger but is a lot closer than the bookmakers suggest.
Overall Spain have a great chance of reaching the semi final, where some really tight matches that are too close to call will determine who becomes champion, but they go into the tournament with a very strong chance and being the number 1 side in the world.
France
Overview
France come into this World Cup following two brilliant showings at the last two World Cups, winning in 2018 and losing the final on penalties in 2022. Spearheaded by Kylian Mbappé, who caused a little controversy in leaving PSG two years ago to join Real Madrid, only to see his old team win the Champions League back to back whilst he has largely been left ruing Madrid’s downfall. However, his quality for France cannot be questioned, and his hat trick in the last World Cup Final was a sight to behold. France retain an excellent defence this time around with Koundé, Konaté, Upamecano and Theo Hernandez forming a very strong defensive unit. Tchouaméni and Rabiot lay the platform for one of the most talented players in the world, Rayan Cherki, to strut his stuff, and he really could be one of the stars of this tournament. Either side of Mbappé, France have riches to spare with Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola and Marcus Thuram giving them plenty of options.
They are in a tricky group though, with dark horses Norway led by Erling Haaland, a potent Senegal and a difficult Iraq side. They have a strong 62% chance of topping the group, but it will not be straightforward.
Route to the Final
Beyond that, and what might give someone pause for thought, is that France have a very tough route to the final. Their Round of 32 game should be fairly comfortable against Cape Verde or another third placed finisher, but then in the Last 16 they should come up against Germany, a tough nut to crack, followed by a Netherlands side that many are picking to surprise. They will certainly have to be at their best to get through all of that, and then most likely they will face Spain in the semi final in what is undoubtedly the toughest draw of any of the top sides going into the tournament. This difficult path makes us reluctant to back them at their pre tournament odds, which look high given the obstacles ahead. They are, however, probably the strongest team at the tournament on paper, and in each individual match the odds should be in their favour. The trouble is that putting together win after win against such tough opponents is a big ask even for a team of this quality.
England
Overview
England, ah, England. What are they? A perennial underachiever? A team that has actually overachieved in recent history, starting with that semi final run in 2018? Two Euro Championship Final losses back to back, they are a team who is getting into the habit of going deep into tournaments, even if they have not managed to get over the line yet. Could this be their year after recent heartbreak? To their advantage is that their domestic league is by far and away the strongest in the world due to such an imbalance of financial forces that exists in the world game. Accordingly every player in the squad plays at the highest level, as the handful who play outside the Premier League do so at a very high level. Harry Kane has just had his best season at Bayern Munich and Jude Bellingham has been so so in an average Real Madrid team but is so often the driving force behind this England side. His talent is not in doubt, but will he even start? All eyes will be on new manager Thomas Tuchel, who has been handed the keys with the promise of victory, a big change in strategy after the Southgate years which, whilst they restored pride in the national side, were ultimately underwhelming.
Key players will be Harry Kane, who must be on form and managed correctly during the tournament if England are to go far. No world class backup to Kane exists in the squad so if anything happens to him it is hard to see how England will cope. With supreme talents like Foden and Palmer left at home, it will be down to Morgan Rogers, Barcelona bound Anthony Gordon and Bukayo Saka to provide the ammunition. A decent attack but perhaps not quite on a level with other top nations. In midfield the pairing of Anderson and Rice looks very strong, with Rice in particular being slightly underrated as he does all the dirty work, is supremely athletic and has been the motor behind Arsenal’s Premier League success this season. The defence remains a bit of a worry with Stones, Guehi and Konsa being the likely options alongside full backs Reece James and O’Reilly. Overall it is a strong team, one used to the rigours of football at the highest level, but it will be fascinating to see if that translates into success at this World Cup. Third favourites with the bookmakers, they certainly have a good chance.
They have a relatively easy group and have a 63% chance of topping it, with their first game against Croatia likely to be key whilst Panama and Ghana should be beaten comfortably.
Route to the Final
England’s route to the final looks fascinating. A very winnable game in the Last 32 against a third placed finisher awaits if they top the group, possibly DR Congo. Then it gets really spicy, with a Last 16 clash against Mexico in what would be the toughest of environments to get a result, though England should be slight favourites even with that disadvantage. Then the exotic nature of their tournament really gets going as Brazil await in the quarter finals in what promises to be an epic tie that is too close to call. If they can get through that, which the model suggests will be a real challenge, they would then most likely face Argentina in the semi final, which would be an absolute epic in itself. All in all it is a tough route and one we probably do not see them navigating all the way to the final.
Brazil
Overview
Brazil have been a pale shadow of their former selves in recent history. From 2014 where it all collapsed around them in a 7-1 drubbing by Germany, to 2018 disappointment losing to Belgium in the quarter finals, to penalty heartbreak versus Croatia in 2022, again in the quarter finals, they have failed to hit the heights of their illustrious predecessors.
This time they have gone all out to restore pride to the Selecao. Hiring Carlo Ancelotti was an act of desperation which was massively out of step with Brazil’s proud history, but if he can inspire this side to glory nobody will care, and he is a master of managing big egos to success. Perhaps the biggest ego of them all in the squad is lucky to just be on the plane. Neymar, at 33, and with a body that has been letting him down, is here for his last dance. The nation’s top scorer and a talent that has lit up the world stage so often, he slid into decline in Saudi Arabia before returning to his hometown club Santos to try and get into shape for the World Cup. It kind of worked, as he was picked ahead of compatriots such as João Pedro, who has just scored 17 goals in the Premier League, which looks a strange decision, but really Neymar just could not be left out. It will be fascinating to see what role he plays at the World Cup and whether any of the old magic remains.
Outside of the Neymar soap opera Brazil actually have a pretty strong team. Bang average in qualifying, they do not have much form to strike fear into their opponents, but perhaps their lineup will. Ancelotti has decided to go full attack with a 4-2-4 formation, built around an excellent defence anchored by two of the best centre backs in the world in Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães. A brilliant goalkeeper in Alisson should help as well. In midfield, Bruno Guimarães could absolutely shine on the world stage as one of the best central midfielders around, anchored by Casemiro and possibly Sandro if Ancelotti wants to play it a little more conservatively. Up front, hopes rest on Vinícius Júnior staying out of spats and letting his brilliant football do the talking, ably supported by Raphinha and Matheus Cunha. Talented youngster Rayan could be one to watch as well, with Estêvão unfortunately injured, whilst Endrick and Igor Thiago add real options from the bench, and the prospect of throwing Neymar on with ten minutes to go could yet prove an interesting card to play. There is simply too much talent in this squad, allied to a world class defence, for Brazil not to be considered a genuine challenger.
Route to the Final
Brazil have a tough group to start with, facing Morocco, Scotland who bring a strong side, and Haiti who may surprise a few. Accordingly they only have a 60% chance of topping the group.
However, if they do, their route to the final is quite interesting, offering a decent draw but with some real banana skins along the way. They play a second placed finisher first up in what should probably be Sweden, then fellow Nordics Norway in the Last 16, who could genuinely spring a surprise if Haaland gets going, before England await in the quarter finals as discussed above.
All of that leads to Argentina in the semi final, a potentially mouth watering South American derby. No team has it easy in this marathon tournament but Brazil’s route is not as daunting as some, and is probably the second best draw one could realistically hope for amongst the contenders. If Ancelotti can get the balance right and Vinícius Júnior hits his straps, Brazil could well be standing in the final. The model has them as marginal favourites in every knockout round and accordingly predicts them making the final, where it really does promise to be a 50/50 affair depending on who they face. Brazil could yet be the ones to watch.
Argentina
Overview
Reigning champions Argentina will go into the World Cup in a very confident mood, having walked the South American qualifying campaign, finishing top by around 10 points. Lionel Messi has hung around after moving to Inter Miami and fancies a crack at doubling down on his immortal status in Argentina by going back to back. Could they actually do it? Their side has suffered few changes, and whilst the loss of Di María will be felt, in Julián Álvarez they have a forward who is at the peak of his powers and should be even better than he was four years ago. Messi is probably not at quite the same level, and playing at Inter Miami is not a tough gig, but he should be reasonably accustomed to the conditions compared to European based players, and he remains of course capable of absolute magic and will be key once again to Argentina’s chances.
Martínez is a strong goalkeeper who delivers on the biggest stage, and in defence they have a host of strong defenders who have played together in the national side for years, among them Lisandro Martínez, Cristian Romero and the seemingly ageless Nicolás Otamendi. In midfield Argentina will be strong with Enzo Fernández and Mac Allister providing a very solid base, supported by stalwarts De Paul and Palacios alongside newcomer Nico Paz, one of the bright young things in world football. Up front it will be all about Álvarez and Messi, with a nod to Lautaro Martínez, one of the best strikers in the world who somehow cannot quite get it together for Argentina.
Overall it is a familiar side, experienced, battle hardened and knowing exactly what it takes to win, resilient enough to overcome difficulties as they showed when losing to Saudi Arabia in their first game last time around. Expect them to mount a serious challenge once again.
Route to the Final
Argentina’s route to the final is actually a pretty tough one. They should be alright in a group with Austria, Algeria and Jordan, although Austria will be a stern test and perhaps surprisingly explains why Argentina only have a 57% chance of topping their group. Manage that though and they face the second placed finisher from Group H, which is likely to be Uruguay, and that will be tough but on recent form they should get through. Then in the Last 16 they could well face host nation USA, which although Argentina are far superior, any match against the home nation is not going to be straightforward. A real cracker awaits in the quarter final however, as Argentina and Portugal are lined up to collide in what should be a good match, though no doubt we will have to sit through endless Messi versus Ronaldo debates and montages in the build up. With neither at their peak it will be fascinating to see how it unfolds. Then they will face the winners of Brazil versus England in what promises to be an epic semi final either way.
So all in all it is not the hardest route to the final but it will certainly be an emotional one, and that is perfect for Argentina who seem to feed and grow on their nation’s passionate support, which knows no bounds and cannot be matched by any other nation. It is hard to convey just how much the national side means in Argentina, where it outstrips even Brazil’s passion for the game and is simply everything to them. Definitely expect Argentina to make a serious fist of their defence of the title.
Portugal
Overview
The last of our favourites for the title is Portugal. With generally a poor record at World Cups overall, they do tend to go relatively deep into tournaments, and this year they are inspired by the memory of Diogo Jota, who tragically died prior to this season starting. A squad favourite, players, staff and fans alike have spoken of the importance of honouring his memory at this World Cup. Named as the 27th squad member, his shadow will loom over the squad and might just have the effect of making them play as a team rather than a collection of talented individuals, because talented individuals Portugal have in spades.
In Diogo Costa they have an excellent goalkeeper, world class defenders in Rúben Dias and the world’s best left back Nuno Mendes, but it is in midfield that their talent becomes truly remarkable. In Vitinha and João Neves they have the PSG midfield partnership that has dominated European football for the past two years, and any repetition of that form at the World Cup would mean opponents might not see much of the ball at all. Their ability to control games in the heat will be key, and with Bruno Fernandes in excellent form in the number ten role they will have possession and creativity in abundance. Out wide they have Rafael Leão, who is excellent, with further options in Pedro Neto, Trincão and Francisco Conceição, and Bernardo Silva available to contribute as well. The striker role is always the controversy however, as Cristiano Ronaldo at 41 is still knocking around and to be fair still knocking them in, albeit in Saudi Arabia. His backup Gonçalo Ramos does not start regularly for PSG, and it appears Ronaldo will be first choice. Criticism of him is perhaps exaggerated though, as he still has the ability to put the ball in the back of the net, retains the motivation and hunger, and importantly has the team around him to cover when he does not track back.
Route to the Final
Portugal have a very strong chance (62%) of winning their group, which contains Colombia, DR Congo and Uzbekistan. Each game should not be a walk over but they should have enough to get through as group winners.
After that in the Last 32 they should face a comfortable third placed team, possibly Panama, then in the Last 16 they will probably come up against Switzerland, who are very beatable. Then, as mentioned, Argentina await in the quarter final where Portugal will have a 43% chance of winning, which would see them exit at that stage if the model plays out. However it is extremely close and it would not be a surprise to see them get through, after which they would face Brazil or England in the semi final. In a similar situation to England, Brazil and Argentina, Portugal benefit from being on the opposite side of the draw from Spain and France, giving them a real chance of reaching the final. If they were to overcome Argentina they would still be underdogs against Brazil according to the model, with a 42% chance of winning that semi final, rising to 48% if they were to face England instead.
World Cup Wall Chart
Make sure you head to https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/world-cup-football-predictions/ where you can play around with all the permutations as the tournament progresses, seeing all of the possible options as you can easily choose who comes where in each group and how that impacts the knockout stages and the potential chances of victory for each team. It is a really powerful little tool and by far the best wall chart out there.
That’s enough for the first Preview article. Stay tuned for more preview content and opportunities we identify throughout the tournament.
