Welcome to the Weekend Preview 22 May. It’s a very special weekend in the domestic rugby calendar. We don’t have too many matches to talk about, but that’s because it’s European Finals Weekend. On Friday night we have the aperetivo of Montpellier v Ulster in the Challenge Cup Final, (the Europa League of Rugby) and then on Saturday, the big one – the Champions Cup Final between Leinster and Bordeaux. We preview both games and check out Super Rugby which keeps on going.
The European Champions Cup Final Preview
The big one. This year’s European Champions Cup Final promises to be an absolutely fantastic game of rugby and one for the neutrals to really enjoy. We have two teams who really are at the top of European rugby. Between them, there is one loss in 20 Champions Cup matches, and that is extraordinary. That one loss was last year’s semi-final when Northampton overcame Leinster as Henry Pollock inspired a fantastic Northampton performance. In the final, Northampton were rocked by injuries early doors and, despite doing well to be all square at the break, Bordeaux ultimately had too much power for them and it never really looked in much doubt.
This year, Leinster have timed their form to perfection and, despite a very average start, have got stronger and stronger as the season has progressed. They finished second in the URC regular season and top our predictive model as likely overall winners of the playoffs. Leinster have lost four finals since their last victory in 2018, and will be desperate to win. With Rieko Ioane on the wing, a serious pack including Lions aplenty, and all marshalled by Gibson-Park, they are a serious outfit. There is a sense that Ireland and, by extension, Leinster were on the wane on the international stage. However, the Six Nations showed that any talk of their demise was greatly overstated. Meanwhile, Bordeaux have been imperious in the Champions Cup. Getting past Toulon and then smashing Bath in the semi-final is seriously impressive form. They have been there and done it, and have some of the most exciting players in the world, not least Bielle-Barrey who is just exceptional. However, in the Top 14 they have not been so sparkling and sit in fifth place, 14 points off Toulouse who lead the table.
It is always fun to go back and look at the predictions and chatter before the competition started all the way back in December. Our click-baity tournament preview title was “Bordeaux have no chance of retaining their crown!” as they were only given a 6% chance of winning the whole competition. That was mainly because the model correctly predicted that their route to the final would require toppling Toulouse, who were the favourites as the competition kicked off, and as the league has shown, are the best team in France. Meanwhile, Leinster were second favourites from the outset, even as they had started slowly in the league, as they were predicted to sweep their group and have a fairly comfortable run to the final, exactly as it has played out. By the third round of group games, with Toulouse’s form being a little iffy in the group phase, the article headline was “Are Leinster Really Favourites?” as they had replaced Toulouse as the outright favourites, and Bordeaux had moved into third with an 11% chance. By the final weekend of group action, Bordeaux were up to 13% and Leinster down to 28% but still clear.
Toulouse’s poor group form saw Bordeaux get the home quarter final against them and Bordeaux were able to see them off, and suddenly Bordeaux’s chances were up to 39% before the semi final. Results since then see Bordeaux drop slightly to the 28% chance that they have today. All in all it has been fascinating to see how Bordeaux’s chances have developed over the course of the competition, and Leinster have remained consistently as the favourites since week two, despite their poor start in the URC and a general sense that they are on the decline.
Prediction
Now the final has come around, Leinster are being tipped by the model to have a clear edge, predicting a three point winning margin but giving Leinster a healthy 70% chance of success. That may be something of a surprise, as Bordeaux are considered the favourites by many. This is reflected in the odds, as there is a massive opportunity in the market. It is very rare to have such a discrepancy for a final, especially one of such magnitude. Leinster are massively underpriced, with value at 2.25 and above, and 2.85 is still out there, although those odds are coming down.
All in all, it should be an excellent match, between two great teams. Will it be decided by some Bielle-Biarrey magic of will Leinster’s brilliant pack be too much? Our prediction: Dan Sheehan to win MOTM as Leinster take the title.
The European Challenge Cup Final Preview
In the Friday night European Challenge Cup Final, Ulster take on Montpellier with the French side clear favourites. Montpellier are second in the Top 14 and having an excellent season led by Billy Vunipola at 8 and Ali Price at 9. They are in fine form, with one defeat in their last 10, and that was against Toulouse, and includes a victory against Bordeaux.
Ulster have the upper hand in the head-to-head with three victories to nil, but they were in 2013 and 2024. In the URC this year, Ulster just finished outside the playoff places in ninth, following a last day loss at home to Glasgow. If Ulster are to win, Angus Bell, a world class prop needs to have his finest game.
The bookies have got this one spot on, unlike the Champions Cup Final, with the model and the bookies matching up exactly. This means that there is no value out there so one to stay away from.
Super Rugby Weekend Preview
Standings & Chances
The Hurricanes underlined their title credentials by beating the Blues away from home last weekend rather comfortably, 47-24. The Chiefs ensured that the table remains relatively close as they beat the Highlanders at home. The Waratahs got a good win at the Drua to close the gap to the Brumbies and the Reds, as the Reds went down away at the Force, who have been getting their act together with three wins in their last four.
The Canes have increased their chances of taking the trophy from 55% to 62% with the Chiefs dropping back slightly, and everyone else out of the picture.
Weekend Predictions
The Canes should get a comfortable home win against the Highlanders, whilst the Chiefs have a tough away match at the Crusaders. A big game on Friday as the Tahs host the Brumbies and will be looking to steal into that last playoff spot at the Brumbies’ expense.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast
