Welcome to the Weekend Preview 15 May. It is the weekend before the European Cup Finals which for some strange reason are happening with several weeks still to play in the domestic calendar. A great way to shoot yourself in the foot when trying to get new people to follow and understand the season. Anyway, there were some shocks last weekend which have shaken up the picture in the Prem. Are Leicester now favourites to win it all? We also preview all of the action in the URC and Super Rugby and it’s the final weekend in the Women’s Six Nations and we have an England v France Grand Slam decider.
The Prem Weekend Preview
The Power Rankings
Last weekend, Leicester delivered a pretty powerful message. They dismantled Northampton, the Prem leaders, and beat them 41-17. With eight wins in their last 10 Prem matches, they have surged to the top of our Power Rankings. By not just winning but thrashing Northampton, they have leapfrogged them and sit in first place. Northampton have slipped all the way down to 4th as a result of that defeat. Saracens have also made a big move and gone into 3rd with an excellent away win at Bristol. Bath had their own issues and lost away at Exeter in a demoralising defeat following their semi-final loss to Bordeaux the weekend prior.
These rankings are not some arbitrary rankings, but the accumulated ELO points which are won and lost with every result, and are weighted according to the strength of opposition, home or away, and so on. Leicester are now the strongest team in the division. So, that surely means they are favourites to win the whole thing? Well, not quite.
Northampton, despite dropping down, should have enough in the tank to get a home semi-final, and that makes a massive difference. They should still finish top as well, as they face Bristol and Gloucester at home, and Harlequins away, three matches they are predicted to win. Bath have an easy home game against Newcastle, then a tricky away fixture against Bristol before finishing off the season with a home tie against Leicester, which will probably be a game to see who gets home advantage for the semi-final.
Accordingly, Leicester, if they are to win, will have to do it the hard way, either beating Bath away in the league to get a home semi-final, or losing in the league but then having to go and beat them away in the playoff semi-final. In either scenario, they have to beat Bath away, and whilst doable, it certainly dampens their chances of overall victory. Similarly, Bath have to beat Leicester twice to make the final, possibly both times home, but it is still a tough task.
This leaves Northampton with a clear run at home against the fourth placed team, which is likely to be Exeter or Saracens, although Saracens have a lot of ground to make up. It is not impossible, as Exeter have to play Harlequins away, which they should win, but then face Leicester away before finishing against Saracens at home. Similarly to Leicester, if Saracens want to get into the playoffs they have a tough job, as they should pick up two wins from Gloucester and Harlequins at home but have to beat Exeter away if they are to make it. Of course, if they do, they could have more than enough to challenge Northampton.
So all in all, it basically means every team has a bit of a tricky path requiring some pretty good wins, whilst Northampton can stroll to a home semi-final where they will face a tough opponent but at home it will be hard to look beyond them. That is why they top the chances of winning the tournament, not because they are the best team, but because statistically their route to the final is the easiest.
Weekend Predictions
Northampton are looking to bounce back from that disappointing defeat to Leicester with a home game against Bristol on Friday night, which they should win as 78% favourites. However, Bristol are still fighting to make the playoffs although it is a tough ask as they have the trickiest fixtures, playing Northampton, Bath and Sale in their last three matches.
On Saturday, Bath have a nice weekend to get back to winning form, facing Newcastle at home. Exeter face Harlequins away, desperate for a win which they need to avoid ceding ground to Saracens, who should beat Gloucester at home.
Sale host Leicester on Sunday to round off the weekend’s fixtures, and Leicester should have too much for Sale but away is always a tough game.
The Prem Market View
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URC Weekend Preview
It is the final round of regular season action this weekend as teams battle to make it into the top 8 and the playoffs that start in two weeks time.
Standings & Chances
The picture has cleared somewhat after last weekend’s games, which went pretty much as predicted. This has left Glasgow, Stormers, Leinster and the Bulls as odds on favourites to be the top 4 and secure a home quarter final. As we mentioned last week, the Bulls, who then were in 7th, are the overall favourites, as it is likely they climb further after this weekend’s fixtures. Then Leinster are hot on their heels, and it looks like it should be between these two, as Glasgow and Stormers are way down due to the difficulty of their final round matches and the likelihood of facing an away semi final.
Weekend Predictions
The games to watch out for include Munster v Lions, which will determine their final placing and their draw in the playoffs as they are only separated by two points. However, perhaps more interestingly, Ulster host Glasgow on Friday night, and Glasgow will be desperate to finish top of the table and be the number 1 seed entering into the playoffs. With the Stormers also having a tough job away to Cardiff, the path opens up for Leinster to collect their victory at home to Ospreys and top the table, which would be typical Leinster after playing catchup all season. The Bulls should also dispatch Benetton to move up if Glasgow or the Stormers slip up.
Women’s Six Nations – Grand Slam Decider
Standings & Chances
It’s a Grand Slam decider as France host England in what should be a good game. England have won their matches by fewer points than expected (last weekend they conceded 33 points to Italy, which is crazy), and France have been excellent, winning all of their games by greater points margins than expected. The gap between them is reducing, and with the match being held in France, a real shock could be on the cards. England are still 66% favourites to win, but that has come down from the high 80s before last weekend.
We say shock, because England Women are statistically miles ahead of the rest. Despite it dropping slightly, they are still 8 points clear of second place, and 18 points clear of France. England have won 5 of the last 5 against France, including twice away in the most recent meetings. It should be closer than anyone thought it would be prior to the tournament, but England should have too much and seal another Grand Slam.
Super Rugby Weekend Preview
Standings & Chances
The Blues lost to the Crusaders to knock their momentum significantly. The Chiefs beat the Reds away and the Canes thrashed Moana. This week, the Canes meet the Blues at Eden Park in the game of the round, and the Reds take on the Force needing a win to get back on to keep up their playoff hopes.
Clear water now between the Canes and everyone else, but it remains a battle between the Canes and Chiefs come final time. The top 6 are pretty much locked in, even with three rounds to play.
Weekend Predictions
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast
