For Arsenal, this week, the pressure ratchets up a notch whilst Spurs could be 6 points from safety by the end of this round’s fixtures
Weekend Preview 17 April – Arsenal Play With Fire
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview 17 April. Sunday afternoon, the big game: Man City v Arsenal. Mikel Arteta, this week, before his side’s quarter-final second leg against Sporting Lisbon, promised that Arsenal would be all fire, and they are not struggling with the pressure. A limp performance ensued to demonstrate that there is no fire left and they are very much struggling with the pressure, as everyone knows. But, and it’s a big one, they got the job done, and they are into the semi-finals of the Champions League. This weekend, the pressure ratchets up another notch. Arsenal have all season been flirting with dominating the league before falling off sharply to give their rivals a chance to get back into it. Their rivals have fumbled more than Ben Kay in the 2003 World Cup Final, and Arsenal were up to 95% chance of winning the league a couple of weeks ago. The fall off has been such, however, that City are still in with a shout. A win at home to Arsenal would cut the lead to three points with a game in hand. It promises to be fascinating. We dive into this match and more as this weekend promises to be a cracker in the Premier League.
Premier League Standings
As we said, it is getting tight at the top. However, the model still gives Arsenal an 86% chance of winning the title, which must be music to Arsenal fans’ ears, although the model is a cold, heartless machine that cannot comprehend how fragile Arsenal must be after so many near misses, and have become a team that looks like it has completely run out of steam.
Elsewhere, Champions League places have been confirmed to extend to fifth place this season. Manchester United look assured, despite last Monday’s defeat to Leeds at home, which is quite remarkable really considering how poor they have been for so much of the season. Aston Villa should also be fine for Champions League, whilst the wheels are falling off at Liverpool. Can they hang on to fifth, or will Chelsea, equally incompetent, stumble over the line into fifth? A twist is that if Aston Villa win the Europa League, then Champions League places will go as low as sixth. Can Brentford or Brighton sneak onto the top table of European football? Even Sunderland and Bournemouth are in with a shout.
At the other end of the table, it appears to be a three-way shootout between Tottenham, West Ham and Nottingham Forest for the final relegation spot. Tottenham have De Zerbi at the helm, although there was no marked difference as they were soundly beaten away at Sunderland last weekend. West Ham continued their improvement with a 4-0 win over Wolves. All of a sudden, with Cristián Romero out for the season, everything is pointing towards a team in the Championship having the best stadium in the country.
This Weekend’s Premier League Fixtures
The weekend’s games start with Brentford hosting Fulham as both sides chase European football, although Brentford could be inspired by the slim possibility of Champions League qualification. It should be tight, but Brentford might just have the edge. Newcastle host Bournemouth as Eddie Howe, under real pressure at Newcastle for the first time in his tenure, faces his former side, a team he just cannot seem to beat in numerous meetings. Rumblings on Tyneside of players looking to move away, supporters openly starting to talk about a change of manager, it is a sticky situation. They need this win desperately against a Bournemouth who are one of the harder to beat teams in the league and going for Europe.
Leeds face Wolves at 3pm on Saturday as they look to build on an excellent victory at Old Trafford on Monday evening to well and truly climb out of any relegation scrap. At 5:30pm is a crucial game as Spurs host Brighton. De Zerbi must get something from this game or Spurs could be too far gone soon. Against his former side going for Europe it promises to be a real challenge, and we have Brighton as slight favourites.
Chelsea host Manchester United on Saturday evening as United look to bounce back from a poor defeat at home to Leeds. Chelsea were also soundly beaten by Manchester City last weekend, and rumblings have started to emerge against Liam Rosenior, with Enzo Fernandez flirting hard with Real Madrid and being excluded for this game, it is not looking great for a surge into the fifth Champions League place.
The Sunday 2pm games see Forest favourites to beat Burnley to boost their survival hopes, and Aston Villa to beat Sunderland to increase their grip on a Champions League qualification spot. The Merseyside derby is also at 2pm, but such is the drama at both ends of the table, it does not even get top billing. Everton have done magnificently this season and Liverpool are in trouble. With Ekitike out for nine months and Isak nowhere near the form he showed last year, it promises to be a challenge. A draw might be the most likely outcome.
Then comes the big one as Arsenal face Man City. Arsenal are getting desperate, and Man City are finding top gear inspired by the amazingly talented Rayan Cherki. All things point to a Man City win to increase the panic in North London. The model has given Man City a very slight advantage of 41% to 31%, but the eye test suggests that a point would be a brilliant result for Arsenal.
The round’s action ends on Monday as Crystal Palace face West Ham in a match which could have great significance for West Ham depending on the result of the Spurs game.
Premier League – Weekend Betting Outlook
The majority of matches in the Premier League are fairly accurately priced, as you might expect for such a saturated market. However, it is still worthwhile to always review before placing a bet to ensure that the odds one is getting are fair and of value.
One game that stands out is Tottenham v Brighton. There is value on Brighton at 2.20 and above, with odds of 2.66 available, as the bookies are still not taking Spurs’ plight and form as seriously as they should be. In the big game this weekend, Arsenal could be a potential value bet. Could their demise be exaggerated? Are City really 56% favourites as the bookies suggest? This one is quite tricky to call as to where the value might lie. There could be odds available of 3.61 and above which would represent value on Arsenal, so keep an eye out.
Another match with a clear value edge is Monday night’s meeting between Palace and West Ham. We have Palace as 51% favourites, so look for value at 2.16 and above. There are odds of 2.41 out there which is very good value. In the Merseyside derby, both sides are slightly overpriced and so not worth getting involved.
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