“This final game caps off an excellent Autumn for South Africa, who have reasserted their dominance at the top of world rugby. Their commanding win over Ireland and consistent power performances have opened up a clear lead in the global rankings”
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 28 November. After a thrilling Autumn Nations Series, attention now shifts back to domestic rugby, with full rounds of fixtures returning across England and Europe.
Weekend Preview 28 November: Autumn Internationals Review
The Autumn Nations Series has now wrapped up — well, almost. We’ve got one last, stray fixture to close things off: Wales v South Africa this weekend, somehow taking place outside the official international window. Why this one exists is anyone’s guess, but it does at least give the Springboks a chance to end their year in style. Wales have just a 3% chance of victory, while South Africa sit at 93%, so anything other than a comfortable Springbok win would be a major shock.
This final game caps off an excellent Autumn for South Africa, who have reasserted their dominance at the top of world rugby. Their commanding win over Ireland and consistent power performances have opened up a clear lead in the global rankings — 136.7 points, comfortably ahead of New Zealand on 130.9. That six-point margin is now the biggest gap between first and second we’ve seen for several years.
Ireland hold third place on 128.3, while the big climbers this Autumn are England, up to fourth with 127.1, after a string of strong results including wins over New Zealand and Argentina. France remain close behind in fifth on 126.9, but their Autumn summed them up perfectly — flashes of brilliance mixed with inconsistency, ending with a 48–33 win over Australia that was far closer than the scoreline suggests.
Below the top five, the chasing pack has spread out slightly. Argentina (sixth, 121.4) and Scotland (seventh, 118.9) are separated by nearly two points. Australia have had a torrid autumn — four defeats from four matches — and although they remain eighth, it’s been a worrying campaign. Fiji in ninth and Italy in tenth both leave Autumn with positives, while Wales (11th) and Japan (12th) will be frustrated not to have made more progress.
For England, this has been a statement Autumn. They’ve answered a lot of questions and shown real growth, blending forward power with a sharper attacking edge. Ireland, on the other hand, will have to regroup after being comprehensively beaten by South Africa — a defeat that underlined the gap between the two teams at present. France and New Zealand remain world-class, but both look slightly off their best, while Argentina and Scotland remain in that second bracket of competitive, yet inconsistent, sides.
Elsewhere, Fiji edged Spain, Italy overcame Chile 34–19 in an entertaining match that again showed Chile’s continued rise, and Wales did well to score 26 points against New Zealand even in defeat.
As for this weekend — it’s all eyes on Wales v South Africa, the last word of the 2025 international season. Don’t expect surprises: the Springboks are likely to finish just as they’ve played all Autumn — strong, efficient, and dominant.
Domestic Rugby Returns: Gallagher Premiership and URC Update
After a thrilling Autumn Nations Series, attention now shifts back to domestic rugby, with full rounds of fixtures returning across England and Europe.
Gallagher Prem
In the Gallagher Premiership, the title race is shaping up nicely. Northampton lead the way after a strong start, closely followed by Bath, with Exeter and Saracens completing the current top four. Leicester sit fifth, while Bristol hold sixth and Sale, the early-season second favourites, have slipped to seventh after a disappointing opening run. Harlequins, Gloucester, and Newcastle round out the table — with Newcastle firmly rooted to the bottom and already facing a long season ahead.
Gallagher Prem Winners
According to our latest model, Bath remain clear favourites to lift the title with a 59% chance of success, well ahead of Northampton (13%), Leicester (10%), and Saracens (9%). Sale’s struggles have seen their odds of finishing top drop dramatically, having started the season with one of the highest projections.
This weekend’s fixtures bring several intriguing matchups. Sale host Exeter on Friday night, and we lean towards a home win with a 74% chance of success. Gloucester v Harlequins is a tight one between two bottom-half sides, almost a coin toss that could go either way. Bristol welcome Northampton in another even contest — the model gives Bristol a slight home advantage. The standout fixture is Saracens v Bath, a genuine top-of-the-table clash. Our numbers have it almost perfectly even, 51% Saracens to 49% Bath, with home advantage just tipping the balance.
Elsewhere, Leicester will be looking to maintain pressure on the top four, and Newcastle face another difficult test as they try to climb off the bottom.
The URC
Over in the United Rugby Championship, the early rounds have delivered a few surprises. Pre-season favourites Leinster were expected to dominate, but they’ve endured a rocky start — winning just two of their first five games to sit seventh in the table. Despite that, our model still gives them a 30% chance of lifting the title, reflecting their underlying strength and depth rather than their current position.
At the top, the Stormers lead the way after a perfect five-from-five start, closely followed by Munster, also unbeaten. Glasgow are third, Cardiff fourth, Ulster fifth, and the Bulls sixth.
URC Overall Winner
The title picture remains competitive. Behind Leinster’s 30%, Munster sit at 19%, the Stormers at 18%, with Bulls and Glasgow both on 12%. Despite the table suggesting a shift in balance, the projections still lean towards the Irish sides having the edge over the long haul.
This weekend’s fixtures look fairly one-sided at the top end. Leinster are expected to win comfortably away at the Dragons with a 90% chance of success, while Ulster should overcome Benetton at home. The Bulls host the Lions in Pretoria and are heavy favourites, and Cardiff are backed to beat Zebre in Parma.
The standout tie is Munster v Stormers — two unbeaten teams going head to head in what could be an early season classic. Our model narrowly favours Munster (58%), but the Stormers (40%) remain more than capable of taking the win. Elsewhere, Edinburgh are expected to beat Ospreys at home, Connacht v Sharks is almost even, and Glasgow should come away with victory at Scarlets.
In short, while the URC table suggests a shift towards South African teams and Munster, the long-term numbers still point to Leinster finding their rhythm and reasserting themselves as the team to beat.
The Betting Outlook
Looking across the markets this week, there are a few clear value opportunities — and a few traps to avoid.
Gallagher Prem Outright
In the Gallagher Premiership, Bath remain the standout season-long value. The bookmakers currently price them with a 44% chance of winning the title, but our model rates them at 59%, meaning any odds over 2.1 represent solid value — and with 2.38 available in the market, that’s a strong play. By contrast, Saracens and Northampton are significantly overvalued. The bookies have them at 25% and 20%, whereas our projections sit much lower at 9% and 13% respectively — definite ones to steer clear of.
URC Outright
Over in the United Rugby Championship, Leinster are still favourites with the bookmakers at 60%, but our model — while still backing them to win — has them at just 30%, making them poor value at current prices. The more interesting opportunities come with Munster and the Stormers. We give Munster a 19% chance compared to 13% from the bookies (value threshold 6.8, with 10.0 available), and the Stormers a 18% chance versus 14% (value threshold 7.1, with 9.0 available). Both offer healthy returns compared to their implied probabilities.
Top 14 Outright
A quick note on France’s Top 14, where we’ll take a closer look next week: Toulouse are the clear frontrunners with seven wins from ten. Our model gives them a 63% chance of taking the title versus 51% from the bookmakers — meaning odds over 2.0 are good value, with 2.25 currently on offer.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip
As for individual matches, one standout option this weekend comes in the URC — Cardiff away at Zebre. The bookies rate Cardiff at just 30%, but our model has them at 48%, creating a significant margin. Look for odds over 2.17, with 3.5 available in places. That’s our Top Pick (Grade A) value bet of the weekend.
And that wraps up this week’s Rugby4Cast preview — Bath, Munster, Stormers, Toulouse, and Cardiff the names to watch for value hunters.
As always, you can find full data, value picks, and match-by-match predictions at sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
