“England have now joined that elite group, firmly establishing themselves among the world’s best and becoming the main story of this autumn campaign.”
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 21 November. After some absolute humdingers last weekend, the spotlight turns to Ireland as they face South Africa in a real clash of the rugby giants. England take on Argentina in an exciting affair, both sides coming off great victories.
Weekend Preview 21 November: Autumn Internationals
Autumn Internationals – Week Three Recap
Last weekend produced two standout matches. England were dominant at Twickenham, defeating New Zealand 33–19 in one of their most convincing performances of the year. In Edinburgh, Scotland and Argentina delivered a thriller — Scotland raced into an early lead, but Argentina mounted a remarkable comeback to win 33–24.
Elsewhere, Ireland comfortably beat Australia to get their autumn campaign back on track, while Wales scraped past Japan 24–23 thanks to a last-minute penalty that spared them a major upset. South Africa also recorded a 32–14 victory over Italy despite playing almost the entire match with 14 men.
Autumn Internationals – Round Three
This week sees another stacked schedule:
- Wales v New Zealand
- France v Australia
- Ireland v South Africa
- Scotland v Tonga
- England v Argentina
- Italy v Chile
Three matches stand out this weekend in the Autumn Nations Series.
In Cardiff, Wales host New Zealand, and our model gives the All Blacks a 92% chance of victory. Wales have struggled throughout the series and will need a near-perfect performance to stay in touch. New Zealand were disappointing last week against England and will look to finish the campaign on a high. Expect a convincing win for the visitors.
In Paris, France face Australia, and our model heavily favours France with an 83% chance of success. France bounced back from their loss to South Africa by defeating Fiji but were not very convincing. Australia have had a difficult run, showing glimpses of improvement but lacking consistency. This one looks likely to follow the form book.
The headline match of the weekend is Ireland against South Africa in Dublin. South Africa, top of the rankings, are given a 51% chance of victory compared to Ireland’s 45%. It’s essentially a coin toss. Ireland will take confidence from their dominant display over Australia, while South Africa’s discipline will again be key after beating Italy despite being a man down for a second week running.
Elsewhere, Scotland host Tonga in what should be a comfortable win for the home side, with a 95% forecast probability. Similarly, Italy are expected to cruise past Chile, with our model giving them a 97% chance. Finally, England face Argentina at Twickenham, and although England are clear favourites at 79%, Argentina’s attacking ability means they can’t be written off completely.
The Rankings
Last weekend’s results had a noticeable impact on the global rankings. Before the Autumn Nations Series began, South Africa and New Zealand were slightly clear at the top, but both have been pulled a little closer to the pack — particularly New Zealand, who dropped significantly after their defeat to England.
The main mover is England. Before the series, there was a clear top two (South Africa and New Zealand) and a broader top four including Ireland and France. England have now joined that elite group, firmly establishing themselves among the world’s best and becoming the main story of this autumn campaign.
France have slipped slightly following mixed performances, while Argentina have strengthened their position in sixth, creating some daylight between themselves and Scotland in seventh. Australia’s decline continues after another defeat, while Fiji and Italy are both on the rise, showing steady improvement and closing the gap on the traditional top nations.
The Betting Outlook
This weekend’s betting markets look fairly accurate overall, with few major mispricings. However, one fixture stands out as a genuine opportunity: Ireland v South Africa.
Ireland appear undervalued in their big clash against the world champions. The bookmakers heavily favour South Africa, giving them around a 70% chance of victory, but our model sees it as far more even. We rate Ireland at 45%, compared to just 34% implied by the odds, while South Africa sit at 51%.
That difference suggests there is good value on Ireland — particularly if their price drifts further — in what should be a tightly contested, high-quality encounter in Dublin.
As always, you can find full data, value picks, and match-by-match predictions at sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
