Welcome to the Weekend Preview for 10 October. The Rugby Championship may have wrapped up, but the rugby calendar shows no signs of slowing. With provincial playoffs underway in New Zealand, round three of the Gallagher Prem, and major clashes across France and the URC, it’s another packed weekend of global action — and plenty of value to be found.
The Rugby Championship Recap
We don’t usually like to blow our own trumpet at Rugby4Cast, but the Rugby Championship played out almost exactly as we predicted in our tournament preview. While most pundits and bookmakers had New Zealand as favourites, given their two home fixtures against South Africa, we highlighted the real advantage — South Africa’s neutral-venue clash with Argentina instead of a trip to Buenos Aires. And though the tournament produced its share of surprises — Australia’s win in South Africa and Argentina’s historic first victory over New Zealand at home — the Springboks’ favourable draw proved decisive. They duly sealed the title in London, sweeping aside Argentina and taking the Championship on points difference.
The NZ National Provincial Championship
In New Zealand, the NPC reaches the playoff phase as the quarterfinals get underway. It’s a great little tournament — packed with local pride, regional rivalries, and, in true New Zealand fashion, plenty of off-the-cuff brilliance. The rugby is fast, the skill levels are high, and the atmosphere feels a little more human than the professional tier above. Expect bold offloads, ambitious kicks, and a few moments of pure chaos that make the competition such a joy to watch.
After 10 rounds, the top 8 and qualifiers for the quarter finals are the following:
The quarterfinals line up as:
- Otago v Waikato – Otago’s home form and momentum make them favourites, though Waikato’s playoff experience could make it closer than the numbers suggest.
- Bay of Plenty v Tasman – Bay of Plenty hold a 79% chance of success in this match compared to the bookmakers’ 69%, giving strong value at anything over 1.39, with 1.53 available.
- Hawke’s Bay v Taranaki – The tightest of the round; Hawke’s Bay are slight favourites at 62%.
- Canterbury v Counties Manukau – Canterbury are the outright favourites to win the title, with a 43% chance of overall victory. Their depth and form make them heavy favourites here.
Based on the draw, Canterbury remain favourites for the title, followed by Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, and Otago.
The Gallagher Prem – Round 3 Preview
This weekend’s fixtures:
- Sale v Newcastle – Expect Sale to cruise at home.
- Northampton v Leicester – Our model gives Leicester a 36% chance versus the bookmakers’ 29%. Anything over 3.59 is value, and 3.75 is available.
- Harlequins v Saracens – Saracens favourites, but Quins dangerous at home.
- Gloucester v Bristol – Too close to call; both sides capable of an upset.
Bath remain firm favourites for the overall title, with Sale the main challengers.
URC and Top 14 Highlights
The United Rugby Championship continues with a full slate of fixtures. Munster are heavy favourites at home to Edinburgh, while Leinster host the Sharks in Dublin. Glasgow, Ospreys, and Benetton are all tipped to win at home, and the Stormers–Scarlets clash should be one of the tighter matchups of the weekend.
Our standout URC value bets:
- Sharks away at Dragons – We give the Sharks an 82% chance versus the market’s 64%. Value above 1.40, with 1.62 available.
- Leinster away at Bulls – We rate Leinster’s chances at 42%, compared to the bookmakers’ 26%. Strong value above 2.71, with 4.0 out there.
- Ospreys away at Stormers – The long-shot pick. We give them 20% compared to the market’s 16%. Value above 5.0, and 7.0 available.
In France’s Top 14, round six brings some key fixtures:
- Clermont v Toulon – Clermont are the pick here, rated 72% against the bookmakers’ 66%.
- Montauban v Castres – A potential upset. We give Montauban a 49% chance, versus the market’s 37%. Anything above 2.26 is good value, with 2.75 available.
As always, you can find full data, value picks, and match-by-match predictions at sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
