Welcome to the Weekend Preview for 3 October. The Rugby Championship reaches its conclusion and its a full schedule of domestic rugby action. All in all, it is a packed weekend for rugby! Check out our weekend preview to stay on top of it all.
The Rugby Championship – The Final Round
The Rugby Championship reaches its climax with South Africa in pole position. Last weekend the Springboks overwhelmed Argentina 67–30, while New Zealand edged Australia 33–24 in a bruising contest in Auckland.
As it stands, South Africa top the table with 15 points, one ahead of the All Blacks on 14. The permutations are simple: if South Africa beat Argentina in London with a bonus point, they retain the title. Should they win without the bonus, New Zealand would need a bonus point win in Perth — plus a 61-point swing — to steal the crown. For New Zealand, the only realistic route is an Argentine upset.
This weekend
In Auckland, New Zealand head to Australia and are heavy favourites, with our model giving them an 71% chance of victory against 26% for the Wallabies. In London, South Africa enjoy similar dominance, rated at an 81% chance of beating Argentina, who stand at 16%. The expectation is for both heavyweights to record wins.
The Rugby Championship Outright Chances
In the final weekend, New Zealand must travel to Perth, where Australia’s prospects of victory rise to 25%, while South Africa head to London to face Argentina, who improve only slightly to 18%. That difference is decisive: South Africa are more likely to prevail in London than New Zealand are in Perth, making the Springboks the favourites for the Championship with a 61% chance of success compared to 33% for the All Blacks. However, with the impovement in Argentina and Australia, do not be suprised if there are some more unexpected twists and turns in the Championship.
Our model gives the Springboks a 72% chance of securing the Championship, with New Zealand down at just 14%. Australia and Argentina, despite notable improvements this season, are out of contention. South Africa’s fate is in their own hands.
New Zealand remain strong favourites despite travelling, rated a 71% chance of victory by our model against market odds of 66%. That gives some limited value with a threshold of 1.50 and odds of 1.57 available. Australia sit at 26%, higher than the bookmakers’ 38%, suggesting little value on the Wallabies. The All Blacks remain the smart play here.
The Springboks are overwhelming favourites to close out the title. Our model rates them at 81%, a shade below the bookmakers’ 85%, so not much value on South Africa at short odds (1.23 available). Argentina, though, offer a long-shot opportunity: we give them a 16% chance versus the bookmakers’ 20%. With value threshold of 6.77 and odds of 5.5 available, there’s only marginal appeal, but for those looking at an upset, the Pumas might tempt.
The Gallagher Prem
The weekend’s fixtures start with Bath at home to Sale on Friday night. Bath are rated 75% favourites, though Sale’s 22% chance is slightly higher than the market, offering value above 5.98 (1.62 available). Elsewhere, Exeter are expected to beat Newcastle comfortably, Leicester are strong at home to Harlequins, and Saracens are tipped to edge Bristol — though our numbers give the Bears a 26% chance compared to the bookmakers’ 22%, making them a marginal value play above 4.97.
On Sunday, Gloucester v Northampton looks like the standout opportunity. Gloucester are made 71% favourites by our model, compared to the bookmakers’ 51%. That discrepancy makes anything above 1.84 strong value on Gloucester.
Final Word
The Rugby Championship looks set for a Springbok coronation, but bonus points and the All Blacks’ pride could still bring late drama. In England, Bath and Sale headline the Gallagher Prem’s new season, while in the URC, Leinster once again loom large — but the betting markets may have mispriced some key match-ups.
Plenty to watch, and a few sharp plays to make it a profitable weekend.
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below for all rugby tournaments https://sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast/
