Well then, here we are. Another Six Nations. Where does the time go? The same place as my hair I suppose.
First up this weekend is France v Wales. Friday night lights in Paris. It should be quite the spectacle – the French do the night matches well these days – but what can we expect from the rugby?
Below shows the predictions from the Rugby4Cast’s Algorithm for the opening weekend of the Six Nations.
Broadly speaking, the predictions model works off a proprietary rankings system (which you can see on the various events pages), but it also looks at other things like rest periods, home advantage and scoring patterns in historical games – both in head to head matches and overall – to work out an expected score for each team based on location and current ranking.
More accurately speaking, this means that each predicted score is actually a metric to describe the relative historical strength of the two teams, based on their performances over previous years. However, we think it is more fun to think of them as predictions. At the very least, it certainly serves to provoke the trolls lurking online. You know who you are … !
You can check out the rest predictions and the betting analysis below.
Welsh Recent Run
It looks like it could be a tough night at the office for Wales, with the Algorithm giving them just a 7% chance of a win, and likely to lose by 14 points. They have had well documented woes of late, losing 12 in a row since their last win against Georgia in Rugby World Cup 2023.
This is their worst ever run of results, and sadly for the Welsh it doesn’t look likely to improve this weekend. France are in fine form at the moment, having completed a(nother) win over New Zealand in the Autumn, and with Dupont and Ntmack returning for Les Bleues, they are arguably underrated by the model.
France v Wales
France have won 7 of their last 10 against Wales, and are 6 from their last 6. Wales last beat France in Paris in Six Nations 2019. With Penaud scoring 6 tries (SIX) in his last match in the Top 14, it’s tough to make the case for a Welsh win on Friday night, hence the Algorithm’s assessment of just a 7% chance of a Welsh win.
What do the bookies say?
The bookies are even harsher on Wales. An average of the major bookies out there gives them just a 6% chance of winning – along with a 98% chance of a French win (welcome to the bookies overround everyone!).
What this means is that this match – from a betting perspective – is not really worth a look. The best odds being offered on a French win are 1.05, which is a fairly poor return for your money, and whilst the Welsh odds of 26 at PaddyPower are technically ‘value’ – it is quite a high risk bet, and not one I would be placing the mortgage on!
If you are really adventurous then the draw odds of 83 available on the Betfair Exchange also look good, but again I wouldn’t be going big there.
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