Welcome to the Weekend Preview 19 June. The football World Cup is in full swing and taking up most of the sporting world’s attention, but this weekend, Rugby is firmly top of the agenda. We have not one, not two, but three finals to enjoy! We preview all of the action.
The Prem Final Preview – Northampton Saints v Exeter
So we have got to the final of the Prem season and it is to be contested between Northampton and Exeter. Both sides had exceptional semi final performances, Northampton dealt with a very dangerous Leicester side winning 45-31 in a brilliant performance. George Furbank was in the tries and he will play his last game for Northampton before moving on to Harlequins. Northampton have led the Prem all year and it will be a real crowning achievement if they were to go on to win the final. We have Northampton as marginal favourites but it is tight. Northampton have a 58% chance with a predicted score of 24-19 showing how tight the algo thinks it is going to be. Northampton have a well drilled side and have been the best side all year. 2024 winners, they dropped off last year finishing 8th and failing to make the playoffs. They lost out in the European Cup final last year as well, and so will be keen to crown this group of players as champions once again. Northampton have plenty of firepower, but all eyes will be on Henry Pollock, to see if he can get a Prem trophy to match his growing reputation and ego.
Exeter meanwhile are coming into the final as surprise finalists. They won away at Bath last weekend in a brilliant performance, requiring some heroic last minute goal line defending as they upset the favourites for the title 27-26. There were excellent performances all round but the Australian duo of Hooper and Ikitau are probably their standout players. Exeter have won 4 out of their last five matches beating Bath (twice), Leicester and Saracens so come into this final in serious form. Their form saw them get into the playoffs winning a three way fight between Bristol and Saracens, and even pipping Leicester into third which got them the match at Bath. The way that they are playing, their confidence should see them as real contenders in this match, and should not be written off. It should be a really good match but Northampton should probably have a bit too much for them.
In terms of match odds, there isn’t any value in this match to bet on. The bookies have Northampton as favourites at 67% which is slightly over our 62%, so look out for possible value on Exeter. Look for value at 3.22+
URC Final Preview – Leinster v Bulls
After a two week break, on Friday night we have the URC final between two teams we have picked from quite a way out as being the two strongest teams in the competition, in spite of what the league table might have said. Just three weeks out from the end of the regular season, Bulls were in 7th place and it seemed a bold call to have them as second favourites. However, here we are and by ranking points they are actually the top ranked side in the URC, maybe surprisingly over Leinster.
It’s a repeat of last year’s final where Leinster claimed a dominant 32-7 victory in their first triumph since 2021. The Bulls meanwhile have lost two other finals without ever having won the thing. Leinster are stacked with talent and have returned to form after many were writing off this crop of Irish stars. Players like Hugo Keenan, James Lowe (who plays his final game for Leinster) and to a lesser extent, forward stalwarts Van der Flier, James Ryan, Tadhg Furlong, Joe McCarthy, have been questioned for Ireland over the past year, but they are still class and it is a ridiculous number of quality internationals in a club team. Add in Reiko Ioane and you have a half-decent side.
The Bulls have Handre Pollard and Willie Le Roux (still somehow going strong) to call on for experience, and they have a plethora of tough South African forwards to bring the fight to Leinster. What could swing the affair in Leinster’s favour is that it is Croke Park, so Leinster as the home team have a big advantage. Why they don’t play it at a neutral ground is a bit much for a final. Same in Super Rugby.
Leinster overcame the Stormers in the semi final in a predicted comfortable victory, whilst the Bulls went to Glasgow and won 22-21, and whilst also predicted, it shows that they can travel and win away from home in a big match.
The home advantage is what sways it however, and we have Leinster as 71% favourites giving the Bulls just a 28% chance of victory. The Bulls will draw confidence from an 8 match winning streak including 6 wins out of their last 7 away from home. Leinster meanwhile have won 9 from 10 at home, that only loss being to Bordeaux.
Similar to the Prem final, and not surprisingly, this is correctly priced as well more or less. The bookies actually give Leinster a slightly smaller chance of winning at 63% than the model, so there could be value in the market to back Leinster closer to kick off. Look for odds of 1.70+
Super Rugby Final Preview – Hurricanes v Chiefs
Early Saturday morning we have the Super Rugby final that was on the cards since before a ball was kicked this season. The Hurricanes v Chiefs. The Hurricanes have been the best side by some way this year, and have led the season models all year long. However, the Chiefs are coming into form at the right time and it should be an epic final. The Chiefs, of course, led by D-Mac have been excellent for many years and have amazingly lost the last 3 finals. Can they make it four? Meanwhile the Canes have not been to a final since 2018 when they beat the Lions of SA in their only Super Rugby victory to date.
In the semi finals the Hurricanes blew away the Blues 57-21 underlining their impressive dominance. The Chiefs had a great game against the Crusaders who were more than in the fight until the last 15 minutes when the Chiefs managed to ease away and win by a very comfortable looking 49-12. That shows just how clear these two are of the other teams in the championship.
The model has the Canes as fairly heavy favourites with a 71% chance, and it is hard to look beyond them, especially as they will be in front of a sold out home crowd. However, the Chiefs certainly do have more experience in playing in finals, and that might count for something.
The Hurricanes might be slightly underpriced for this one. The market gives them a 64% chance against our 68%. Still not enough to make it value in the betting market though. Look out if those odds go 1.69+.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Not so many matches, but what there are will be excellent fare. Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities @ Rugby4Cast
