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Betting Analysis

Just what is going on here?

Hello! Welcome – so you’re interested in the Betting Analysis service, or want to find out more about how it works. Well, you’ve come to the right place.

Quick Summary

In short, in case you haven’t got any idea what’s going on (we’ve all been there …) here’s a quick rundown:

We’ve built a machine learning algorithm that predicts the outcome of matches;
We compare these predictions to the bookmakers odds;
We look for mispricings.

You should never bet on who you ‘think’ is going to win the match – instead you should look for matches in which you think the bookmakers have got the odds wrong, or ‘mispriced’ the match. These are opportunities.

Mispricing is where the bookmaker has set their odds too high, and is therefore paying out too much relative to likelihood of the outcome – these represent ‘good’ or ‘value’ bets.

These mispricings are highlighted green (or yellow) and the results of this are hosted on our betting page below, which is updated daily (usually), so you can check this page whenever you want to see what opportunities exist on upcoming matches.

We do this in a range of sports – see below – and you can subscribe to them either individually or as a whole with a group discount. You also get 30 days to try, so have a look and see what you think. Any questions, feel free to get in touch.

Football

Rugby

Baseball

Mispricings and Value

As said above, we are looking for mispricings or mistakes at the bookies that represent opportunities for punters. We do this by calculating a ‘value threshold’ for each match based on the predictions we generate. Odds above this threshold represent ‘good’ or ‘value’ bets, and odds under it do not.

🔥 The Value Threshold (VT) is the threshold at which the model suggests your should consider betting – i.e the price above which the risk becomes worthwhile. We also show the best odds we can find on the market and colour code them depending on whether they meet that threshold.

As you can see on the pages we publish a range of recommendations for each match based on the odds we have found and whether they are above or below the value threshold for each match. For further ease of use, each match and the best odds found are colour coded to easily identify which matches have good or bad odds.

GREEN

A green bet is a bet that has been identified as value, and the side in question has a reasonable chance of winning. These are recommended matches to consider betting on.

YELLOW

A yellow bet is a bet that has technically been identified as value, but the side in question has a very small chance of winning.

The reason for this is that occasionally value bets are identified by the Algorithm, but the side in question has a tiny chance of winning, with the bookies pricing them with even less chance. This is still a value bet, technically, but the chances of it coming off are so long that you would need to cover a lot of them in order to end up up – something not everyone may wish to do, hence these bets are tagged as yellow.

Depending on your risk appetite you may or may not wish to bet on these matches.

RED

A red bet is a bet that has no value. The bookies have this match priced similarly to The Algorithm and therefore there is no value in betting on it. Avoid these.

Below shows a couple of the bet analysis for upcoming football matches, to give you an idea of what it looks like and how it works.

It shows a comparison of our model’s take on each match (F4C %), compared to an average of the bookmakers odds converted to %.

It also identifies the best odds available for each team, at what bookmaker, and if those odds are value – i.e a good bet. These are highlighted green.

So - What exactly do I do?

When to check?

We generally check the website on Thursday evening. By this stage most of the matches will have been priced by the bookies and most of the tips will be up. We generally place bets on the matches on Thursday evenings if available, but there may be one or two missing that we need to recheck on Friday or Saturday.

However, the more often you check, the more likely you will find better prices, so it’s really up to you how often you check.

What to do?

We check the betting area, specifically using the ‘Show Value Bets’ button in the table. This filter shows all the value bets that exist right now, so it’s easy to see what matches to look at.

We also have Oddschecker (or any other price comparison website) open in another tab to check where the best price is as the odds can - and indeed will! - change so the identified opportunities may not exist if and when you look. We scrape relatively regularly, but it depends on how up to date our sources are. This is where the “Value Thresholds” should be used and you should look for odds over the values suggested for each team.

What to watch out for?

Watch out for the threshold. This is the tipping point at which we calculate value to exist. Above that, and you should consider betting. Below that, definitely not. So watch out for that threshold and any movements around that.

Try not to worry!

It can feel very irritating when you ‘miss’ a bet and lose out on some potential profits. But try not to think too much about this and end up chasing other bets. In the long run, it won’t matter too much and in some cases you may actually miss out betting on matches that lose! So it will all come out in the wash. You aren’t required to wager every time, so try and stay calm and emotionless about the money you are putting down.

Other FAQs

Why don't you just keep quiet and do this yourself?

We do use these to bet ourselves, and quite successfully. However, we see no reason we can't also sell these tips to others as well!

Also, some of our accounts are beginning to be capped on their activity. We're unsure at this stage whether it is because we are successful, or if it is just a blanket policy across certain leagues, but either way, the opportunities are limited doing this solo.

Do you guarantee these tips / advice / that I will make money?

No, obviously not. Ultimately, this can be thought of a little like investing in financial markets under the advice of an experienced investor. We have a strategy and take 'advice' from the Algorithm, which we think gives us an edge over the rest of the market. Indeed, at the moment, this appears to be true.

However, this may not continue, and we can place no guarantees on future profits. Similar to financial advice ("the value of your investment may go down as well as up") - and despite being a predictions site! - we don't actually know what will happen in the future. We think it will continue, and see no reason why our strategy will stop working, but we just can't guarantee that for sure.

Please gamble responsibly. If you are doing this to make a quick profit, or looking for guaranteed winners, this is probably not the thing for you. Don't gamble what you are not prepared to lose, and don't come crying to us if your bet doesn't come off - we cannot guarantee any returns. After all, this is sport - and that's why we love it!

I’ve seen a few of the predictions and tips, and they look really dodgy. What’s up with that?

This is a good question. And we always say, if you disagree with the prediction and/or the tip - then don't bet!

The Algorithm looks at a wide variety of things before a match in order to determine the likely outcome, but it doesn't take into account everything, and it's entirely possible that it may be wrong. If you think the prediction is out, and therefore the tip, you shouldn’t bet.

Always use your intuition on top of the recommendations to decide your course of action. Humans and machines working and thinking together very often produce better results than either operating alone!

Anything else?

That’s probably all for now, if you’ve any other questions - drop us a message and we’ll get back to you as soon as we can. Good luck!