Welcome to the Weekend Preview 9 April. We have a really exciting weekend of rugby action as we get to the quarter-final of the European Champions Cup stage with some incredibly tasty matchups. Here we breakdown each match, have a look at the predictions and see if there is any value in the Champions Cup market.
The Champions Cup Quarter-Finals
Bath v Northampton
The quarter-final action starts on Friday night with the all-English affair as Bath take on Northampton at home. Bath and Northampton are battling towards the top of the table and are the leading favourites to take the Premiership title, so this is the best that England has to offer. With Bath being at home, we are leaning towards a Bath victory, although Northampton do have a strong chance at 27%. Still, we consider Bath favourites, with a 30 points to 22 predicted margin. Last weekend, Bath reached the quarter-finals by beating Saracens 31 points to 22 in a healthy victory, although it was closer than a previous recent fixture in the Prem. Still, it was a good victory. Northampton had a closer than expected run in at home to Castres, where they came out victors 49 points to 41 in an entertaining match. It should be a very good game. As always, all eyes will be on Henry Pollock and Finn Russell to ignite proceedings, and we predict that Bath will come out on top.
Looking at the market for this game, there is not much value as the bookies seem to have priced it fairly accurately. They give Bath a slightly higher chance of victory, but it is marginal, so maybe one to watch is Northampton, but look for anything at 4.66 and above for value.
Glasgow v Toulon
On Saturday afternoon, we have Glasgow at home to Toulon in what should be another close match. We have Glasgow as slight favourites with a predicted scoreline of 25 points to 17, Glasgow with a 72% chance of victory and Toulon at 25%. Both teams sit at number 10 and number 11 in the current rankings, so both are fairly outside contenders for the overall title. In their last five matches, Toulon have won four, with Glasgow’s only victory coming in January 2024. However, Glasgow have won all 10 of their last 10 matches at home, and Toulon have won just once in their last 10 away matches. So it looks quite possibly like a Glasgow victory here, although do not be surprised if it is close.
Looking at the markets, it is a similar story, with the bookies pricing it fairly accurately and giving Glasgow a marginally bigger chance. So again, there could potentially be value on Toulon, and look out for anything above 5.29.
Leinster v Sale
On Saturday afternoon, the third of the four quarter-finals sees what will be the most one-sided game of the round, with Leinster taking on Sale at home. We have Leinster at a 92% chance of success, which is about as high as it gets at this stage of a major tournament, with Sale having only a 6% chance, so we are heavily backing Leinster. Leinster at home, have won their last eight in a row and nine out of their last 10 matches in the Champions Cup. Sale, away from home across all competitions, have won just four of their last 10. It is simply a one-sided game. Leinster are our second favourites to win the tournament outright, so do not expect a close contest. In terms of betting, the bookies and the model are fairly well aligned and there is no value to be found here.
Bordeaux v Toulouse
The final game of the round, and in all likelihood a preview of the final itself, is the most highly anticipated quarter-final of them all. At just the quarter-final stage, an unfortunate draw has brought the two big French heavyweights Toulouse and Bordeaux together once again. Bordeaux’s home advantage gives them the slight edge, but it is very close. As the Top 14 standings show, although Bordeaux are the darlings of the sport at the moment on the back of Louis Bielle-Biarrey, who is arguably the best player in the world right now, Toulouse lead the Top 14 by a significant margin and will in all likelihood win the league title, while Bordeaux sit in fourth place some 12 points adrift. This will be a very close game. In the last five meetings, Bordeaux have won three and Toulouse two, with their most recent encounter in March seeing Bordeaux win 44 – 20, and the game before that in October going emphatically to Toulouse 56 – 13, so home advantage could well prove significant. In the European Cup over the last 10 matches, Bordeaux have won the lot, whereas Toulouse have won seven out of 10. This could genuinely go either way.
We have Bordeaux at a 59% chance of victory with a predicted scoreline of 25 – 23, which really does highlight what a coin toss this is. The bookies have it even tighter, at 51% Bordeaux and 45% Toulouse, so given we give Bordeaux a 59% chance, there is possible value there. Look out for anything above 2.08.
Overall Tournament Chances
Looking at the overall tournament picture, Toulouse lead the way with a 28% chance of lifting the trophy despite being seeded tenth, a reflection of both their Top 14 dominance and their pedigree in this competition. Leinster and Bordeaux are locked together at 24% each, making those three the clear frontrunners. What is particularly interesting is that Bordeaux and Toulouse, two of the three title favourites, face each other this weekend, meaning one of those 24% chances is eliminated before the semi-finals are even reached. Leinster, by contrast, have the most favourable path this weekend against Sale and will be expected to advance comfortably. Toulon sit at 6% and Glasgow at 11%, so while both are capable of causing upsets, the model considers them unlikely to go the distance. Bath and Northampton, the two English clubs meeting on Friday night, both have genuine semi-final ambitions but their chances of winning the tournament outright are slim according to the model. In short, this weekend’s draw has done the competition a favour by serving up what is in all likelihood a final preview at the quarter-final stage, and whoever emerges from Bordeaux on Saturday night will carry genuine title winning momentum into the semi-finals.
Similarly to the actual quarter-finals, there is no real value in the outright winner market either, with all teams being fairly accurately priced. One to look out for is Toulouse as if they get past Bordeaux those odds will come tumbling down. Value above 4.6 currently.
Challenge Cup Quarter Finals
The second tier Challenge Cup is where the most evenly contested action of the weekend may well be found, with all four quarter-finals genuinely too close to call. On Friday night, Ulster host La Rochelle in what promises to be a tight affair, before Saturday brings Montpellier against Connacht, another match that could comfortably go either way. Also on Saturday, Zebre host Dragons with home advantage providing a marginal edge. Sunday rounds out the quarter-finals with Benetton hosting Exeter. Across all four fixtures the model sees very little to separate the teams, making the Challenge Cup this weekend arguably the more unpredictable and entertaining watch.
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