The limp 2–0 defeat in the derby was the final blow to any lingering hope of a late surge for Manchester City, even with Arsenal only drawing away at Nottingham Forest
Can Reborn Manchester United Stop The Arsenal Procession?
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview for Friday 23 January — and it’s starting to feel like the Premier League title race is slipping quietly into its endgame.
“City are favourites in the derby, however, they will be desperate not to drop points as to lose further ground to Arsenal will surely signal the end of a title shot“
That was our big cutout quote last weekend. And guess what? City lost 2-0 to Manchester United, and lo and behold the title race is all but over. The limp 2–0 defeat in the derby was the final blow to any lingering hope of a late surge, even with Arsenal only drawing away at Nottingham Forest. The damage is done. Arsenal remain firmly in control, and despite the odd stumble, the model now has them at a whopping 90% chance of winning the title. At this stage of the season, that’s usually terminal. City look a shadow of themselves, Aston Villa have failed to capitalise, and Liverpool are way off the pace to mount a serious challenge. It’s not mathematically over — but it’s very close to being practically over.
This weekend Arsenal face Manchester United at home. Manchester United are flying after the derby win, and with Michael Carrick as interim manager (side-note: with the shelf life of managers so short these days, what is the difference between an interim manager and a proper one?) could they spring another shock?
Premier League Predictions
Manchester City host Wolves knowing anything less than a routine win would confirm their slide into damage-limitation mode. With the signing of Guehi to shore up their defence, and Semenyo in attack, City are probably planning for next season more than anything else at this stage. However, the model gives them over a three-in-four chance of victory this weekend. Liverpool travel to Bournemouth and remain favourites, though their season has been defined by ups and downs. West Ham versus Sunderland and Burnley against Tottenham are both finely balanced contests where neither side inspires much confidence, while Fulham v Brighton looks like another game where the draw looms large.
The headline fixture arrives on Sunday at the Emirates. Arsenal v Manchester United has rarely felt this one-sided on paper. Arsenal are close to 70% to win, United barely registering as a threat. The algo suggests that it’s another opportunity for Arsenal to tighten their grip at the top. However, Carrick has reinvigorated Manchester United, but it would be a real surprise if they win at the Emirates. Elsewhere, Crystal Palace v Chelsea and Newcastle v Aston Villa both sit firmly in “could go either way” territory, while Brentford are expected to do enough at home to Nottingham Forest. Everton v Leeds on Monday night closes the round with Everton holding a narrow edge in a match that could matter at the bottom end.
An Update on Serie A
Often the league with the most action at the top, this year is probably going to turn into a procession. Despite just three points separating the top four on the table, our model now gives Inter an 81% chance of lifting the Scudetto, reflecting not just their league position but their consistency, goal difference, and experience in closing seasons out. AC Milan and Napoli remain mathematically close, but their title probabilities lag well behind, while Roma’s challenge looks more fragile despite staying within touching distance. In short, the table suggests a race, but the underlying numbers point firmly in one direction — Inter are increasingly in control, even if the gap doesn’t yet show it.
Scotland – where the action is
For the first time this season, and probably a decade, CELTIC ARE NO LONGER FAVOURITES TO WIN THE TITLE! Hearts have gone ahead on 44% with Celtic behind on 32%. The gap is currently 6 points. However, this weekend Celtic head to Tynecastle and a victory could cut the gap to just three points. But Hearts know that a victory would be a giant step towards the title.
Football4Cast Tip of the Weekend
Over in Germany, Eintracht Frankfurt are undervalued at home to Valladolid. Look for odds of 2.47+.
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