City are favourites in the derby, however, they will be desperate not to drop points as to lose further ground to Arsenal will surely signal the end of a title shot
Premier League Returns – Chaos, Changes and a Title Race Nearing Its End
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview for 16 January 2026. After the FA Cup hiatus, the Premier League returns with a weekend that feels heavier than a normal restart. Managerial upheaval, pressure at both ends of the table, and a title race that is rapidly narrowing all combine to give this round real edge.
Manchester United have once again pressed the self-destruct button. Ruben Amorim has been dismissed after relationships reportedly broke down — a familiar story at Old Trafford. The irony is hard to ignore: United were on track for their best finish in years relative to squad quality. Expectations were unrealistic, patience nonexistent. Michael Carrick now steps in, but the reality is stark. This is a bang-average squad with structural issues far beyond the head coach. Immediate improvement is unlikely.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have followed a similar script. Enzo Maresca has been moved on and replaced by Liam Rosenior. It is another example of a club still searching for coherence rather than continuity, and the short-term impact remains uncertain.
Premier League Predictions
Manchester City head to Manchester United for the derby in a deeply unsettled moment for the hosts. United are once again in transition after the dismissal of Ruben Amorim, a move that feels depressingly familiar rather than corrective. Michael Carrick steps in with limited time and a squad that remains structurally average, short on control in midfield and reliability at the back. City arrive as deserved favourites, however, they will be desperate not to drop points as to lose further ground to Arsenal will surely signal the end of a title shot.
At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea are rated at 51% against Brentford, with the draw at 27% and the visitors at 23%. It is a slight edge rather than a strong signal, suggesting Chelsea are more likely than not to take the points, but with limited separation.
Tottenham are favoured at home to West Ham, carrying a 53% win probability. The draw sits at 26%, while West Ham are rated at 21%. The model leans towards a Spurs victory without implying dominance. New signing Connor Gallagher will surely boost Spurs and send West Ham further into the mire.
At the Stadium of Light, Sunderland and Crystal Palace are separated by almost nothing. Palace edge it at 37%, Sunderland follow closely at 34%, and the draw stands at 29%, making this the most finely balanced fixture of the round.
Liverpool stand out as the strongest home pick of the weekend. They are rated at 71% to beat Burnley, with the draw at 17% and Burnley at 12%. This is one of the clearest predictions on the slate.
Leeds United versus Fulham is another game defined by small margins. Leeds are given a 40% chance, Fulham 31%, and the draw 29%, underlining how open this contest is.
Arsenal travel to Nottingham Forest with a clear advantage. The model gives Arsenal a 62% chance of victory, compared to 18% for Forest and 20% for the draw, reinforcing their position as firm favourites. Arsenal should keep their gap at the top and Forest are week by week being dragged into the relegation battle.
Away at Wolves, Newcastle are strongly backed at 58%, with Wolves at 20% and the draw at 23%. The forecast points decisively towards the visitors who sill be looking to keep their good league form going. Wolves are on the up under Kieran McKenna but it is still a long struggle to safety.
At Villa Park, Aston Villa are rated at 63% against Everton. The draw is 22%, while Everton sit at 15%, indicating a good chance of victory for Villa and keeping their slim shot at the title alive for another weekend.
The weekend concludes with Brighton hosting Bournemouth on Monday night. Brighton hold a modest edge at 51%, with the draw at 27% and Bournemouth at 22%, suggesting a competitive game with the balance slightly favouring the hosts.
Premier League Season Outlook
The title race is beginning to look one-sided. Arsenal are striding clear, and if Manchester City drop points this weekend, it may effectively be over. The gap is no longer just numerical — it is psychological.
At the bottom, Burnley, West Ham and Wolves are increasingly cut adrift. The relegation probabilities are stark. Nottingham Forest are not yet safe either; while not in immediate freefall, they remain close enough to danger that a poor run could drag them fully into the fight.
Scotland – where the action is (Hearts v Celtic)
As we mentioned last week, of all the main leagues in Europe, Scotland is the one to look out for. Could Celtic really blow the title? At the start of the season they had a 90+% win probability. That has been slashed as Hearts made their first run at a title in an age. Rangers have also joined the party as Celtic imploded under Nancy. They have abandoned that experiment as O’Neill returns to take the reins.
So Celtic head to Tynecastle, still statistical favourites. However, with the gap at 6 points between the two sides, a victory here for Hearts would be a giant stride towards the title. Can they do it? The model suggests not…
Football4Cast Tip of the Weekend
Over in Spain and La Liga 2, AD Ceuta FC are undervalued at home to Valladolid. Look for odds of 2.06+.
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